Thoughts on Selection Sunday

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Eric
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Thoughts on Selection Sunday

Postby Eric » Sun Mar 12, 2006 9:38 pm

Generous Rankings:

Syracuse
UCLA
Kentucky
Michigan State
Tennessee
Montana

Ripped Off:

George Washington
Texas A&M
Iona
Xavier
Southern Alabama
Winthrop

Upset Alert:

UNC Wilmington over GW
Texas A&M over Syracuse
Iona over LSU
Kent State over Pitt
Xavier over Gonzaga
George Mason over Michigan State
UW-Milwaukee over Oklahoma

Those Ones That Will Make the Favorite Sweat for 38 minutes and Catch a Break or Pull Away:

NW State over Iowa
Oral Roberts over Memphis
Winthrop over Tennessee
Pacific over Boston College
Southern Alabama over Florida

Best Matchups:

GW and UNC-Wilmington
West Virginia and Southern Illinois
Cal and NC State
Arkansas and Bucknell
Gonzaga and Xavier
Marquette and Alabama
Arizona and Wisconsin


Snubs:

Missouri State
Cincinnati
Houston
Florida State

Undeserving:

Air Force
Utah State
Bradley
Seton Hall
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

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Postby Jason G » Sun Mar 12, 2006 11:58 pm

I respectfully disagree about Utah State and Bradley being undeserving. Utah State has shown in the past that they can pull off the big upset plus their league is one that deserves multiple bids year in and year out. It is every bit as good or better than the MAC every year and I know we both think that most years it deserves more representation.

I was glad to see Bradley in simply because for the last month of the season they were the hottest and best team in the MVC. The MVC was so strong this year that I found Bradley's late season surge particularly impressive. For this same reason I don't understand why Missouri State isn't one of the top four seeds in the NIT but Maryland and Louisville are.

As far as Air Force goes though I don't know what to say except that maybe the commitee wanted to take a chance on a program. I remember they did that with George Washington way back when Mike Jarvis was still their head coach and nobody had really ever heard of them. They went on to make the Sweet 16 that year if I recall and that program has been much stronger ever since. I'd like to see the committee take a chance on ONE team/ program every two or three years.

I agree with you on every one of your seeding comments except maybe Xavier and I only say that because they were the 10th seed in their own conference tourney despite winning 22 games.

So, what do you think of Kent State's chances against Pitt? How about Akron's chances in the NIT when they play at Temple Tuesday?

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Postby Eric » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:40 am

I didn't know that about Xavier, but they did win the A-10, so that has to count for at least a 13 seed? Plus they have seemed to get their groove back, the one they had earlier this season. I think Gonzaga is ripe for an upset with all of the close calls they've been having with WCC teams, so I know at least the Musketeers will give the Bulldogs a run for their money; they'll have to earn that victory.
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Postby Jason G » Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:09 pm

Looking at the brackets again, I think the team that got the worst break in the seeding is Oral Roberts. This team may not deserve a top 10 or 11 seed but a 16? This team is one of those I'd be saying you need to watch out for if they were seeded around 13 or 14. They may be the second best 16 seed ever in the tourney after that Princeton team that almost upset Geogetown back in the 80s.

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Postby Jason G » Tue Mar 14, 2006 7:19 pm

Believe it or not, George Washington is an 8 seed. Terrible for them because they would be matched with the 1 seed in the second roundif they make it that far.

In most cases, I don't take too much of an issue with seeding. All the teams will need to go out and play tough teams to make it deep in the tournament. Although if I was GW or even Oral Roberts I'd be wondering why they put us on a direct line to meet the top seed in the region.

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Postby Eric » Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:16 pm

Seeding does make a difference. If George Washington had gotten a 6 seed like they should have, they'd be playing Wisconsin-Milwaukee or George Mason, but instead they're going to have to play a UNC-Wilmington team that is better than both of those schools and they'll take on Duke in the second round. If they got a 6 seed, they'd be playing a 3 seed in the second round. Plus there is always the chance of an upset, and since if you get a 7,8,9, or 10 seed you're pretty sure if you advance, you'll be playing a 1 or 2 seed. Southern Alabama can beat Florida, so for instance, you could catch a break. The problem with being one of those 7, 8, 9, or 10 seeds is that you're pretty much doomed in the second round. I'd rather be a 11 or 12 seed than one of those sometimes because if you can make it past the 1st round, you have a much better shot at winning and getting into the Sweet 16.

Of course, if you're looking at the big picture (Elite 8 and forward) it really doesn't make too much of a difference.
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Postby Jason G » Fri Mar 17, 2006 10:17 am

I didn't mean to imply that seeding didn't make any difference. I just don't see a big difference when it comes to those teams at the very top. I don't see a big difference between a 1 and a 2 or a 2 and a 3.

If you're a 2 you'd still meet up with the 1 seed when you would have met the 2. Extremely tough either way. Same difference with 2s and 3s they will still meet each other at the same time.

I do see bigger differences btweena 3 and a 4 though. A 4 has to meet the top seed one round sooner than a 3 and that is only if it survives the game with the 5 seed or now infamous 12th seeded Cinderella.


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