Place to read, comment about Boise St.

[Eric]

I posted something similar to the above on the ESPN Conversation board, and the people are already frantically generating excuses so they can preserve their cute little preconceived fantasies :

**Are you guys selective in your memories or what? Let's run down this list: James Madison defeats Virginia Tech, Oklahoma defeats Utah State by single digits, Missouri defeats San Diego State in the waning moments on a 50+ yard touchdown strike, Nebraska defeated South Dakota State 17-3, Wisconsin beat San Jose State by 13, Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic by 13, LSU was leading McNeese State 22-10 after the third quarter, and Oregon looked awful for a while against Tennessee. I take it that all of these teams suck as well?**

The point is, major colleges over look these teams because they are usually sandwiched in a respectable schedule. Boise has to come out prepared because they play these teams every week!

Boise played a poor game tonight. But of course the people are rushing to condemn Boise State based on this one performance. If you've watched them all year, you should know this is not their usual output.

[WoVeU]

I gotta start paying more attention! I wasn't doing crap tonight and would have liked to seen Boise State play.

[silverfox]

OMG BSU Lost

What a tragedy

[Dossenator]

Boise did not play well but still won the game. With 4 or 5 minutes left in the third quarter La Tech was only down by 2 TD's and had a first and goal. Looked like it was a going to be a game. Then Boise woke up and was up by 30 or so by the time the 4th quarter began.

[silverfox]

Boise State played a terrible game and well below it's standards. Despite the almost 30 point win they will be ridiculed. Louisiana Tech Really is a respectable team but they did sputter under the Pressure. Look for them to be more formidable next season. Kellen Moore threw his second interception of the season but did catch a touchdown pass. Boise State was minus it's starter kicker and special teams still a little raw.


But they played and they won and by a respectible margin. Not the traditional Blowout margin expectations than most place on their impossible position.

I look for them to drop to 4 or 5 in the BCS polls after this.

But it won't deter them... They will analyze the films and they will be up and ready for next week's game against Hawaii on ESPN. Hawaii will probably blow the doors off Idaho on Saturday.

[billybud]

It looked like the Hawaii-La Tech game...La Tech lost 41-21...or the A&M game where La Tech lost 48-16....

Look...it was a win for Boise. But nothing out of the ordinary over a team that has been losing similarly to other teams. I do expect that Boise had a little bit of a let down....but that is the beauty of playing such an opponent. A letdown won't lose you a game, you just might not cover the spread.

[silverfox]

I agree with you Billybud.

In this case a letdown for Boise State is a lesson learned. Always gaters ( ) waiting in shallow and deep waters. They can never take any opponent lightly. Next week's game against Hawaii promises to keep you on the edge of your seat since Hawaii has the number one Passing offense in the nation and Boise State has the number 1 defense.

[billybud]

Hawaii does fling the ball a lot. The #1 in passing probably isn't as important as that #12 in Scoring Offense. Should be a game worth watching.

Boise's defensive tests so far...NCAA stats

Scoring Offense Rank

Virginia Tech......15
Oregon St..........55
Wyoming.........118
New Mex. St.....119
Toledo.............85
San Jose St......120
La Tech...........83

Outside of VT, three of the worst teams in football in Scoring Offense...one team at #55 which is in the better half of IA, and one at #85 in the lesser half of IA.

Hawaii should be more interesting then some of these games...

[billybud]

Except that BCS computers may not use score differential....

[donovan]

Opinion is quoted as fact. How do we know human polls use score differential.

[billybud]

Most computer algorithmns did use point differentials because it makes for a more predictive algorithmn...the BCS required its participating six computer sytems to drop the scoring differential and they did. Sagarin runs his BCS Elo Chess algorithmn but also maintains his more predictive Predictor algorythmn.

[Spence]

The bad thing about using point differentials is the computers look at every game as if the team put out maximum effort. Sagarin accounts for running a score up on a weak team, but doesn't not do anything for teams that empty the bench to two quarters. They attempt to do it by accounting for a teams schedule strength, but the schedule strength can't be accurately measured until the season is over, because there isn't enough crossover to create an accurate sample. That is why SOS isn't a good indicator. I may be able to see this team is better and this conference is better, but the computers don't have a handle on that at all. Actually unless you actually break down game film and take measurements on speed and things like that, I can't really don't have enough info either.

[billybud]

A small reach Spence...

In the computers now...a win is just a win...by 30 or by 1.

It's just that a 10 or 15 point win is better than a 2 or 3 point scrape by. if you empty the becnch in two quarters, you probably have a pretty comfortable point margin...enough to reflect the relative powers of the two team.

Boise's 40 point blow outs now look to the computers just like a 2 point slide by over San Jose State. We humans see the score and interpolate. Why they do not let the computers have the same eyes is beyond me.

[Spence]

I'm not speaking for the current system. The current way of doing it is worse than the old way.

I do agree that there is a difference between 12-14 point win and a 2 point win. There is also a difference in strength of teams as you have said. None of that is wrong, but the way we measure it is wrong. The way humans do it-by marveling over offense without looking at the types of defenses being play. By not giving good defensive wins enough weight. There are just so many problems with this system of determining it that I think I would rather scrap it all and go back to the old way. Let ten different people award NC's and let fans and alumni have fun during bowl week. Then after it is all over, we can all argue about it.

There just is no real way of ranking teams that the public would except. People don't want to see a two loss team ranked number one with a couple undefeated and one loss teams also in the mix. Even if that two loss team is rated the best team in the country. We don't give teams credit for getting better during the season - which is the worst part of this system. No matter how you set it up, without radically changing FBS scheduling on a national basis, we have a beauty contest. It isn't a system to determine the best team or the best couple teams. It is a system to pair two teams who we like to watch play.

[donovan]

None of us disagree on how it is done...according to what little knowledge we have...proprietary information keeps us from knowing exactly. We know what Billybud said is right because Sagrin and Congrove have both stated that is what was required. My point, which always is so irrelevant to most everything, is postings that make these assumptions are just opinion and not facts, no matter how much we suspect that is the case.