BCS National Title Contenders
Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2011 12:00 pm
It's early yet and things have a way of taking care of themselves but there are too many unanswered questions this year.
There are 7 possible undefeated teams of the 10 left undefeated. Here's how it breaks down.
Houston - Easy Schedule, Case Keenum - Nov. 19 at home with SMU is their only hurdle
SMU is a formidable opponent and could de-rail their perfect season but I doubt there is any way that Houston could make it to the title game. Their best hope is for a BCS bowl invite and even undefeated I'm not sure that's a gaurantee. Case Keenum is set to break the all-purpose yard record this weekend against Marshall being only 139 yards shy. He is averaging 380 passing yards a game. He is still 1200 yards shy of Jimmy Chang's all-time passing yards but with 6 games to go and his game average it seems probable. He looks to be going the way of Chang and Brennan. Highest probable draft round is 4th round and it's possible he may not even be drafted. Durability is stated as the biggest reason.
Boise St. - Easier than expected schedule, Kellen Moore - Air Force this weekend?
Boise St. has a few medium difficulty games coming up but with a senior quarterback as good as Moore I can't believe anyone of them has a shot at Boise St. They need help to get in the NCG and they may get it. I think the SEC is likely to produce half the equation but the Big 12 still has a lot of answering to do. It's possible the SEC may be waiting on the computer results to figure out who they play and the funny thing is it could be Boise. Moore looks to be going the same way as Keenum in draft stock. Lots of talent but no where to go. An NCG appearance could put him in the Heisman lead which could make more teams take a closer look at him or make an investment pick. Nothing would make me happier than to see him go in the first couple rounds.
Oklahoma St. - Touch Schedule, Control their own Destiny - The next 6 games are Brutal at best
The heart of their schedule starts now. I hope they aren't looking past Missouri. Missouri has upset the balance of the conference before. Even the remaining down games for OSU are potential pitfalls. Either way Dec. 3rd answers all questions for them. If they run the schedule they're a lock for the NCG. The Big 12 may not have a CCG this year but they leave all the answers on the field.
Oklahoma - Tough Schedule, Control their own Destiny - Same as OSU, Brutal at Best
The early win over FSU made them look very impressive. That win has diminished quite a bit which leaves the win over Texas whom we all know to be without any real horns this year. We'll start to see how good they are with Texas Tech this weekend and a brutal schedule over the next 6 weeks ending with OSU. Jones has looked good but it's the competition he's faced that hasn't been good. Texas Tech has a good passing defense and Jones seems to wilt against a good pass defense. The difference in the game could come down to what Texas Tech is able to do with the turnovers they generate from Jones. I think Oklahoma stumbles down the stretch but the way I'm picking this year my picks are coin tosses of their own. It's their destiny to do with as they please and unblemished on Dec. 4th would lock them into the NCG.
Kansas St. - Tough Schedule, Control their own Destiny - Starting Oct. 29 OU & OSU back to back
Kansas St. is starting to get credit. The win over Miami means a lot more to me than most I suspect. I think Miami is a good football team and I think they will show it more as the season goes on. They handed Baylor their first loss and they managed to slip by Missouri and Texas Tech both of which are capable of knocking off a team. In any other division I would give them a whole lot more stock but starting Oct. 29 they get OU, OSU, A&M, & UT in consecutive weeks. They control their destiny and they have been in more close 4th quarter combat than anyone else in the Big 12 and found a way to win. I think they stumble but they have a chip, a chair, and a national stage.
Alabama - Weathered a tough storm still more to go - LSU Nov.5th and CCG
Why do I doubt Alabama? Richardson is the Alabama offense. When he is contained their offense seems to stall out. The problem is that nobody really can contain him. Alabama's toughest opponent is LSU, obviously, but not obvious because they have the 6th best rushing defense in the country and thats against good competition. They held Oregon to 95 yards on the ground. Oregon has averaged over 350+ yards rushing a game in the 5 games since. If they somehow manage to get past LSU on Nov. 5th they will probably still have to face Georgia in the CCG. Yes, I said GEORGE-AH!!! With Lattimore gone for the season and Garcia gone for good(?) I don't see how South Carolina can survive without another conference loss. Georgia is highly ranked against the run which could also pose problems for Alabama. If they make it to the NCG, pray they don't face Stanford. Richardson is something special and it's possible two of his final college carries include a crystal football and a statue depicting him stiff arming some poor defender.
