CollegeFootballPoll.com Message Board

All I can tell you is that if FSU could have punched in a few shortish field goals against Miami that went wide right, FSU would have a couple more national championships.

What I like this year that no one talks of, is the kick offs. FSU's kicker is #2 in the country at not having a kick off brought out of the end zone. That good starting defensive field position at the opponent 20 forces the other team to have long drives against your defense.

chooseaspy wrote:What are your general thoughts?

Whoa...I only have specific thoughts, I thought that was the standard of responses...did I misunderstand?

donovan wrote:

chooseaspy wrote:What are your general thoughts?

Whoa...I only have specific thoughts, I thought that was the standard of responses...did I misunderstand?

I always wanted to be a general, never wanted to join the Army, though.

Spence wrote:

donovan wrote:

chooseaspy wrote:What are your general thoughts?

Whoa...I only have specific thoughts, I thought that was the standard of responses...did I misunderstand?

I always wanted to be a general, never wanted to join the Army, though.

Then you should have played QB instead of Safety...

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I made the defensive calls.

On the subject of scoring options, I prefer to score six points every time.

Spence wrote:I made the defensive calls.

On the subject of scoring options, I prefer to score six points every time.

Really?

Because I prefer to score 2 points every time... because that means you are absolutely doing something right... regardless of what-side of the ball you're on...

Though, in retrospect , scoring 6 on the d-side is pretty good too; but scoring 2, also gets your offense the ball back.

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I'll still take six, then one.

In the old days...they use to kick off at the 50 yard line...a lot of drop kicks then and if it went through the goal posts it was one point....what happened to that tradition.

donovan wrote:In the old days...they use to kick off at the 50 yard line...a lot of drop kicks then and if it went through the goal posts it was one point....what happened to that tradition.

I'm not sure, but I think Jim Delaney had something to do with trashing it.

Folks know Flutie for his Hail Mary...but he also,as a 40 something backup QB, kicked the first NFL drop kick for points in 60 years. It's still in the rule books.

It was Flutie's last NFL play in 2006.

billybud wrote:Folks know Flutie for his Hail Mary...but he also,as a 40 something backup QB, kicked the first NFL drop kick for points in 60 years. It's still in the rule books.

It was Flutie's last NFL play in 2006.

I didn't know that...know we are talking good stuff.

I remember the kick now that you said it, but I would have never thought about it again if you had mentioned it. I still think Jim Delaney had something to do with it's use being limited.

billybud wrote:Folks know Flutie for his Hail Mary...but he also,as a 40 something backup QB, kicked the first NFL drop kick for points in 60 years. It's still in the rule books.

It was Flutie's last NFL play in 2006.

I need to see if that is on the web now that you bring it up. I was in another room and missed seeing the highlight. (Too cool.)

Flutie's Kick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Jsz-fSNd4

OK choose you are getting all up in my wheel house, weighted probabilities. (Engineering Major, Minored in ECO) I love these things, for simple math I have found nothing more valuable. But the value is found (much like differential equations, not so simple) in the boundary conditions...and of course defining the process and rigor!

Maybe after 9 hours of sleep in 2 days my brain is not engaged or I scrolled with preconceived expectations. I am missing something, or something is amiss (I think you were trying to short hand some English to not use a full page.)

Ignoring the clean fractional percentiles (that always give me pause) and the chunky increments and accepting the definitions of short, medium, and long...still...

TD with PAT kick:
short: (0.333)(0.95)*7 + (0.333)(0.05)*6= 2.31435 points
average: (0.25)(0.95)*7 + (0.25)(0.05)*6= 1.7375 points
long: (0.1)(0.95)*7 + (0.1)(0.05)*6= 0.695 points

In the first nomial I get the weighted prob. is that for a TD but why 7 if you have not treated the PAT as given, but the 2nd I expect to take care of the word "with" and addition...but how is it 6.

I expected to see for a short TD w/ PAT kick: (0.333)6...ok, 1/3 chance of braking the plain...yielding 2pts. But the PAT is a given not conditional now, so we add (0.95)1 = 0.95
thus...Short TD w/ PAT: (0.333)6 + (0.95)1 = 2.95pts {Definition: Weighted Probability (profit) leveraging <=10 yard position from goal ; Condition: Predetermined TD attempt and Predetermined PA kick.}
The problem here is the envelope of the method, 1st if it is predetermined that means a 4 down consumption will be used to secure it, this is fine if the (0.333) is given for the 4 down case (it can't reflect a 3 down consumption w/ the negotiable option to attempt the field goal.) And then the latter is fine for the PAT if we are saying we are taking the hard to miss 1 point.} And if we take care of that .333 for which case 3 or 4 downs the definition and conditions presupposes the General of the offense (HC or OC) is amassing these returns.

In the observational case you have to include outcomes to get really meaningful data. SO for at or inside the 10

[P% for using 3 downs*(P% for TD in 3 downs)*6pts] + [P% for PAT kick*(P% for making Kick)*1pt] + [100% - (P% for PAT kick)*(P% for 2pt Conv)*2pts] + P% for FG*3pts
+ [100%-(P% for using 3 downs)*(P% for TD in 3 downs)*6pts] + [P% for PAT kick*(P% for making Kick)*1pt] + [100% - P% for PAT kick*(P% for 2pt Conv)*2pts]

This is for the Definition: Total Scoring Probabilities ; Conditions: At or inside the 10 yard line

Admittedly this still does not take into consideration the differentiated losses. Not a huge deal here, TO on downs leaves the ball in good defensive position (in general not factoring in penalty possibilities, still a very real probability.) And does not account for an actual TO and the resulting probabilities for where the other offense will gain possession, and they could in fact score).

As said I may have missed the premise or at least part of it.