Eric's 100% Inaccurate Bowl Projections: Week 12
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:56 am
With some surprising results, I had to completely re-do these. Remember, I'm only doing this to keep my word about the every-four-weeks thing. None of us know how on Earth this will pan out
. Feel free to disregard
New Mexico: Oregon State vs. UNLV
Las Vegas: Boise State vs. USC
Idaho Potato: Ball State vs. Washington State*
New Orleans: UL Lafayette vs. Tulane
Beef O’Brady’s: Middle Tennessee vs. Pitt*
Hawaii: Utah State vs. North Texas
Little Caesar’s Pizza: Northern Illinois vs. Syracuse*
Poinsettia: San Diego State vs. Arizona*
Military: Maryland vs. ECU
Texas: Iowa vs. Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger: Washington vs. BYU
Buffalo Wild Wings: Kansas State vs. Michigan
Pinstripe: Notre Dame* vs. Rutgers
Belk: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Russell Athletic: Miami vs. Louisville
Armed Forces: Colorado State vs. Navy
Music City: North Carolina vs. Ole Miss
Alamo: Arizona State vs. Texas
Holiday: Stanford vs. Oklahoma
Sun: UCLA vs. Virginia Tech
Independence: Boston College vs. Arkansas State*
Liberty: Vanderbilt vs. Marshall
Chick-fil-A: Duke vs. Georgia
Gator: Minnesota vs. LSU
Capital One: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Outback: Nebraska vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas: Rice vs. Texas State*
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta: Baylor vs. Fresno State
Orange: Clemson vs. Wisconsin
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
BBVA Compass: Houston vs. Toledo*
GoDaddy: Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State
Added:
San Diego State
Texas State
Washington State
Middle Tennessee
Boston College
Syracuse
North Carolina
Colorado State
Dropped:
Utah
Tulsa
Ohio
Northwestern
Wyoming
NC State
Tennessee
San Jose State
The BCS at-large scenario: Stanford's loss tonight opens the door wide for Wisconsin. It'll be tough to climb high enough in the rankings, but I think they'll get there barely. Two B1G teams bumps everyone up a notch and bumps the Pac-12 down a notch. Wazzu beats Utah to get eligible and goes to the Idaho Potato Bowl who won't fill their MWC bid (SJSU loses out). Arizona goes to Poinsettia to replace Army. The B1G loses its spot in the Heart of Dallas.
My Chick-fil-a Bowl gave me a little bit of pause. Would Duke really take that spot? I think there's a likelihood that they do. I have Duke winning out and getting slaughtered by Florida State, but their regular season will put them ahead of everyone else. The Chick-fil-a taking a 7-5 Georgia wouldn't be out of the question as it would likely insure a more competitive game than LSU (who could do a number on Duke) and would be a better draw than Ole Miss. Georgia will be 5-3 in SEC play so they will be in that mix with a team like LSU, who I have at 4-4. I could see this being Miami/LSU which would be more attractive, but they may like Duke as a bit of a novelty selection.
The ACC bowl games are in complete flux. I think North Carolina to Nashville and Maryland to DC would be pure travel picks over Syracuse and Boston College who will have equal records to UNC and better records in conference to Maryland. Boston College gets exiled to Shreveport to face either UL Monroe or Arkansas State, whichever the bowl execs feel would be better. Arkansas State would travel to northeast Louisiana and are a better team than Monroe, so that's how I went there.
I don't know how the bowls will treat an undefeated Northern Illinois. Do they get set up with the Sun Belt champion? Do they face a 6-6 at-large from the ACC in Detroit? Who knows. As it stands, they would have to give NIU some special treatment and I doubt that will be the case. I still feel like they could arrange a Boise/NIU matchup in Boise, but that's speculation on my part. I haven't heard any sorts of rumors about that. I went with the conservative prediction and had them in Detroit. Buffalo gets left out of the picture with an 8-4 record for 7-5 Texas State, who gets the homer pick in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Buffalo is not a very attractive at-large selection with their lack of history, distance from possible bowl slots, and questions about how well they would travel. One scenario could be where Notre Dame does not go to the Pinstripe Bowl. The Pinstripe Bowl could conceivably hook up Rutgers and Buffalo in what would be an interesting, almost intra-state matchup. Probably unlikely since they could probably nab one of those northeastern ACC at-larges.
The only teams seriously left on the bowl-eligibility bubble are as follows: SMU, Pitt, Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, San Jose State, UNLV, Central Michigan, Troy, Washington State, Mississippi State, and UL Monroe. As it stands, most of these teams wouldn't make it in anyway if they did get to six wins considering there figures to be quite a surplus of eligible teams. I think SMU has a legit shot at getting to 6-6 which would require either a win against Houston or UCF. I feel a defeat of Houston in Houston is a very real possibility and they will push UCF to the brink. I think they lose both in close fashion which ends their season 5-7. FAU could easily get there, but they wouldn't be much of a draw. They could get the Beef O'Brady's over a more deserving Middle Tennessee, sending MTSU into the at-large pool, but I think an upset from New Mexico State will squash any hopes of that. San Jose State could easily beat Navy at home, but I like Navy there. CMU has no chance whatsoever, but FWIW, they do get eligible. Troy doesn't make it. Mississippi State needs to beat both Arkansas and Ole Miss, not happening. Tennessee needs a win over Vandy and with their QB situation being in the shape it is, I highly doubt that happens. UNLV will get there with a split against San Diego State and Air Force for the first time in what feels like forever.


