1. The season will (mostly) go according to plan. College football often has a way of throwing us curveballs, but I honestly can't see one for the life of me. If we're talking about a four-team playoff, there are really only 12 teams or so that I honestly think have a chance. Usually it feels more wide open, but if one team outside of Florida State, Auburn, Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, or Baylor finds a way to sneak in, I'd be completely shocked. Even I normally love a BCS conference sleeper, but I don't think anybody will have a shocking season to get in. I'd say Missouri and Duke were two of the bigger surprises from last year and odds are we'll get a couple of those types of teams, but as far as the playoffs go, nobody will surprise. Maybe (and this is a big maybe) Kansas State, Georgia, or Wisconsin could put together a top-4 caliber season.
2. The FCS will get their upsets. We get them every year, but here are the games where I think the teams with a scholarship disadvantage pull it out: Cal Poly over New Mexico State, Montana over Wyoming, Liberty over Appalachian State, Towson over West Virginia, Northern Iowa over Hawaii, Bethune-Cookman over FIU, and Southeastern Louisiana over Tulane. And for some extra, nail-biting scares: Eastern Washington vs. Washington, Montana State vs. Arkansas State, James Madison vs. Maryland, Richmond vs. Virginia, William & Mary vs. Virginia Tech, New Hampshire vs. Toledo, Villanova vs. Syracuse, Morgan State vs. Eastern Michigan, North Dakota State vs. Iowa State, Northern Iowa vs. Iowa, Eastern Kentucky vs. Miami OH, Fordham vs. Army, Chattanooga vs. Central Michigan, and Abilene Christian vs. Georgia State.
3. Coaches will get canned. Coaching jobs after this past year are actually looking pretty stable, but here are the jobs I see opening up due to performance issues: Virginia, SMU (mutually beneficial separation, Jones goes to Hawaii), Illinois, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Florida International, New Mexico State, UL Monroe, and that's it. Guys on the verge that I see sticking around for an extra year might be Paul Johnson, Justin Fuente (Memphis will make strides, but fall short of a bowl berth, putting him on the 2015 hot seat), Bill Blakenship, Kevin Wilson (Indiana goes an exciting, competitive 5-7), Paul Rhoads, Skip Holtz, Jeff Quinn, Dan Enos, Bob Davie, Ron Carragher, Kyle Whittingham, and Butch Jones. Troy might have an opening as Larry Blakeny has probably got to get tired of coaching and going 6-6 at some point.
4. Group of 5 Representative is Marshall. I don't feel too confident in that prediction as I could see Marshall stumbling against Akron, Middle Tennessee, Rice, or in the championship game. Going undefeated is hard and all of the above teams I mentioned will be bowling as I see it. I still thinks the odds are in their favor. Houston has the next best chance but I think Cincinnati and Boise State will be in the mix. Longshots are Bowling Green, UL Lafayette (very good team, but games at Boise and at Ole Miss sets up for a 10-2 campaign), UCF, and Fresno State.
5. Michigan State backs into the playoff. The Spartan defense has been successful in recent seasons because they play tight man coverage and are on the opposing receivers like glue. Add in great defensive line play and good tackling from the linebackers, and you have a great defense. Michigan State is breaking in a lot of new faces. I'll be getting way ahead of myself, but in Week 2 when Michigan State takes on Oregon in Autzen, Sparty will get smoked. Predicted score: 44-17. Sparty's season is over. Or is it? I think Michigan State will run the table the rest of the way and there will be a lot of debate as to whether or not to let MSU in at the end of the year. The committee will sympathize with Michigan State and, controversially, put them in over the second-place Pac-12 team either (a 10-2) Oregon or UCLA.
6. Year of the service academy. All service academies will get into the bowl season. Army's new head coach Jeff Monken will do a better job at executing the triple option than his predecessors and he will get the Black Knights back into the bowl picture with a 7-5 record (two wins vs FCS schools, but the games against a good Fordham, a decent Ball State, and Rice could make or break their season). It'll be tough as they need 7 wins, but they can do it. Air Force will be one of the more improved teams in the non-P5 ranks as they go 7-5. Navy will take their usual 8 victories with their annual defeat of Army. Either way, I think these teams will be a lot of fun to watch.
7. Surprising bowl teams. In addition to Army and Air Force, I think the trio of South Alabama, Texas State, and UTSA all make their postseason debut in the same year. UConn and Temple will surprise some with 6-6 records to get them into bowl games. Akron has been improving under Terry Bowden and this is their year to finally crack the bowl picture. I liked the idea of Memphis and Indiana improving enough to get bowl eligible, but I think their schedules are prohibitive for that. I think they go 5-7.
8. Pac-12 ties SEC in conference strength. I think the Pac-12 has been pretty close to the SEC in terms of depth recently and while I think conference warring is overrated, the Pac-12 will boast some of the better QB play in the country. On the flipside, the SEC will breaking in a lot of new quarterbacks. Sean Mannion, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley, Cody Kessler, Connor Halliday, Cyler Miles, Taylor Kelly, and Kevin Hogan? A good mix of talent. Plus a good handful of these Pac-12 teams will have a defense that can keep them in ball games.
9. Jameis repeats. Is there anyone that can out-do Winston this year for the Heisman? I can't see it. Hundley won't have the eye-popping numbers, Mariota will but Oregon will have to be undefeated in order for him to get any kind of edge, Yeldon will share the rock too much with Henry, and that's about it really.
10. And for your 2015 CFB Playoff...It will be Florida State, Alabama, UCLA, and Michigan State. As I said earlier, MSU will probably be the one that causes a crapstorm as the media dumps on the B1G without giving them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to an early-season road game against a great team that they weren't ready to play. Michigan State has an older defense, but they have to learn how to gel together and they won't be ready. They will improve as the season goes on. FSU plays a much harder schedule, but most teams will still not be a match. Even if they miraculously drop one game against Notre Dame, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Florida, or Clemson, they still will not get left out in the cold at 12-1. Alabama will beak in a new QB, but they won't lose more than once. UCLA also drops a game, but manages to beat Oregon at home. The real debate will be between two two-loss SEC teams (two between South Carolina, LSU, Auburn, or Georgia), the two two-loss Pac-12 teams (maybe Stanford or Oregon), the two two-loss Big 12 teams (Baylor, Oklahoma), or the B1G champion (12-1 MSU). The selection committee frustrates almost everyone by taking Michigan State with some hamfisted reasoning that nobody buys. People will learn that this might slightly be better than the BCS, but it's not fundamentally different.
11. And the winner is...Florida State. Duh.
