Season Preview 2006

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Spence
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Postby Spence » Thu May 04, 2006 8:05 pm

Welcome aboard. I live near Chillicothe, Ohio. I have been to Colerain many times. I did a job in Cleves, once, and we stayed in Colerain. My wifes sister did her masters in nursing at UC.

Yes, the 'cats put a scare into us in 2002. Had it not been for the interception by Will Allen we would have lost the game. We finished fourteen and O that year, but it could have just as easily been 9-5. There were a lot of close ones in '02. :shock:
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Postby Eric » Fri May 05, 2006 12:44 pm

Darn those lucky Buckeyes :x
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Postby Eric » Fri May 05, 2006 12:48 pm

What are your guys' predictions for 2006? I have a couple suprises in mine:

ACC: Georgia Tech
Big East: Louisville
Big 10: Iowa
Big 12: Oklahoma
SEC: Tennessee
Pac-10: Arizona State
C-USA: ECU
MAC: Central Michigan
MWC: I think Utah and TCU will tie eachother, but I think Utah will win the tiebreak.
Sun Belt: North Texas
WAC: Boise State
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

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Postby Spence » Tue May 09, 2006 12:44 am

Here is my early Ohio State preview.

The Ohio State offense should be very good this year. Fifth year senior Troy Smith will be back at Qb to lead the charge. Ohio State loses Santonio Holmes to the Steelers, but T. Ginn and Gonzo are back along with probably Roy Hall or Albert Dukes . Also two young guys that made some noise in the spring game Robiske and Hartline. Ohio State will have very good depth at receive, but TG's route running needs to keep improving as he will be the go to receiver this year.

The Offensive line has a lot of depth and experience back. the big problem on the line is center. Replacing Nick Mangold is the top priority. If you here a guy named Jimmy Cordle starting at center, Ohio State's O-line should be very solid, if Doug Datish has to move to center it will be a work in progress.

The strength of the Buckeye offense this year should be the running game. Pittman rushed for 1300+ yards last year and he should be complimented and pushed by incoming freshman Chris Wells. Wells was rated the #1 RB in the nation last year and was the #1 player in the nation on some boards. He had the most impressive Spring game of any of the RBs. Eric Haw and Mo Wells should provide depth. Ohio State will finally have the ability to have a power running game. It should give the coaches plenty of options in their play calling and make it that much harder to make the Buckeye O one dimensional. Look for Ohio State give a lot of different looks this year.

Now comes the question mark. Defense. The Ohio State defense lost 9 members to the NFL. Included in that group was arguably the best collection of linebackers in the country. While it would be impossible for this years group to pick up where others left off, Ohio State probably has more depth and experience at that position then they did last year.

The defensive line is the strength of the defense this year. Two returning starters and lots of depth should make the Buckeye D-line very solid and they will need to be because they will have to keep the heat on to let a very green secondary learn on the job.

The Ohio State secondary is very inexperienced. Only one guy with any real game experience. They will need to mature quickly if Ohio State want to put together any sort of run to a championship.

The punter, as usual for Tressel teams, is excellent and the kicker kicked a 59 yard field goal in the kick scrimmage and has kicked a 61 yarder in practice with room to spare.

Ted Ginn needs to keep hold of the ball on punt returns and over all the Buckeye's will need to cut down on turnovers this year especially fumbles to be a force.

The offense will need to carry the load, especially early. Ohio State has tough road games @ Texas, @ Iowa, and @ Michigan State this year. How they do against Texas in Sept. should give us an idea of who the Buckeyes will be next year. If they can survive the early games and give the defense a chance to get their sea legs it could be a good year for the Buckeyes. If not, it could be trouble for the Scarlet and Grey.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Postby Spence » Tue May 09, 2006 12:57 am

We need as many previews as we can get guys. They sooner the better. The previews can always be amended or added to and there is no such thing as a bad one. The more info we have, the better job we can do with the voting and the predictions game. :idea:
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Postby Derek » Tue May 09, 2006 12:51 pm

Eric wrote:What are your guys' predictions for 2006? I have a couple suprises in mine:

ACC: Georgia Tech
Big East: Louisville
Big 10: Iowa
Big 12: Oklahoma
SEC: Tennessee
Pac-10: Arizona State
C-USA: ECU
MAC: Central Michigan
MWC: I think Utah and TCU will tie eachother, but I think Utah will win the tiebreak.
Sun Belt: North Texas
WAC: Boise State


Im gonna have to disagree with Tenn in the SEC. Im looking for Auburn or LSU to take the title this year.

