I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

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Re: I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

Postby Spence » Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:01 pm

billybud wrote:They have no destiny in basketball....you just buy into the illusion.

Data is data...and the data says that they have zero chance....we just like the Horatio Alger story...it could happen, someday, maybe, if I lit a candle to St. Jude...

They control zippo...or we would have a seed 9-16 with a statistical chance to win...


Here is the difference: if any team in basketball wins every game, including tournament games they win the championship.
In football, that same option isn’t available to them. However much of an “illusion” it is, they do control their destiny. It isn’t the same. The chance of winning it all may be similar, but it isn’t the same.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Re: I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

Postby billybud » Mon Nov 13, 2023 2:07 pm

Sooo...basketball is different than football...wow

Losses in basketball regular season mean little in comparison....basketball has 32 games before the tourney compared with football's 12 (unless you play in the conference championship, then 13)

Other than whine that a team like undefeated Liberty (ranked #48 on strength by Sagarin's Predictor) should play before a 7-4 SoCal (ranked #17 in Sagarin's )...what do you propose ? A 64 team tourney, with a possibility of six games past the regular season ?

Play all 133 teams so that everyone "has a path" ?
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

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Re: I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

Postby Spence » Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:36 pm

No, I propose letting teams that have no shot not be in the FBS if they can’t under any circumstances win. If there is no path to a championship then put them in a division where they can compete.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Re: I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

Postby billybud » Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:42 pm

I agree...it is insanity to think that with 133 teams spread on a Bell Curve of strength that the bottom half of that curve competes with the top quartile...

Akron and Alabama both purport to play for the same prize...as do Marshall and Michigan..

For gawd's sake, Ohio State is 18-0 vs the MAC since 2000...in what universe are they competitors ? Michigan is 21-1..

Split up FBS...133 teams competing for the same championship is a fiction...
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

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Re: I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

Postby billybud » Tue Nov 14, 2023 8:38 am

Tidbit...

So far in 2023, a team favored by 7 points has won 88% of the time. Teams favored by 10 points won 92.5% of the time.
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Re: I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

Postby Spence » Tue Nov 14, 2023 2:16 pm

billybud wrote:I agree...it is insanity to think that with 133 teams spread on a Bell Curve of strength that the bottom half of that curve competes with the top quartile...

Akron and Alabama both purport to play for the same prize...as do Marshall and Michigan..

For gawd's sake, Ohio State is 18-0 vs the MAC since 2000...in what universe are they competitors ? Michigan is 21-1..

Split up FBS...133 teams competing for the same championship is a fiction...


That has always been my argument , If there is no path to winning, they shouldn't be in the mix. If they are in, then there should be a clear path, however unlikely. I think it would be reasonable to have a clear path to winning for 80 or so teams. Probably only likely that 10-15 actually have a chance to win it all.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Re: I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

Postby Eric » Sun Nov 26, 2023 1:21 pm

I like those teams like Liberty or JMU getting into a playoff, just to weed out the teams in the first round that don't deserve it should they lose in a 1st round upset. Plus, I think there is a structural issue at play. By denying them a realistic chance to compete, you're basically cutting them off the get-go. There's a cartel-like element at play with the way big-school college football handles this type of stuff. They're non-competitive because they don't have access to the "Power Five/Four" resources and prestige.

Every time a team makes the leap into a Power Conference, their results don't necessarily get better, but their athletes usually get bigger and faster. Basically what Cincinnati did when they went from C-USA to the Big East, or TCU from the MWC to the Big 12, or Utah into the Pac-12. Then they can use that as a launching pad to compete nationally instead of stringing together some kind of cinderella run. Or in the reverse scenario, watch what happens to Oregon State and Washington State when they are cut off from Pac-12 money, and they morph into looking like a MWC team.

There's not necessarily a good answer to this, because you say the same for much smaller schools like Grand Valley or Mount Union, that if they were in the B1G they would be better at football, so it's unfair? Not really. Just making a point that larger schools are just out to get theirs and try to cut everyone else off if they can--"Deserve" or "fair" doesn't really factor into it, but at the end of the day, outside of the alumni base / TV market / athletic department funding, it is arbitrary on the margins to decide who is a have and who is a have-not. I don't see an issue with the 12-team format letting one non-power champ get a bite at the apple. There's usually one worthy team, or at least there was before BYU, UCF, TCU, Utah, Cincy, and Houston got absorbed into power conferences. But water should find its own level and there will be teams like Liberty or JMU or a revitalized Boise State that should rise up.
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Re: I was beginning to believe the tail was wagging the dog…….

Postby Spence » Mon Nov 27, 2023 12:01 am

That is pretty much how I feel. I don’t mind if they are there, but if they are they should have a path to the championship and if they don’t they shouldn’t be part of it. Because they really aren’t a legit member of the league.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain


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