1. Illinois State at Ball State
Ball State will be good for a MAC team this year, but as a fan of the conference at-large, this game scares me. Illinois State made the playoffs last year with a win over Eastern Michigan, but from what I could tell, they lose their starting QB/RB/WR trio. I just think the Cards will be sluggish and struggle early to put them away.
2. North Dakota State at Kansas State
Kansas State is going into transition mode and North Dakota State is the one FCS program you don't want to play. The Bison won the national title last year and, on a pure interdivision power scale, are probably one of the top 60-70 teams in the entire nation. Not your typical FCS team here as they can play defense and run the football. Kansas State should win in the 4th quarter, but I think it'll be down to the last two possessions. I would almost call this game a tossup, though.
3. Toledo at Florida
I'm tempted to call this shocker, but I don't have the guts. Toledo gets a lot of experience back with a decent offense and Florida has struggled against inferior competition before, especially last year. Toledo I think will lose late as the Gators pull away, but I could see the Rockets carrying a lead at halftime and beyond. They'll probably choke if they do
4. Rice at Texas A&M
There's so many question marks floating around A&M right now. Rice's close-but-no-cigar chances probably depend on Manziel getting suspended. If he does, this game will at least get 15-20 points closer than it would have otherwise. Rice will score against A&M with or without Manziel, but the difference between 65 and 45 points could make this one to sweat out for the Aggies.
5. Western Kentucky at Tennessee
Tennessee is going to be bad this year. With a capital B. They are retooling everything from the bottom up and Butch Jones will be taking the year to sort through everything. Tennessee has more talent, but Petrino gives them a definite coaching edge here. I'm tempted to take WKU here, but I could see Tennessee pulling away late based on sheer athleticism alone.
6. San Diego State at Ohio State
Ohio State has been a little sluggish in the Horseshoe against inferior opponents before (although obviously roster turnover makes year-by-year comparisons futile). SDSU is a talented squad that will surprise people in this one. While that game was an eon ago, this matchup will remind us a lot of the 2003 version that probably only Spence and I remember
7. Indiana State at Purdue
Indiana State used to be a laughingstock of sorts, but they have gotten a lot better over the last five years or so. Purdue is going through a big coaching change transition right now, and I think the Sycamores should take this deep into the fourth quarter. The deeper team should pull away, but you never know.
