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Gollee, it's been a while since I did one of these. Here are my first bowl projections of the year. I would have liked to do one midseason just to see if they could be accurate at all, most likely not. Obviously there are a lot of big games left to go that will decide conference championships and whatnot, but here's what I've got and tell me what you think:

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State vs. Utah State
New Mexico Bowl: Nevada vs. Arizona
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. BYU
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: Western Kentucky* vs. UCF
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Stanford
New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green*
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. San Jose State*
Little Caesar’s Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech*
Belk Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Holiday Bowl: USC vs. Oklahoma State
Military Bowl: Arizona State* vs. UL Lafayette*
Independence Bowl: UL Monroe* vs. Ohio*
Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl: Iowa State vs. Purdue
Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech
Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech vs. UCLA
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. ECU
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: TCU vs. Michigan State
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Washington vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Chick-fil-a Bowl: NC State vs. Mississippi State
Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt
Music City Bowl: Duke vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl: Miami vs. Oregon State
Capital One Bowl: Florida vs. Nebraska
Gator Bowl: South Carolina vs. Northwestern
Outback Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Minnesota vs. SMU
Cotton Bowl: Texas vs. LSU
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Bowl: Ball State* vs. Troy*
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee
BCS Championship: Oregon vs. Kansas State

Okay, now for my rationale. All asterisked teams are at-large bids. I don't see Oregon or Kansas State losing although I think they will be challenged down the stretch. Notre Dame I believe will hang on and find a way to win against USC but will be on the outside looking in. As far as I know, the Rose Bowl would get the first at-large selection with Oregon in the title game, so they will take Notre Dame (I like Wisconsin over Nebraska just based on style of play). I did go out on a limb with the Fiesta Bowl pick. They would most likely grab Oklahoma as a replacement Big 12 team, but with the second at-large selection, odds are they will grab an SEC team. Florida, Georgia, or LSU make perfect sense here, but I think with Johnny Manziel and the national buzz that will be surrounding him, I think they will go for the publicity and A&M sneaks into the BCS. My gut initially said Florida, CBS says LSU, and my head tells me A&M. The Sugar gets Alabama but their at-large choices are limited as they come down to Louisville and Clemson. The other team or two that they would get to choose from in the back end of the rankings would most likely have three losses and would be an unattractive draw.

As for BCS busters, there is still a good shot that Louisiana Tech sneaks into the BCS. They do have to take care of business against San Jose State and Utah State, so there's no guarantee they go 11-1. All they would need for this to happen is to get into the top 16 and be ranked higher than a conference champ. If the ACC Coastal manages to upset Florida State (not happening) or if Rutgers comes away with the Big East title, then the door is wide open for the Bulldogs. I personally think Utah State will defeat Louisiana Tech this Saturday, but who knows. I think the Little Caesar's game will find a way to bring Louisiana Tech to the Motor City to showcase an offensive shootout between 12-1 MAC champ Northern Illinois and 10-2 (or 11-1 and no BCS) high-powered Louisiana Tech.

The hardest conference to slot in for me was the Pac-12. Right now, USC would seem like an attractive draw, but I have a feeling that UCLA will get the nod to go to the Alamo Bowl (Pac-12 #2) since it's something different. For the MWC, I was also wondering whether or not the Las Vegas Bowl would want San Diego State or Boise State. Boise State will obviously draw the national audience and, as far as I know, they travel fairly well to Vegas. If the Broncos went there, this would mark their third straight year of participating in the Las Vegas Bowl. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them go with MWC co-champ San Diego State over Boise this year. If that were to happen, the Broncos would most likely go to the Poinsettia and rematch BYU.

I'll have to disagree with Texas A&M getting a BCS bowl. I think Ga would get that at-large bid before A&M, and I don't think either deserve it.

IF Ga beats Alabama, then it might be different.

I think my opinion might be pretty far out there. The problem Georgia is going to have if they lose is that 11-1 Florida is waiting in the wings and they have to ward off 10-2 LSU for that at-large bid. They could easily get the "late loss treatment" the same way Michigan State did when Michigan got the Sugar Bowl berth (which was dumb, because they had the same amount of losses with MSU having play an extra game against a very tough Wisconsin opponent and they beat Michigan to boot). This is assuming that Florida beats Florida State which is a game that could go either way.

If by some miracle, Hawai`i pulls out the victory, Friday night.
And then Air Force loses @ Fresno St next week.
Look for Navy to be in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Although; the only game Hawai`i has won thus far, is their game vs Lamar in week 2.

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Also note: you may want a secondary Sun Bowl optional pick.

Miami may be implementing another self imposed Bowl ban.

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If Miami does do the self bowl ban, then I don't know what recourse the bowls are going to have. All the ACC teams jump up a slot which would create another at-large bid. I've never seen what the process is when they run out of eligible bowl teams. I used up every team I could find, excluding North Carolina and Ohio State which are serving their sentences. The one team that can still go 6-6 is Marshall who closes out against a weak Houston team and then they go at ECU. Most likely one team between SMU, Rice, and Houston will get eligible. I'm thinking it'll be SMU.