LSU - I don't like admitting Les Miles can coach so I won't - @ Alabama Nov. 5th and CCG
Here's a stat for you. 80th ranked offense in the country results in the 20th ranked scoring offense in the country and a #1 ranking in the BCS standings. The second worst total offense in the top 10 is owned by Alabama at 24th. The results are astounding averaging 38 points a game with their 80th ranking in total yards. That's efficiency. All other offenses in the top 10 in the BCS are averaging more points except Clemson who is in 21st with 38pts/game as well. When things don't add up to logic in Louisiana you have to wonder if there isn't a little black magic involved. Any way you look at it I'd have to give Miles coach of the year and that's quite an admission from me. They have the magic formula to beat Alabama, run the table, and make it to the NCG but I don't know if there is a crystal ball in the cards for LSU.
Clemson - Great body of work and remaining schedule is lessening - UNC at home this weekend and Wake Nov.12
A winning combination is usually a good offense and a decently stout defense. Clemson is more geared towards a shoot out style game. Their best defensive performance was against VT but it was more VT's offense struggling than Clemson's defense. UNC can score and has a good defense not to mention they are playing for everything this weekend. A third conference loss means they are out of the hunt in the ACC. There seems to be some infighting at Clemson as Mike Bellamy is whining about his number of carries. He may be worth the money they are paying him but he needs to grow up a bit. He accepted the big payout now he needs to accept that he's going to have to play behind Ellington.
Clemson also still has Wake Forest and even though they lost this past weekend Wake still controls it's destiny in the Atlantic. Clemson has both UNC and Wake at home but even if they get to the CCG unblemished it is likely they will run into a revitalized VT team. VT is not a team you want to play twice.
I know the media is hyping the Ga Tech - Clemson game as their toughest remaining conference game but Ga Tech has been backsliding for weeks. Tevin Washington was horrible last year when he came in for Nesbitt who broke his arm during the VT game. Although a better passer than Nesbitt he was still horrible. He started off the year at 60% completion but I figured that would disappear against better competition. He was a surprising 70% completion against UNC but has been sub 30% in the three games since. I had actually circled the Miami game this weekend but was pleasantly and only somewhat surprised by UVA's win. A loss to Miami and Clemson over the next two weeks effectively will end all their hopes.
With Lattimore and Garcia gone there's no reason to think Clemson wouldn't dominate that game.
Stanford - Easier schedule to date, Andrew Luck - Washington this weekend and 3 other quality games
Stanford has all the Luck. They are certainly capable of taking care of business. They've got Washington this weekend but I don't foresee any problems. USC could pose problems in a few weeks but I doubt it. They got Oregon at home and I think it's their biggest remaining test. If they get by Oregon they still have a vastly improved and improving Notre Dame team but it's at home. A CCG against a likely Arizona St. team doesn't seem too daunting either. Even standing undefeated after a CCG they don't control their own destiny. It's almost a lock that an undefeated SEC and BIG 12 would be in the NCG. Stanford is first on the waiting list in my book. Their SoS will pick up dramatically over the next few weeks and they will slowly work their way past Boise St. into the on deck circle but they need others to lose.
Wisconsin - Just getting into their heavier schedule - Mich St. this weekend
Russell Wilson for heisman? After this weekend they are going to be looking for Russell Wilson in a scrap heap. All this hype about Wilson has left me chuckling for weeks. Michigan St. is going to punk him. He is not good under pressure. He makes bad decisions, doesn't pick up the blitz, and just comes completely unraveled. He is Cowering Wolf, Paper Badger, and Mich St. is bringing the crayons. Namely Black, Blue, Purple, maybe some Yellow and red too for good measure. He was on the same path at NC St. when Tech came into his house and roughed him up. It is possible for people to improve. Last year Tech made Jacory Harris(Miami) look horrible. This year Harris is a much better QB and is making MUCH better decisions. Wilson is a good pocket passer but he's not been much of a gamer.
Obviously, I have no expectations that Wisconsin will survive the weekend much less the season.
I think come season end we will have three undefeated teams in LSU, Stanford, and Boise St. It is possible Houston goes undefeated but there is no way they impact the title game. The only way I can see Boise getting in is if Stanford stumbles which is possible.
I think the Big 12 knocks itself out. I think Clemson stumbles at least once. They are a pretty good team but VT is coming on strong since Clemson knocked them out of their daze. Clemson definitely has a shot to go undefeated but it'll be a tight race with Stanford for the second spot in they do. I think Wisconsin stumbles at least once and it's Wilson's fault. I haven't been right a lot this year so I don't put a whole lot of stock in my assessments except for the ACC and Russell Wilson because of being from the ACC. Hopefully though this opens up quite a bit of discussion.
There are 7 possible undefeated teams of the 10 left undefeated. Here's how it breaks down.