I also think the WVU is going to take the Big East again, and another Sugar or Orange Bowl trip.

Of course I said Tenn. last year and my boys took it. Who can tell with the SEC...... :?

I'll agree with you on the ACC and Pac-10

The Big-10 will be taken by Ohio State.

The rest I dont follow and cannot make a valid prediction.
They’re either going to run the ball here or their going to pass it.

The fewer rules a coach has, the fewer rules there are for players to break.

See, well ya see, the thing is, he should have caught that ball. But the ball is bigger than his hands.

- John Madden

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Postby billybud » Tue May 09, 2006 1:11 pm

I went to some practices and the spring scrimmage here in Tallahassee...

My take on FSU...2006

OVERALL...the defense will be solid..the offense will be better than last year but still not one that will get any raves...the O line is better but is still not an O line that can successfully run block on Miami, VT, Clemson, and the like.

I still like FSU to get to the CCG.


OFFENSE>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>



QUARTERBACK..8.0 (on 1-10 scale)

The QB looks to be solid...Weatherford is seeing the field and making the reads. More experienced and threw only one INT all spring. Has a huge upside...if he gets injured...who knows? The primary back up QB's in spring were two walk ons. Drew could have a better touch on the deep balls...but the throw and jump isn't bad if your receivers can get up to the ball.

OFFENSIVE LINE...6.0

OK...but not great. A little thin so injuries could hurt (but not as thin as last year). A year under their belt with a new blocking scheme (Zone) that was instituted last year. Stronger and healthier than last year. Pretty decent starters..its the backups who are lacking. Worked on running game in spring...I expect FSU to still be a predominately pass oriented team, but they want to be able to keep defenses honest. Good pass protection and decent (not great) run blocking.

RUNNING BACKS...8.0

Look good...Antone Smith is coming on strong (built like a beast, runs 4.35 but benches 435), Lorenzo Booker is great laterally but not between the tackles. Jamaal Edwards and Smith look to be the power runners with Booker the outside runner. True Freshman Marcus Simms is a horse. RB's broke some runs in scrimmages in spring against an aggressive defense. if a team doesn't play lane discipline in defense, these guys can take advantage.

WIDE RECEIVERS.....7.5

Deep and experienced. Greg Carr is tough to defend at 6'6" and he had a great spring. Speed, size...I'd give the unit an 8.5-9.0 if a go-to guy would emerge other than Carr.

FB...5.0

Surratt only FB returning...an injury puts in inexperience. Great athletes but little game experience behind Surratt.

TE....6.0

Two really good freshmen and a redshirt freshman...unproven but talented. This inexperience may be a problem in third and short and goal line situations...the blocking needs to mature quickly. If the kids learn quickly, the rating will go up.

DEFENSE>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

DE....7.0

Deepest position on team...missing a 1st rounder and you could tell last year when he was out! If Boston or Brown emerges, this score could move up. Neefy Moffett (sophomore) at 263 has a lot of upside. Really good potential at DE's but, like Bobby says, "potential means they ain't done it yet".

DT....6.0

Again, lots of potential, but no proven "Bunkley" (gone in draft). I don't think that the penetration will be like Bunk's...but there is solid talent. Bunkly could collapse the pocket while standing up a double team...he's hard to duplicate. The success of the Nole D will depend on how well the DT's play. No 300 pounders this year like Bunk...but guys who go 280-290 and have motors. This spot is my main key to how well the defense will play. Andrew's defenses are built around DT's who demand doubling, stuff holes, and make it difficult for QB's to step up into the pocket when avoiding the outside rush. I am a little worried that there will be a little drop off.

LB....8.0-9.0 (depends on the back ups speed of learning)

This unit has great speed and talent. The future is bright for this young group. Remember the name "Lawrence Timmons"...he has played better, so far, than Ernie Sims. Buster Davis, Derek Nicholson, Jae Thaxton, Geno Hayes return...no drop off from last year. Speed to burn..(Hayes 215...4.56, Timmons 230...4.6, Davis...4.48 at 240, Nicholson 232...4.6, Thaxton at 246 is 4.8 <a little slow, but not for MLB>).

DB (CB's and S's)....7.0

Young...but talented, could move up to an 8.0 if they mature quickly. Michael Ray Garvin, Tony Carter, Trevor Ford return for their second season of play...five star 2006 safety recruit Myron Rolle was a star in spring (he finished HS early to enroll in January)...he is too good to red shirt..LOL


KICKER...

