Eric's 100% Inaccurate Bowl Projections: Week 8

[Eric]

Okay, just to preface this, this season is turning out to be a mess trying to project. Good luck to anyone out there who wants to sort through the SEC logjam Regardless, this is what I've got. It's 100% Inaccurate for a reason, after all

New Mexico: UNLV vs. Utah
Las Vegas: Fresno State vs. Washington
Idaho Potato: Northern Illinois vs. Boise State
New Orleans: UL Lafayette vs. Tulane
Beef O’Brady’s: Tulsa vs. Toledo*
Hawaii: Utah State vs. North Texas
Little Caesar’s Pizza: Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State*
Poinsettia: San Jose State vs. Ohio*
Military: Duke vs. ECU
Texas: Northwestern vs. Arizona*
Kraft Fight Hunger: BYU vs. USC
Buffalo Wild Wings: Texas vs. Iowa
Pinstripe: Rutgers vs. Notre Dame*
Belk: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Russell Athletic: Maryland vs. UCF
Armed Forces: Wyoming vs. Navy
Music City: NC State vs. Ole Miss
Alamo: Texas Tech vs. Arizona State
Holiday: Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Sun: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State
Independence: Pitt vs. Vanderbilt
Liberty: Florida vs. Marshall
Chick-fil-A: Miami vs. LSU
Gator: Michigan State vs. Georgia
Capital One: Nebraska vs. South Carolina
Outback: Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Heart of Dallas: Minnesota vs. Rice
Rose: Ohio State vs. UCLA
Sugar: Auburn vs. Clemson
Fiesta: Baylor vs. Louisville
Orange: Florida State vs. Wisconsin
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
BBVA Compass: Tennessee vs. Houston
GoDaddy: Ball State vs. Western Kentucky
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon

Added:
Duke
Tennessee
UNLV
Pitt
Utah
Tulane

Dropped:
Buffalo
Nevada
TCU
Kansas State
North Carolina
Middle Tennessee

Feel free to completely disregard since there is so much in flux right now. I'm only doing this to stick to my word about updating this every four weeks

For starters, the SEC. God and Nostradamus only know how this will turn out. You have a logjam of two and three loss teams in conference play. One team will snap up an at-large in the BCS, the only question being who at this point. Auburn has been a sneaky-good kind of team and they should be favored the rest of the way until they meet up with Alabama, even with a road date against Georgia. I currently have Auburn 10-2 with a tight, well-respected loss to Alabama to close things out. If they climb up the rankings enough through late November and fall to the #1 team in the country, they might finish the regular season as the highest-ranked SEC team not named Alabama. You would figure though that Texas A&M might be in the BCS picture even at 9-3. I have Missouri losing to A&M and South Carolina, but if it came down to Missouri or Auburn, I would think Auburn would have the BCS edge. LSU I have at 9-3 so they could sneak into the conversation, but the Sugar Bowl may want a hungry fan base that would travel and Auburn would bring that. But I have no freaking clue.

I also have no freaking clue about how the BCS picture will shape up. I have Baylor at 11-1 losing to Okie State, but I have Okie State at 10-2 along with Texas Tech at 10-2. These teams would have to be in the BCS at-large picture. Wisconsin will breeze past the remainder of their schedule and finish 10-2 making them a sleeper pick to make a BCS run since Big 10 teams can travel. They won't really deserve it, but they can do it. Clemson will be in the at-large picture. Northern Illinois I have losing to Bowling Green in the MAC championship and I have Fresno State getting upset against Wyoming or San Jose State, but I realize those predictions may crumble. I don't know if Fresno State can do well enough on the road against better competition yet. I'd like to have them prove me wrong. The Pac-12, if they get Oregon into the title game, should get the Rose to take another as an at-large, but who it will be remains a mystery. I actually don't have UCLA winning their division, but this team never dies in the polls even with losses as evidenced by last year. A loss to Oregon won't drop them far this week and I think they do lose at Arizona State, but they will climb high enough to get into eligibility. I still have Stanford dropping to Oregon State and Oregon. The Rose could get its choice of UCLA or Stanford in this scenario. Arizona State will lose another conference game and their championship final against Oregon, giving them four losses and knocking them out of the at-large picture.

One interesting possibility, if this 100% Inaccurate scenario plays out, is what to do with the Las Vegas Bowl. This bowl game typically gets the top Mountain West pick, but UNLV is never eligible. I don't believe they are required to take the Mountain West champion. Do they go with the homer pick that sells tickets but gives the game less competitive and national appeal? I would have to think this is a possibility. Fresno could hop to the Potato Bowl to take on NIU in the "Best Non-BCSers" Bowl if they could arrange that. I stuck with the conservative by-the-book guess since Boise/NIU would be an attractive matchup in its own right and that UNLV fans could certainly get from Las Vegas to Albuquerque to see them take on an old intraconference rival.

With Duke getting to five wins since I last made this and Tennessee scoring the one upset that they needed to get to 6-6, Buffalo and Nevada get squeezed out of the picture. I would also have Troy getting to six wins but not getting an invite. Buffalo will likely be an 8-4 team staying home for the holidays unless something crazy happens to Pitt, Vandy, Utah, NC State, or Tulsa or some combination of that.

[billybud]

I hope that FSU doesn't meet Wisconsin as Eric has predicted.

FSU's defense is built to stop the spread and has a more difficult time with power running teams.

[Eric]

Something is telling me FSU would be alright

I think if Wisconsin gets to a BCS game, I can't say they absolutely don't deserve it since the Arizona State game might not have been a loss if it was officiated correctly so we could be talking about an 11-1 team, but they would have got there with a softer schedule than you'd like to see. If they go 10-2, their best wins would have been against BYU and Penn State at home . A loss to Ohio State and a questionable loss to Arizona State, no Michigan, no Michigan State, and no Nebraska.

[Derek]

You can drop Georgia out of this picture as well.

To be honest, I don't want them to get a bowl game this year. Maybe then people will stop saying "Next year". It seems that "bowl games" are just like a candy to Ga fans and they stop demanding more when they go to some random bowl. Maybe a bowl season at home will jar some senses.

I know they are injured, but last Saturday was just embarrassing. I didn't mind the loss to Mizzou because I think they are an under-rated team. But to drop one to Vandy when you had them by two touchdowns, and to come out from halftime and get 3 points for the 2nd half.....there is just no excuse for it.

I think your LSU/Miami matchup is a rematch from the same year that Georgia played Michigan State. Coincidence??

[Eric]

I think the worst part about the Vandy loss was that, even with the injuries, Georgia completely outplayed them in all phases of the game for 3 and 1/3 quarters. They just fell apart at the end, so even shorthanded, it should have been a win, and it could have saved their season as far as a good bowl game went.

I've got Georgia finishing 8-4 with a 5-3 conference record, but I'm iffy on them beating Georgia Tech on the road. They could also take out Auburn at home if they get some breaks. I've got Auburn, Missouri, and South Carolina at 6-2 regular season and LSU, Texas A&M, and Georgia at 5-3. Of course if Missouri beats South Carolina (who is playing without Connor Shaw supposedly), then that part of the projections will get thrown out of whack since Missouri might go to the Capital One Bowl instead. I think Georgia could go to the Chick-fil-a in this scenario as well and they would be eligible for the Outback or Cotton if those bowls wanted them over another team. It's hard to find rules about the selection process.

As far as I know, the SEC bowls can take teams that are one game worse than the next best option. So if Georgia goes 5-3, they could be selected over a 6-2 South Carolina or something. I believe the Big 10 works in the same way. So we could have a team like South Carolina drop to the Gator Bowl if they go 6-2 or 5-3.