Houston - Easy Schedule, Case Keenum - Nov. 19 at home with SMU is their only hurdle
SMU is a formidable opponent and could de-rail their perfect season but I doubt there is any way that Houston could make it to the title game. Their best hope is for a BCS bowl invite and even undefeated I'm not sure that's a gaurantee. Case Keenum is set to break the all-purpose yard record this weekend against Marshall being only 139 yards shy. He is averaging 380 passing yards a game. He is still 1200 yards shy of Jimmy Chang's all-time passing yards but with 6 games to go and his game average it seems probable. He looks to be going the way of Chang and Brennan. Highest probable draft round is 4th round and it's possible he may not even be drafted. Durability is stated as the biggest reason.
Boise St. - Easier than expected schedule, Kellen Moore - Air Force this weekend?
Boise St. has a few medium difficulty games coming up but with a senior quarterback as good as Moore I can't believe anyone of them has a shot at Boise St. They need help to get in the NCG and they may get it. I think the SEC is likely to produce half the equation but the Big 12 still has a lot of answering to do. It's possible the SEC may be waiting on the computer results to figure out who they play and the funny thing is it could be Boise. Moore looks to be going the same way as Keenum in draft stock. Lots of talent but no where to go. An NCG appearance could put him in the Heisman lead which could make more teams take a closer look at him or make an investment pick. Nothing would make me happier than to see him go in the first couple rounds.
Oklahoma St. - Touch Schedule, Control their own Destiny - The next 6 games are Brutal at best
The heart of their schedule starts now. I hope they aren't looking past Missouri. Missouri has upset the balance of the conference before. Even the remaining down games for OSU are potential pitfalls. Either way Dec. 3rd answers all questions for them. If they run the schedule they're a lock for the NCG. The Big 12 may not have a CCG this year but they leave all the answers on the field.
Oklahoma - Tough Schedule, Control their own Destiny - Same as OSU, Brutal at Best
The early win over FSU made them look very impressive. That win has diminished quite a bit which leaves the win over Texas whom we all know to be without any real horns this year. We'll start to see how good they are with Texas Tech this weekend and a brutal schedule over the next 6 weeks ending with OSU. Jones has looked good but it's the competition he's faced that hasn't been good. Texas Tech has a good passing defense and Jones seems to wilt against a good pass defense. The difference in the game could come down to what Texas Tech is able to do with the turnovers they generate from Jones. I think Oklahoma stumbles down the stretch but the way I'm picking this year my picks are coin tosses of their own. It's their destiny to do with as they please and unblemished on Dec. 4th would lock them into the NCG.
Kansas St. - Tough Schedule, Control their own Destiny - Starting Oct. 29 OU & OSU back to back
Kansas St. is starting to get credit. The win over Miami means a lot more to me than most I suspect. I think Miami is a good football team and I think they will show it more as the season goes on. They handed Baylor their first loss and they managed to slip by Missouri and Texas Tech both of which are capable of knocking off a team. In any other division I would give them a whole lot more stock but starting Oct. 29 they get OU, OSU, A&M, & UT in consecutive weeks. They control their destiny and they have been in more close 4th quarter combat than anyone else in the Big 12 and found a way to win. I think they stumble but they have a chip, a chair, and a national stage.
Alabama - Weathered a tough storm still more to go - LSU Nov.5th and CCG
Why do I doubt Alabama? Richardson is the Alabama offense. When he is contained their offense seems to stall out. The problem is that nobody really can contain him. Alabama's toughest opponent is LSU, obviously, but not obvious because they have the 6th best rushing defense in the country and thats against good competition. They held Oregon to 95 yards on the ground. Oregon has averaged over 350+ yards rushing a game in the 5 games since. If they somehow manage to get past LSU on Nov. 5th they will probably still have to face Georgia in the CCG. Yes, I said GEORGE-AH!!! With Lattimore gone for the season and Garcia gone for good(?) I don't see how South Carolina can survive without another conference loss. Georgia is highly ranked against the run which could also pose problems for Alabama. If they make it to the NCG, pray they don't face Stanford. Richardson is something special and it's possible two of his final college carries include a crystal football and a statue depicting him stiff arming some poor defender.
LSU - I don't like admitting Les Miles can coach so I won't - @ Alabama Nov. 5th and CCG
Here's a stat for you. 80th ranked offense in the country results in the 20th ranked scoring offense in the country and a #1 ranking in the BCS standings. The second worst total offense in the top 10 is owned by Alabama at 24th. The results are astounding averaging 38 points a game with their 80th ranking in total yards. That's efficiency. All other offenses in the top 10 in the BCS are averaging more points except Clemson who is in 21st with 38pts/game as well. When things don't add up to logic in Louisiana you have to wonder if there isn't a little black magic involved. Any way you look at it I'd have to give Miles coach of the year and that's quite an admission from me. They have the magic formula to beat Alabama, run the table, and make it to the NCG but I don't know if there is a crystal ball in the cards for LSU.
