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Thought this was pretty cool............... http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/news_2012_0530_ccr_outperforms_bcs.html

I did best in the contest when I just used Congrove....never won though....

I have played since the first season. I have only won one time. I have no system. Mountainman, I think, had the best year in total picks. I don't think Eric has ever won and I have a theory about that - Since Eric picks games he deems are the hardest twenty of the week, it makes sense that he has a hard time picking at a high rate. Hows that sound Eric?

Spence wrote:I have played since the first season. I have only won one time. I have no system. Mountainman, I think, had the best year in total picks. I don't think Eric has ever won and I have a theory about that - Since Eric picks games he deems are the hardest twenty of the week, it makes sense that he has a hard time picking at a high rate. Hows that sound Eric?

Could be. Or maybe I just really stink

I have a tendency to force my upset picks, so that probably costs me a couple spots in the standings per year. Sometimes I just can't resist

I have always said that I try to spot a balance between the toughest games and the biggest games of the week. I wasn't sure if anybody would take Washington over USC, but it is a road game with the higher ranked team going on the road and this particular team has usually struggled against inferior teams on the road. It was a nationally broadcast game and probably one of the top 10 games of the week in terms of importance, so even though I didn't think it would get a very large split, I felt I had to include it. I was torn on whether or not to have Iowa @ Michigan State or San Antonio @ Rice since obviously more people are going to be more familiar with the former two teams rather than the latter. But I didn't feel the game was really nationally big or had national implications, so I chose the game that I thought would be harder to pick. My system is pretty arbitrary.

I think it has to do with what I said. I think you know as much about ALL the teams as anyone I have ever known. I just think the pick um is especially hard on you because you pick games you mostly believe are the harder games. If I tried that I would have more trouble too. I think picking the matchups and then picking teams in the game would be tough.

Spence wrote:I think it has to do with what I said. I think you know as much about ALL the teams as anyone I have ever known. I just think the pick um is especially hard on you because you pick games you mostly believe are the harder games. If I tried that I would have more trouble too. I think picking the matchups and then picking teams in the game would be tough.

They key is after the fact vs. forecasting the future

The key to picking games is being able to isolate the key matchups and have an idea how they will turn out. A team that runs well can run into a defense that stops the run but has bad corners and lose. Another seemingly weaker team with a QB who can find his receivers can beat that same defense. It is easier said than done or I would have won lots more times. Still if you can break it down to that key matchup, you will win more times than you lose. Picking against the spread is a whole different thing.

Congrove was the only one to pick above the coin flip % ATS!

Funny, all those other guys think they are quite the football and math gurus...and they get a lot of touting!

WoVeU wrote:Funny, all those other guys think they are quite the football and math gurus...and they get a lot of touting!

It's how the system supports itself.

If you really want a look at what system predicts what best....

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/awards2011.html

So nobody is better than 50% against the spread all-time?!

Still a better batting average than the Feist hotline.

Brian Roastbeef wrote:So nobody is better than 50% against the spread all-time?!

Still a better batting average than the Feist hotline.

There is a reason that they call it gambling.

Brian Roastbeef wrote:So nobody is better than 50% against the spread all-time?!

Still a better batting average than the Feist hotline.

Lol...how many conversations have we had about that guy? Remember...always remember...Stupid Hat!

Grayghost wrote:

Brian Roastbeef wrote:So nobody is better than 50% against the spread all-time?!

Still a better batting average than the Feist hotline.

Lol...how many conversations have we had about that guy? Remember...always remember...Stupid Hat!

LOL Yeah, I remember those. And that's Cokin with the stupid hat.