New Mexico: Oregon State vs. UNLV
Las Vegas: Boise State vs. USC
Idaho Potato: Ball State vs. Washington State*
New Orleans: UL Lafayette vs. Tulane
Beef O’Brady’s: Middle Tennessee vs. Pitt*
Hawaii: Utah State vs. North Texas
Little Caesar’s Pizza: Northern Illinois vs. Syracuse*
Poinsettia: San Diego State vs. Arizona*
Military: Maryland vs. ECU
Texas: Iowa vs. Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger: Washington vs. BYU
Buffalo Wild Wings: Kansas State vs. Michigan
Pinstripe: Notre Dame* vs. Rutgers
Belk: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Russell Athletic: Miami vs. Louisville
Armed Forces: Colorado State vs. Navy
Music City: North Carolina vs. Ole Miss
Alamo: Arizona State vs. Texas
Holiday: Stanford vs. Oklahoma
Sun: UCLA vs. Virginia Tech
Independence: Boston College vs. Arkansas State*
Liberty: Vanderbilt vs. Marshall
Chick-fil-A: Duke vs. Georgia
Gator: Minnesota vs. LSU
Capital One: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Outback: Nebraska vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas: Rice vs. Texas State*
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta: Baylor vs. Fresno State
Orange: Clemson vs. Wisconsin
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
BBVA Compass: Houston vs. Toledo*
GoDaddy: Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State
Added:
San Diego State
Texas State
Washington State
Middle Tennessee
Boston College
Syracuse
North Carolina
Colorado State
Dropped:
Utah
Tulsa
Ohio
Northwestern
Wyoming
NC State
Tennessee
San Jose State
The BCS at-large scenario: Stanford's loss tonight opens the door wide for Wisconsin. It'll be tough to climb high enough in the rankings, but I think they'll get there barely. Two B1G teams bumps everyone up a notch and bumps the Pac-12 down a notch. Wazzu beats Utah to get eligible and goes to the Idaho Potato Bowl who won't fill their MWC bid (SJSU loses out). Arizona goes to Poinsettia to replace Army. The B1G loses its spot in the Heart of Dallas.
My Chick-fil-a Bowl gave me a little bit of pause. Would Duke really take that spot? I think there's a likelihood that they do. I have Duke winning out and getting slaughtered by Florida State, but their regular season will put them ahead of everyone else. The Chick-fil-a taking a 7-5 Georgia wouldn't be out of the question as it would likely insure a more competitive game than LSU (who could do a number on Duke) and would be a better draw than Ole Miss. Georgia will be 5-3 in SEC play so they will be in that mix with a team like LSU, who I have at 4-4. I could see this being Miami/LSU which would be more attractive, but they may like Duke as a bit of a novelty selection.
The ACC bowl games are in complete flux. I think North Carolina to Nashville and Maryland to DC would be pure travel picks over Syracuse and Boston College who will have equal records to UNC and better records in conference to Maryland. Boston College gets exiled to Shreveport to face either UL Monroe or Arkansas State, whichever the bowl execs feel would be better. Arkansas State would travel to northeast Louisiana and are a better team than Monroe, so that's how I went there.
I don't know how the bowls will treat an undefeated Northern Illinois. Do they get set up with the Sun Belt champion? Do they face a 6-6 at-large from the ACC in Detroit? Who knows. As it stands, they would have to give NIU some special treatment and I doubt that will be the case. I still feel like they could arrange a Boise/NIU matchup in Boise, but that's speculation on my part. I haven't heard any sorts of rumors about that. I went with the conservative prediction and had them in Detroit. Buffalo gets left out of the picture with an 8-4 record for 7-5 Texas State, who gets the homer pick in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Buffalo is not a very attractive at-large selection with their lack of history, distance from possible bowl slots, and questions about how well they would travel. One scenario could be where Notre Dame does not go to the Pinstripe Bowl. The Pinstripe Bowl could conceivably hook up Rutgers and Buffalo in what would be an interesting, almost intra-state matchup. Probably unlikely since they could probably nab one of those northeastern ACC at-larges.
The only teams seriously left on the bowl-eligibility bubble are as follows: SMU, Pitt, Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, San Jose State, UNLV, Central Michigan, Troy, Washington State, Mississippi State, and UL Monroe. As it stands, most of these teams wouldn't make it in anyway if they did get to six wins considering there figures to be quite a surplus of eligible teams. I think SMU has a legit shot at getting to 6-6 which would require either a win against Houston or UCF. I feel a defeat of Houston in Houston is a very real possibility and they will push UCF to the brink. I think they lose both in close fashion which ends their season 5-7. FAU could easily get there, but they wouldn't be much of a draw. They could get the Beef O'Brady's over a more deserving Middle Tennessee, sending MTSU into the at-large pool, but I think an upset from New Mexico State will squash any hopes of that. San Jose State could easily beat Navy at home, but I like Navy there. CMU has no chance whatsoever, but FWIW, they do get eligible. Troy doesn't make it. Mississippi State needs to beat both Arkansas and Ole Miss, not happening. Tennessee needs a win over Vandy and with their QB situation being in the shape it is, I highly doubt that happens. UNLV will get there with a split against San Diego State and Air Force for the first time in what feels like forever.