Clemson - Great body of work and remaining schedule is lessening - UNC at home this weekend and Wake Nov.12
A winning combination is usually a good offense and a decently stout defense. Clemson is more geared towards a shoot out style game. Their best defensive performance was against VT but it was more VT's offense struggling than Clemson's defense. UNC can score and has a good defense not to mention they are playing for everything this weekend. A third conference loss means they are out of the hunt in the ACC. There seems to be some infighting at Clemson as Mike Bellamy is whining about his number of carries. He may be worth the money they are paying him but he needs to grow up a bit. He accepted the big payout now he needs to accept that he's going to have to play behind Ellington.
Clemson also still has Wake Forest and even though they lost this past weekend Wake still controls it's destiny in the Atlantic. Clemson has both UNC and Wake at home but even if they get to the CCG unblemished it is likely they will run into a revitalized VT team. VT is not a team you want to play twice.
I know the media is hyping the Ga Tech - Clemson game as their toughest remaining conference game but Ga Tech has been backsliding for weeks. Tevin Washington was horrible last year when he came in for Nesbitt who broke his arm during the VT game. Although a better passer than Nesbitt he was still horrible. He started off the year at 60% completion but I figured that would disappear against better competition. He was a surprising 70% completion against UNC but has been sub 30% in the three games since. I had actually circled the Miami game this weekend but was pleasantly and only somewhat surprised by UVA's win. A loss to Miami and Clemson over the next two weeks effectively will end all their hopes.
With Lattimore and Garcia gone there's no reason to think Clemson wouldn't dominate that game.
Stanford - Easier schedule to date, Andrew Luck - Washington this weekend and 3 other quality games
Stanford has all the Luck. They are certainly capable of taking care of business. They've got Washington this weekend but I don't foresee any problems. USC could pose problems in a few weeks but I doubt it. They got Oregon at home and I think it's their biggest remaining test. If they get by Oregon they still have a vastly improved and improving Notre Dame team but it's at home. A CCG against a likely Arizona St. team doesn't seem too daunting either. Even standing undefeated after a CCG they don't control their own destiny. It's almost a lock that an undefeated SEC and BIG 12 would be in the NCG. Stanford is first on the waiting list in my book. Their SoS will pick up dramatically over the next few weeks and they will slowly work their way past Boise St. into the on deck circle but they need others to lose.
Wisconsin - Just getting into their heavier schedule - Mich St. this weekend
Russell Wilson for heisman? After this weekend they are going to be looking for Russell Wilson in a scrap heap. All this hype about Wilson has left me chuckling for weeks. Michigan St. is going to punk him. He is not good under pressure. He makes bad decisions, doesn't pick up the blitz, and just comes completely unraveled. He is Cowering Wolf, Paper Badger, and Mich St. is bringing the crayons. Namely Black, Blue, Purple, maybe some Yellow and red too for good measure. He was on the same path at NC St. when Tech came into his house and roughed him up. It is possible for people to improve. Last year Tech made Jacory Harris(Miami) look horrible. This year Harris is a much better QB and is making MUCH better decisions. Wilson is a good pocket passer but he's not been much of a gamer.
Obviously, I have no expectations that Wisconsin will survive the weekend much less the season.
I think come season end we will have three undefeated teams in LSU, Stanford, and Boise St. It is possible Houston goes undefeated but there is no way they impact the title game. The only way I can see Boise getting in is if Stanford stumbles which is possible.
I think the Big 12 knocks itself out. I think Clemson stumbles at least once. They are a pretty good team but VT is coming on strong since Clemson knocked them out of their daze. Clemson definitely has a shot to go undefeated but it'll be a tight race with Stanford for the second spot in they do. I think Wisconsin stumbles at least once and it's Wilson's fault. I haven't been right a lot this year so I don't put a whole lot of stock in my assessments except for the ACC and Russell Wilson because of being from the ACC. Hopefully though this opens up quite a bit of discussion.
Great overview. I see Boise, the winner of LSU/Alabama and 1 of the Big 12ers remaining undefeated, not sure which, probably the winner of Okie/Okie St. Oklahoma has the best chance, but they always seem to stumble when they shouldn't. They knocked the ever lovin' crap out of Texas though.