
I mean, look at this. SMU was 6-6 in a mediocre conference, lost to Rice and Tulane, and ranked 93rd in total offense and 64th in total defense. Fresno State was 9-3 with losses to Oregon, Tulsa, and Boise State, finished 9-3, and ranked 14th in total offense and 19th in total defense. But somehow you're supposed to pick an SMU blowout. I don't know why the college football gods expect this of us

Maybe picking C-USA is the smart thing to do. They've had a lot of success in this particular game. Maybe they're more motivated by the prospects of playing in Hawaii than teams who regularly visit there to play football? Who the heck knows.