WoVeU wrote:Any Historians about? (I seem to recall that only once has a party not nominated a sitting president.) The Dems might want to consider that.
Yep. Majored in college, although more European history. Cold War was my thing.
The President you are thinking of was Franklin Pierce, who governed from 1853-57. He contested the 1856 nomination but lost to James Buchanan. Buchanan went on to win a plurality in a three way race over John C. Fremont and Millard Fillmore. This was during the turbulence of the ante-bellum period, during which just about every election and public policy decision centered around the differences for free and slave states.
There are some other more recent examples that the Democrats should watch very closely though.
Harry Truman bowed out in 1952, although he was eligible to run for another term, despite the 22nd amendment. He was late in making his decision, which hurt his VP, Alben Barkley in early primaries. The party nominated Adlai Stevenson, and lost.
LBJ famously opted not to run in 1968. This left Bobby Kennedy, Eugene McCarthy, and Hubert Humphrey who took the nomination and was destroyed by Nixon. Had RFK not been shot, he may have won the nomination, but his chances of defeating Nixon are overinflated among the legends of the Kennedy family. Democrat fatigue was an issue after 8 years that included the far left programs of LBJ. Nixon would have been a favorite over just about any candidate.
Ronald Reagan attempted to primary Gerald Ford in 1976 and nearly did so - mostly due to differences within the party. Ford was a moderate; Reagan was a Goldwater-style conservative. Ford still lost, Reagan may have done somewhat better, though not a lock to defeat Carter. He did better waiting until '80.
In 1980, Ted Kennedy tried to primary Jimmy Carter, and took him to the convention. The party stuck with Carter. The nation went with Reagan.
In short, recent examples show that if you are a sitting President, and have done such a rotten job* that you either have to face a significant primary challenger or opt not to run out of fear of losing to one, then chances are the country won't have much use for your party in November anyway. Take note, Hillary.
*I actually don't think Ford did a rotten job. He handled his situation as best he could and did a lot to see the Watergate era put behind us. Nevertheless, he was never popular.