I figure UL Lafayette finishes at #2 in the Sun Belt and gets the invite at the GoDaddy.com Bowl in Mobile, AL. Middle Tennessee still has Troy and Arkansas State left on their schedule. Cajuns fans traveled well to the New Orleans Bowl last season, they would travel nearly as well to Mobile.

A lot of intriguing matchups here.

Yeah, that call could go either way. I think Middle Tennessee and UL Lafayette will finish with an identical conference record and the two teams didn't go head to head this year (Sun Belt now has 10 members and an 8 game conference slate). The Sun Belt only has two bowl bids, so the other three teams that will get slotted in somewhere will be at-larges. CBS has UL Monroe getting the selection from the GoDaddy.com, but they could lose another game without Kolton Browning at QB who is out for the forseeable future with a broken foot (a shame because they were probably on pace to win the conference before losing to Arkansas State and UL Lafayette without Browning).

I really don't know which way they're going to go. Arkansas State I think has the inside track to New Orleans. I don't know if the New Orleans Bowl is obligated to pick the Sun Belt champion or not. If not, they could go with one of the Louisiana teams. I think the Independence Bowl will get the other Louisiana school. There's also a good chance that Louisiana Tech will accept an at-large bid to go there and play another at-large selection.

Middle Tennessee would have the shortest route to Washington for the Military Bowl, so that is in the realm of possibility as well.

Eric, I can actually see A&M getting the at-large for Fiesta after readin this article.

And I think it makes sense for them to get it regardless of the outcome in Atlanta.

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2012/sec-week-12-bowl-projections/

Miami has been fairly smart....give up a couple of crappy bowls that you actually lose money on....

But...I think that the ACC might demand that decision before the CCG if they would be the Coastal Champ.....It would be really tough to have Miami knock a team out of the championship game and then bow out of the bowls.

I would expect the same thing.

If Miami somehow wins the division, and chooses to opt out of a bowl game; I do not see its relevance in the event Miami were to appear in a post season conference championship game.

Nor do I feel it would be ethical to play in such a game under said circumstance.

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As for Eric's, Armed Force's Bowl, prediction.

We're half way there; Air Force took care of their obligation, beating Hawai`i 21-7 tonight.
The Falcons are 6-6, and now bowl bound.

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Ok, after that fiasco, here's how I'll update my bowl projections:

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State vs. Utah State
New Mexico Bowl: Arizona State vs. Nevada
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. BYU
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: UCF vs. Ohio
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona
New Orleans Bowl: UL Lafayette vs. ECU
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. San Jose State
Little Caesar’s Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
Belk Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Holiday Bowl: USC vs. West Virginia
Military Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
Independence Bowl: UL Monroe vs. Duke
Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl: Iowa State vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers vs. Miami
Alamo Bowl: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Rice
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Northwestern vs. Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Washington vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl: TCU vs. Syracuse
Chick-fil-a Bowl: Clemson vs. LSU
Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. Louisiana Tech
Music City Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Sun Bowl: NC State vs. Oregon State
Capital One Bowl: Michigan vs. Georgia
Gator Bowl: Michigan State vs. Mississippi State
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Baylor vs. Purdue
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. UCLA
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Oregon
BBVA Compass Bowl: Ball State vs. Troy
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee
BCS Championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

Rationale time! I changed from Wisconsin to Nebraska after today had me doubting their QB play. I think Nebraska will take care of business. I think Notre Dame will find a way to beat USC and that Alabama will beat Georgia. Kansas State gets the autobid to the Fiesta Bowl, Florida State gets the autobid to the Orange Bowl, and I think UCLA will lose to Stanford next week and then beat Stanford in the title game to go to the Rose Bowl. Here's where things get tricky: Does the Sugar Bowl, with the first at-large selection due to losing Alabama to the title game, select Oregon or Florida (rated 3rd in BCS)? Oregon obviously has the farthest way to travel, and because of that I say they go with Florida. Oregon will then go to the Fiesta, leaving Louisville to the Orange.

I did change a lot of initial picks because I do think I have a better idea of which bowls slot in where in terms of selection. I think South Carolina goes to the Outback over LSU to avoid a rivalry rematch of South Carolina and Clemson in the Chick-fil-a Bowl. I think West Virginia, even with their recent struggles, will close out the year with two wins and finish 4-5 in Big 12 play, putting them in the Holiday Bowl discussion.

Again, I don't know quite how realistic this is, but I have Louisiana Tech now headed toward the Liberty Bowl. Initially with Missouri getting eligible, the SEC would have slotted a team here. With Syracuse beating Missouri and essentially knocking them out of bowl contention, Louisiana Tech would make a good at-large to play the C-USA champ, whomever that is between UCF and Tulsa. Missouri was the only team that dropped out from my first projections and Baylor gets in, as I predict them to beat Texas Tech (this is iffy).

I think the bowls will find a way to create an interesting matchup in Detroit with Northern Illinois facing Arkansas State. I think the New Orleans Bowl will try to get UL Lafayette for the hometown boost. Also when I think about it, Arkansas State going to the Liberty Bowl and then Louisiana Tech to the Little Caesar's would also make sense.