The CCR computer picks

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Spence
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The CCR computer picks

Postby Spence » Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:56 pm

CCR was dead on in this game. It had Wake a 3.64 favorite and the final score was 24-21. Not only did it pick the game right this week, but it picked the game right in the preseason. Big props to CCR who really doesn't get enough credit for it's picks by the board members. Picking in the 75% range for all D1A games is pretty good as those of us who try to pick only 20 games a week can attest.
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Dossenator » Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:53 pm

I hope the CCR pick for the ARk vs Auburn game is wrong. Vegas has Ark 3 point favorites, but CCR has Auburn 1.63 point favorites. When I saw this pick I became a little nervous...especially since they picked WF over Florida St and Vegas had Florida St favorites as well.
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Eric » Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:00 pm

Our percentages would be much lower because we're usually picking games that are anywhere in between a 60/40 shot of happening. They aren't all tossups, so I wouldn't say the CFP pick'em is a 50/50 kind of thing. If we were picking the Eastern Michigan vs. Howard and Maine vs. UConn games, our percentage would be a lot higher.

But still, the CCR is pretty good. I don't know how it knows how to pick those dead-even games that I always seem to get wrong :roll:

Maybe I should just copy my picks right off of the dang computer :lol:
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Eric » Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:01 pm

Dossenator, you're not alone; the computer likes Purdue this week I think :shock:
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Spence » Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:34 pm

I picked Purdue this week, but it was tough. Michigan has always handled the Purdue spread because it has always been a pass only offense by Purdue (nicknamed basketball on grass). Purdue has ran the ball well all this year, except for last week. They are missing their best cover guy this week and that will hurt and they can't stop Mike Hart IMO. I look for it to be a high scoring affair and Purdue I think Purdue will when if they can run the ball enough to get their receivers open and they don't let Michigan control the clock.

The Oklahoma - Missouri game was the hardest for me to pick. Missouri runs a gadget offense and you never know when an offense like that is going to stall. I was all set to take a chance on Missouri until I found out that this is the last major hurdle for Oklahoma. If I know that, then Bob Stoops does too and I think he will have them well prepared for Missouri. So I decided to take the team with the most talent and went with Oklahoma.

The CCR computer picks every game. What is most interesting to me is seeing how it plays out all the games before the adjustments during the season. If you can pick a high percentage of the games before the first kickoff of the season, that is a good system.
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Eric » Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:43 pm

I'm in trouble. I disagreed with the CCR a lot for the CFP pick'em.

I do change a lot of my picks during the week. I do like Iowa, Minnesota, Texas A&M, Middle Tennessee, and ECU when I looked more into it.
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby openSkies » Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:45 pm

I think we should have the CCR rankings included as a contender in the Pick 'Em just to see how everyone compares.
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Spence » Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:49 pm

I think that would be cool. Playing against the computer would make it more interesting.
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Spence » Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:50 pm

Better install another fan on the computer, though, when it sees Eric's picks every week it may blow a gasket. :lol:
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby openSkies » Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:58 pm

Spence wrote:Better install another fan on the computer, though, when it sees Eric's picks every week it may blow a gasket. :lol:


Haha.

Well I'll get on that sometime. I'm interested to see how it does. But uh, it's a bit hard to do with just one person (to much back-and-forth-and-back-and-forth to tally it up). I'm going to wait until Dave has some free time to help out with it (he can probably tell me what the computer picked from memory).
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby RazorHawk » Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:23 pm

I go to the site below and copy and paste the rankings into a master spreadsheet that calculates all the ratings compared to the point spread. Most of the so-called experts actually do not pick much if any over .500 versus the point spread. Many are well under the 50% mark. I guess that is why the bookies usually drive nice cars and live in big houses. :D

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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Eric » Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:48 pm

This is sort of random, but Matt, did you ever notice on the "everything now, everything then" ad on the main site, that the player with the leather helmet on is also holding a modern helmet? :)
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby Spence » Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:34 pm

RazorHawk wrote:I go to the site below and copy and paste the rankings into a master spreadsheet that calculates all the ratings compared to the point spread. Most of the so-called experts actually do not pick much if any over .500 versus the point spread. Many are well under the 50% mark. I guess that is why the bookies usually drive nice cars and live in big houses. :D


Over 50% against the spread is really good. Actually when you are picking every game against the spread 50% is outstanding. The trick to winning is picking the right games. You have to remember that the guys who actually set the lines know everything going on with the teams. They pay people to know if the DE went to a party the night before the game or if the place kicker sprained his ankle coming out of his western civ. class. They know things about the teams that the coaches don't know.
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby openSkies » Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:30 pm

Eric wrote:This is sort of random, but Matt, did you ever notice on the "everything now, everything then" ad on the main site, that the player with the leather helmet on is also holding a modern helmet? :)


Yeah, I know. I tried to edit it out but... fat chance.
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Re: The CCR computer picks

Postby openSkies » Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:32 pm

FYI - Dave and I tallied up the computers picks for all the Pick 'Em games. 7th place overall at this point. But only like 8 games out of first.
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