Way-Too-Early Top 25: 2014

[Eric]

Well with spring practice right around the corner and most teams knowing where they stand heading into 2014, I thought I'd post my way-too-early Top 25 just to see your guys' thoughts. This is obviously subject to change the more I learn and hear about these particular teams, as I don't have as much info on the upcoming season as I'd like to at this point.

Here goes nothing:

1. Florida State
2. Auburn
3. Oregon
4. Alabama
5. UCLA
6. South Carolina
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Notre Dame
10. Baylor
11. Michigan State
12. Oklahoma
13. Ohio State
14. Ole Miss
15. Wisconsin
16. Oklahoma State
17. Clemson
18. USC
19. Missouri
20. Miami
21. Mississippi State
22. Maryland
23. Louisville
24. Penn State
25. Houston

Also considered: Arizona State, UCF, Texas, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Boise State, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Kansas State
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Some of these are self-explanatory, I suppose: Florida State took a hit with the draft, but they have a stable group of outstanding players and the best QB in the country. Auburn still has their rushing game completely intact. Alabama will reload, but they are more susceptible than they have been in recent years. Oregon returns a ton of their offensive weaponry and will score yet again. UCLA is returning almost their entire offense and their defense lacks any serious holes; usually, I dislike the Hot Sleeper Team of [insert season], but UCLA is one that I really think might live up to the hype. The preseason narrative hasn't really taken shape yet, but as it does over the summer, I would assume UCLA will be very popular in the media.

I suppose a couple of the more questionable moves are ranking Michigan State and Ohio State out of the top 10. Odds are they start the year near the backend of the top 10, but I have questions about Ohio State's offensive line and Michigan State, while a machine on defense, will be replacing some key playmakers on that side of the ball. They return fewer than half of their starting defense, so that is a question mark. They play Oregon early in the year in Autzen, and they might be overmatched. One of the preseason references I saw didn't have Wisconsin or Oklahoma State listed and, while I realize they are rebuilding a little bit on both sides of the ball, these programs have established themselves and they each have great head coaches. I expect them to stay right on track.

As for the bottom of my top 25, that's where things get murky. I was tempted to rank every team in the "also considered" portion. Mississippi State will definitely be an interesting team to watch out for with their blowout bowl performance providing some momentum. They get a lot of guys back and I really like the way the offense runs with Dak Prescott. This team underachieved a little bit last season, but part of that could be attributed to a tough schedule and a lack of luck. I'd look for them to post an 8 or 9 win season in a tough SEC West. Maryland is another team that has been very talented, but haven't gotten a lot of results in the Randy Edsall era. This team has athletes and should compete right away so long as they don't get depleted by the injury bug again. Houston has loads of returning talent and they were so young last year. The offense kept stalling against defenses that wouldn't roll over, but this year I think they take that next step and become a legitimately dangerous offense.

Arizona State is a team I really like, but they get two returning starters on defense. The offense will carry them through the easy games, but the Pac-12 is deep top-to-bottom yet again, so it remains to be seen if that unit will be good enough to compete in the tough games. UCF losing Bortles and Storm Johnson is a big blow and they draw Penn State (in Ireland), Missouri, and BYU in the non-conference slate. Texas obviously has the horses and Tyrone Swoopes, but you never know with a new coaching staff. A lock for 7 wins, probably 8.

Oh, where's Michigan, you ask? Don't. I'm feeling 9-3 in ultra-best-case scenario, 7-5 in a likely scenario, 6-6 in worst-case scenario. I was also surprised that I couldn't really consider Virginia Tech or Florida, as they almost always pop up somewhere on my preseason lists. VT might be able to surprise and string a nice season together, but Florida appears to be in a Fire-Will-Muschamp kind of season. They will have a very talented roster if they can stay healthy this year, but they still have to deal with Florida State, South Carolina, LSU, Missouri, Georgia, and Alabama and road games against Vanderbilt and Tennessee. 8-4 wouldn't actually be that bad with this slate, but I think a 7-5 season with a lack of explosiveness on offense will be enough to do in Muschamp.

[billybud]

The hit that FSU took in the draft was last year when they won the NC in spite of losing 11 to the draft...including the entire front starting D line.

FSU loses fewer this year.

FSU needs to find a red zone replacement for their freakish 6'5 WR who caught the last second winning TD in the NC game and needs the DT to come through and play like Timmy Jernigan did.

I expect Auburn to be very good...Bama will be good. Their new QB and his play will be the decider of how good.

Louisville, without Bridgewater, is a mystery. Good defense though.

I expect Ohio State and Michigan State to start in the top 10 or near to it.

[Eric]

The hit that FSU took in the draft was last year when they won the NC in spite of losing 11 to the draft...including the entire front starting D line.

FSU loses fewer this year.

You are right about that. I think sometimes returning starters can be overrated. If a group loses guys and they can fill in the gaps with talented players, they won't drop off. FSU was stacked last year and they're still stacked today. I would be shocked if they didn't wind up making the playoff. Can't see them dropping more than one game.

A couple other sleeper teams I like but I couldn't find room on the considering part for are Oregon State, Nebraska, Duke, Cincinnati, Marshall, and NC State. And I guess those teams I mentioned earlier (Michigan, Florida, Virginia Tech) would have to be in this range as well.

A little off-topic, but I think that Group of Five bowl slot will be fought out between Marshall, Boise State, Cincinnati, Houston, and Bowling Green. I don't think UCF will be highly rated enough due to their non-conference schedule, but Cincinnati would just need to take care of business and split between Ohio State and Miami. Houston still has an opening, but so far they just have UTSA, Grambling, and BYU. Marshall's most difficult game of the season will either be at Akron or at home against Rice or Middle Tennessee, no joke. The schedule really is that easy, so they have to be a prime candidate with their high-scoring offense still together.

[billybud]

Re the four team playoff...

....I think that the SEC Champ and Pac 12 Champs will be automatics....of the Champs of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Notre Dame...two of them will get left out.

The Big Ten has enough squeeze to make the cut if their Champ has one loss. The Big 12 Champ with one loss, and no CCG, may be vulnerable to an ACC Champ with one loss and one more win. Notre Dame? I don't know. But two losses would probably be a NC stopper.

[Swamp Daddy]

Here's the way ESPN looks at it for 'way too early 2014' poll:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... 5-rankings

I think for UL it will depend on a number of 'new' factors for 2014 including how Bobby Petrino meshes with Charlie Strong's leftovers which should be better than what he came in with the last time here. And, of course, entering a new league is bound to add a few speed bumps to the road though from what I see of ACC play we should be upper middle of the pack.

Time will tell, Swamp Daddy