Oh Gawd!! The only years that FSU did not have kicker problems were 1993 and 1999 (no coincidence that those were NC years). Three on schollies and none that are rock solid...the Penn State game would have never gone to OT if the kicker hadn't missed the only PAT in his career...missed kicks costs several games a year..could we please, please, kick 'em in this year.

MY FEARLESS PREDICTION..

The tough games are Miami, Clemson, Maryland, BC, Fla., and NC State....FSU drops two, maybe three....I go with 10-2.

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Postby Spence » Tue May 09, 2006 5:32 pm

Nice job BB. Thanks!
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Postby Eric » Tue May 09, 2006 8:20 pm

Florida State will have a tough hurdle to jump through with the players on defense leaving for the NFL. Ernie Sims, Broderick Bunkley, Kamerion Wimbley, A.J. Nicholson, and Pat Watkins. Is it just me, or are these some big holes on defense?

I'm sure FSU can reload though.
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Postby billybud » Tue May 09, 2006 10:03 pm

Eric...depends on whether you rebuild or reload...FSU's defense has reloaded...

Bunkley did get drafted in the 1st round....you know what...when 2004 ended, folks were saying "who is going to replace DT Travis Johnson?" Travis was drafted first round, pick 16....Bunkley did a fine job following Travis...another reload.

Cromartie (CB )did go in the 1st round...but Cro didn't play a down last year...the same CB's play this year as last (only more experienced). You'll hear about them in the draft in a few years (they are still young).

Ernie Sims (LB) did go in the first round...Lawrence Timmons is as good or better...in the ACC Championship game, Timmons (as Ernie's backup) had 8 tackles, 2 sacks...and he had another sack against PSU in the Orange Bowl backing up Ernie. Voted by coaches after spring practice as the top newcomer (new starter). reload

Wimbley went 1st round...but he was back up to Eric Moore until Moore was drafted after 2004 season. Now Boston, Brown, and Warren (a five star freshman) are following...but I say, watch for Neefy Moffet..another future NFL draftee. reload

Pat Watkins was drafted..but Myron Rolle (who some services had as the #1 player nationally) replaces him. Also Pat's backups are ready to start...reload.

The defense will not drop off....

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Postby Eric » Wed May 10, 2006 7:03 am

Doesn't look like it if they play that way :shock:

FSU usually has some athletes on both sides of the ball. I would maybe expect a slight dropoff, but these guys appear to have what it takes. What do you think about the 'Noles schedule? I think they should win 9 or 10 games.
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Postby billybud » Wed May 10, 2006 10:02 am

Re Noles schedule...much easier this year than next (when Bama, Fla, and Colorado are OOC)

Toughest games....Miami and Florida...no tougher duo to play IMHO. These two teams beat more good teams than almost anybody.

Next toughest...Clemson, BC, NC State..(Clemson will be loaded)

Middle games...these are where the "WTF" losses come...Maryland, Virginia, Wake

Pen in as winners...Duke, Rice, Troy, Western Michigan

I think that Miami, Florida, Clemson, and BC will close the year ranked in the AP...if FSU wins two out of the four, they will have done well, three of four would be fabulous...

Prediction FSU 9-3....10-2 would be more than I expect, but welcomed.

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Postby Eric » Tue May 16, 2006 4:44 pm

I was about to submit this post on the "Who do you like for the National Championship Game?" thread. I noticed when I was about halfway through it, that this should go on the preview thread. So, this was my list of the elite in college football and who should really contend for a title:



Wow, this is a tough one. Last year I selected USC and Florida because I thought the
Urban Meyer spread offense was going to propell them to the next level. At least I got
half of it right (who didn't though?).

As for this year, this is so hard. I'll have to do an elimination process, I guess, since I
haven't thought of it so far this season.

ACC:
Florida State: Legit shot; if Weatherford comes through, they could very easily win the
ACC. FSU has to remember to stay focused throughout the course of the season, which I
don't think will be a problem because the only reason why they were so sporadic over the
course of the season was when they beat Boston College, they won the divison pretty
much.

Miami: I don't really like the idea of this new coaching staff and Kyle Wright. I think
you're going to have to give Wright another season before he becomes what everyone
thinks he can do and for the team to get familiar with the new coaches. They have as legit
a shot as anyone.

Virginia Tech: No Marcus Vick? I can't see VT finishing any better than 8 wins though.

I have Georgia Tech winning the ACC anyway, so unless there is a 2003 Oklahoma
situation, I don't think these teams will be in the NC.


