This Week's BCS Actually Matters

[Eric]

I haven't really been paying attention to the BCS standings this year because everything has been set in stone outside of the top five. This week just got a whole lot crazier though. My rankings tend to mirror your average poll and I noticed something when I started setting my poll up. I tend to punish teams a few spots at least for losing games, but I got to a point where I had 7 out of 8 straight teams lose today. Texas, UCLA, Oregon State, Michigan, Rutgers, Louisville, and Oklahoma State all lost. The team sitting behind them? Duh-duh-Duuuuuh!

Boise State!!

That's right. Depending on how the rankings shake out, Boise State may be sitting pretty for an automatic at-large bid. They were ranked 22nd in this weeks' BCS. They have to get to 16 and be ranked ahead of the Big East champ in order to automatically qualify, which is pretty much a given should they beat Nevada since Louisville and Rutgers will drop hard after their losses today. I believe it's almost a guarantee that they'll jump to at least number 18. This would put them behind Texas, UCLA, and Nebraska. In order to get in, they would need two of those three to lose next week, which is fairly likely. Texas is most likely going to get out-Bill-Snydered by Bill Snyder and Kansas State. UCLA, while I have them winning, will be decent underdogs against Stanford in their rematch in Palo Alto. Wisconsin, while not very good from top to bottom, can pound it against Nebraska and their first matchup was very close. This also opens the door for Kent State to get in with a win over Northern Illinois, if they can find a way to get ahead of the Broncos or if this scenario plays out and Boise State gets beat by Nevada, also possible.

[armchairqb]

Interesting potential scenario, Eric.

It might not be unrealistic since the Big East has been the white elephant in the room this week. Rutgers getting plotchered by Pittsburgh certainly drops their standing in the BCS. Louisville definitely misses Sinorice Perry in their offense; they no longer have that two-pronged running attack and it hurt them against UConn.

Boise is going to have to get to about #14 in the Harris and Coaches' Poll in order to have a slight chance at a BCS at large berth. Boise's computer rankings (though that changes slightly tonight, that will have to change a lot more if they defeat Nevada): #43(Wolfe), #38(Massey), #42(Colley Matrix), #30(Billingsley), #42(Anderson Hester), #51(Sagarin: ELO Chess)

[Eric]

I didn't get to see a second of the UConn/Louisville game. Too busy with the Michigan game, but I was checking the bottom line and something was obviously wrong with their offense. I'm really disappointed that they couldn't rally the troops to get a big win. The Big East gets no respect in the polls and, while they are disintegrating at the seams, it would have been good for the conference to have a ranked Thursday night showdown for a BCS berth. Both teams lose and now they're each going to be unranked and the embarrassment will be even worse.

[armchairqb]

Eric, Boise goes #22- #15 in the Coaches Poll this week. Uh-oh! Still waiting for the Harris Poll to be released. This week, the computer rankings for Boise need to be within striking distance of an average of #20. TALL order, but it would be a nice unrealistic wish if it were granted.

[Eric]

Eric, Boise goes #22- #15 in the Coaches Poll this week. Uh-oh! Still waiting for the Harris Poll to be released. This week, the computer rankings for Boise need to be within striking distance of an average of #20. TALL order, but it would be a nice unrealistic wish if it were granted.

Right. They can afford to be #17 or #18 at this point. They would just need some combination between Texas, UCLA, and Nebraska to lose. It'll be interesting to see what Kent State's situation will be and if a win over a ranked NIU team would get them ahead of Boise State. Northern Illinois could be in the running, but I think they started too far back. Some of that mass of teams that lost yesterday will still be ahead of Northern Illinois and I don't think a Kent State victory will boost them high enough.

If you want my personal opinion on this, I think it's great that we could get some representation of smaller schools in a bigger bowl game. Whether it's Boise or the MAC Champ, it would undoubtedly be fun and unique and I would cheer for them to win the Orange Bowl. The downside, they absolutely don't belong. I know by the eye test that Kent State has gotten so much better since their loss to Kentucky, but if they met a defense that could limit the running game, they couldn't move the ball with Spencer Keith at QB. Kent State's defense, while good in the MAC, is basically an average BCS-conference defense. Boise State has a decent defense, but the offense wouldn't be able to move the ball against any team currently in the BCS picture, including the Big East champion. Northern Illinois would be the second-most competitive behind Boise State in my opinion because I'm not sure if they have the defensive chops to stop a great offense. Jordan Lynch in a big time bowl game would be awesome though.

[Cane from the Bend]

And So:

Kent State is #17 in the BCS

They'll need some help uptop, and beat No Illinois . . . though, there is still a chance.

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Note: Boise State is #20 & No Illinois is #21 in the BCS poll

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[Eric]

Yeah I was a little surprised at Kent State hopping Boise State. I wonder if Boise being on a bye hurt them here.

I think Kent State is in great shape should they win. Texas should drop a few spots should they lose and Stanford will be solid favorites. I think the problem for the MAC getting into the BCS is that Northern Illinois will win and UCLA will also win. That's just my prediction though, so you know it's worth a literal grain of salt

I should say though that if the Amrageddon scenario for the Orange Bowl happens, there might be a lobbying effort to suppress Kent State in the rankings. If the polls were naturally left to do as they will, I think Kent State would be #16 in the BCS. But I think a lot of people will look back at the resume and see the loss to Kentucky and punish them for that.

[armchairqb]

Yeah I was a little surprised at Kent State hopping Boise State. I wonder if Boise being on a bye hurt them here.

I think Kent State is in great shape should they win. Texas should drop a few spots should they lose and Stanford will be solid favorites. I think the problem for the MAC getting into the BCS is that Northern Illinois will win and UCLA will also win. That's just my prediction though, so you know it's worth a literal grain of salt

I should say though that if the Amrageddon scenario for the Orange Bowl happens, there might be a lobbying effort to suppress Kent State in the rankings. If the polls were naturally left to do as they will, I think Kent State would be #16 in the BCS. But I think a lot of people will look back at the resume and see the loss to Kentucky and punish them for that.

Kent isn't getting high rankings in the Massey(last week #29) or Sagarin-ELO Chess(#37) computer ratings, but they are getting respectable numbers in the Wolfe(#16), Colley Matrix(#16), Billingsley(#16), Anderson Hester(#21). The human voters will have to be careful to disguise their chicanery in their polls as Kent State has some upward movement in the computer calculations.

[Eric]

I don't even think they have to be sneaky about giving Kent State the shaft. The national discussion will be split between the underdog-sympathizers (me) and the hard-nosed realists. The H-NR are going to remind everyone of the loss to Kentucky. I think that will dominate the discussion and Kent State may fall a spot or two in the human polls once they realize the gravity of having a Florida State / Kent State Orange Bowl.

I think all of this will be avoided with NIU and UCLA winning, but hypotheticals are fun . I'm by no means sold on the Huskies or the Bruins winning. Those are coinflip games in my estimation. But my general rule is, "if you [Eric] want historically unlikely and beneficial-to-you-as-a-fan Scenario X to happen, the odds are 15% that it will happen" and apply that to my sports fandom . I know Kent State or NIU won't deserve it, but as a MAC fan it would be a thrill to see them get waxed in the Orange Bowl, unless they face Georgia Tech whom they could beat.