Big East:
West Virginia: Once again, they have as legit a shot as anyone. I think the hype might be
a wee bit too much pressure. I see Louisiville knocking them off in Papa John's Stadium.

Louisville: Not enough defense. They might have enough to scrap by West Virginia, but
if they get through that, they'll likely win the Big East with a one game cushion. They're
losing one game in the Big East and one to Miami anyway, so I think they'll be
eliminated.


Big 10:
Ohio State: Sure, the new wave of defensive players looks nice, but can a team seriously
replace an entire defensive back 7? I don't know. Troy Smith might win them the Big
10, but I can't like the chances for a national title.

Michigan: No.

Iowa: Here's an interesting team. The Hawkeye preview is yet to come out, but it
appears that wide reciever might present an issue with Clinton Solomon and Ed Hinkel
gone. Drew Tate will really light it up this year. I've got the Hawkeyes winning the Big
10. I'm kind of torn right now. I want to pick Iowa to go to the title, but it's probably not
happening.

Penn State: No Michael Robinson and not enough defensive backfield talent to fill holes
left by Anwar Phillips and Alan Zemitis. I like their chances for a decent bowl game, but
not the NC.


Big 12:
Texas: If Vince Young were to come back, I think the Longhorns might be as favored to
win the title this year as USC was in 2005. They do get the nucleus of the team back but
2 freshman QBs represents the biggest obstacle. I think Texas will get past those and be
in a BCS game, but they aren't even going to be in the Big 12 championship game
because....

Oklahoma: Will win it. A lot coming back, they went through serious growing pains last
season and you've gotta like their chances. If Rhett Bomar plays halfway decent, this
team should be good enough to win the whole thing. They're my pick #1 in the
championship game.


Pac-10:
USC: Gee, this is another team that has an extremely legitimate chance at a title. USC is
USC, and the 4th stringers and roster cuts could win the WAC if they wanted to; they're
that deep. The depth of USC is tremendous and the starters are 5 stars all across the
board. John David Booty is fabulous! There is the running back situation, that should
work itself out, they might miss Malone the punter, and the defense wasn't very good last
year. Maybe, if the defense gives the offense enough cushioning, they can win the
Pac-10.

Arizona State: Here is my favorite for the Pac-10 title. Now, I know they've been
underachieving, but I think they can beat USC in their house. The offense is so amazing,
the line is very good, they got some defensive help through the JUCO ranks, and overall
they just look very good. Sam Keller will lead the offense to a Pac-10 championship.

Cal: I don't really take this team as seriously as others do. I think they'll be good, not
fantastic. The offense will be awesome if Longshore remains healthy and Marshawn
Lynch plays out of his mind. The defense will probably play decently, but I think that
game against Tennessee will knock these guys out right away.


SEC:
LSU: This is another team I want to go with. They're always so loaded, and they have,
without question, the greatest handful of quarterbacks on a single team. Period.
Perriloux, Flynn, and Russell are all extremely good quarterbacks. The defensive talent is
there, too. This team will win the SEC West, but....

Tennessee: Is going to win the conference. That's right, I know, Tennessee. The 5-6
team that Memphis battled, that lost to Vanderbilt, and lost very close games to the SEC
elite. I think the coming of Cutcliffe will be enough to give the offense a boost.

Alabama: Looking at the schedule, this is the one team that is etched in stone for a bowl
game. I mean, look at it! Hawaii at home, Florida International, Duke, Mississippi State,
UL Monroe, it's so easy! All they have to do is make room for one error, and they'll be
mentioned for the title game. But, like you guys say about West Virginia, that may come
back to haunt them. But wins against some fantastic SEC teams might make up for that.
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Postby RazorHawk » Tue May 16, 2006 7:14 pm

Spence wrote:It is the same crap that the media was doing with Notre Dame last year. The media loves offense. Ohio State probably won't win the B-10 this year, well enough the BCS.

The LBs will be pretty good this year also, but the DBs are the big question. There is only one guy with experience. Lots of talent, though, and by the time we play your boys we should be a pretty good team. It will just be too late to do anything nationally. No one loses 9 guys on D and doesn't skip a beat. We won't either.

Key game should the Sept 30th matchup in Iowa City. Hopefully both teams will be unbeaten going in to this game.

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Postby Spence » Tue May 16, 2006 7:18 pm

RazorHawk wrote:Key game should the Sept 30th matchup in Iowa City. Hopefully both teams will be unbeaten going in to this game.


The game at Kinnick scares me as much as the Texas game. Kinnick is a tough place to play at night.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain


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