Who do you like for the National Championship Game?

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billybud
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Who do you like for the National Championship Game?

Postby billybud » Mon May 15, 2006 6:52 pm

I like...

1...WEST VIRGINIA...the Mountaineers are good and only have one real test, Louisville....
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Schedule...

Marshall.....coming off a bad year

Eastern Washington....ink in the win

Maryland...........rebuilding, new QB, bad spring

Miss St.........had horrible, horrible season

Syracuse.....another team in disarray last year

UCONN........a decent mid tier program

Louisville.....THE TEST

Cincinatti.....another team who had a bad year

Pitt...........better than the record...rebuilding

S. Fla........still not a big boy

Rutgers......decent mid tier...still not a big boy



2. SOUTHERN CAL....they lose a lot but still have three highly ranked recruiting classes on board...

Schedule...play the PAC 10...should be favored in every game...Catch ND late. May have time to develop by ND game time....may get by without more than one ranked team until Nov. 25.


WHAT VEGAS LIKES....VEGAS ODDS..

http://www.vegasinsider.com/u/futures/FBC_1435.cfm

RUN, NOW..WHILE YOU CAN...IF YOU LIKE WEST VIRGINIA, GET YOUR MONEY DOWN...ODDS ON WINNING NC ARE SAME AS MIAMI'S, FSU'S, OR AUBURN'S.

Haven't figured that odds line out...maybe the oddsmakers think that it is more difficult to win the NC than just getting to the game. I sure have WVU as having the main chance of playing for it.

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Postby Spence » Mon May 15, 2006 7:00 pm

I'm leaning toward LSU at the moment. My second choice would be Oklahoma.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Postby billybud » Mon May 15, 2006 7:04 pm

I like Oklahoma better than LSU....just because there seem to be more WTF losses in the SEC...

LSU looked unstoppable in the bowl, though...Good choice.

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Postby Howdy » Mon May 15, 2006 7:52 pm

If Ohio ST. gets by Texas
they are my choice.
If not then OKla.

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Postby Jason G » Mon May 15, 2006 10:56 pm

I also like West Virginia. The only problem is if there are three or more undefeated teams at the end of the season the strength of schedule may be their downfall.

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Postby Derek » Tue May 16, 2006 1:52 am

Jason G wrote:I also like West Virginia. The only problem is if there are three or more undefeated teams at the end of the season the strength of schedule may be their downfall.


Yes. that and the fact that Notre Dame might be up in the picture too, due to the love fest.

NOTRE DAME 5/1 5/1

This will most likely keep WV out of any championship game. Whether they deserve it or not, they will most likely be kept out, by the "opinion polls" and a watered down BCS computer system wont be able to override them.

But I think they will go undefeated, and will be one of the better teams in the country.

And somebody tell me how you can get clobbered in a bowl game by 37 points and still get these odd's to win EVERYTHING the next year??

MIAMI-FLA 15/1 15/1 ???? Dont see it.

Thank God for the BCS computers.
They’re either going to run the ball here or their going to pass it.

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Postby billybud » Tue May 16, 2006 12:32 pm

David...according to betting sites, the oddsmakers opening odds are usually based on their sports bet research...changes of the odds after opening are usually because of bet flow.

While the book wants folks to bet, they also do not want to have odds that overly favor the better.

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Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue May 16, 2006 3:20 pm

TCU and Notre Dame. Hope it happens, too.
Vegas got it half-right, anyway!
They have 5-1 odds on Notre Dame winning it all.
80-1 for TCU. Guess I won't bet the house.

All others got 60-1 odds, I guess that means it's about as likely for TCU to win a national championship as it is for SMU to do it.

too bad they don't play each other, I'd put money on those odds.

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Postby Eric » Tue May 16, 2006 4:26 pm

This is such a difficult question. I don't know where to turn. My guess would be to have Oklahoma and Tennessee.

I really have a good feeling about the Vols this year. Looking at the schedule:

9-2-06 CALIFORNIA
9-9-06 AIR FORCE
9-16-06 FLORIDA
9-23-06 MARSHALL
9-30-06 at Memphis
10-7-06 at Georgia
10-21-06 ALABAMA
10-28-06 at South Carolina
11-4-06 LOUISIANA STATE
11-11-06 at Arkansas
11-18-06 at Vanderbilt
11-25-06 KENTUCKY

Cal, Air Force, home against Florida, Marshall, Memphis, and at Georgia are going to be wins. I think the confidence factor will be working in Tennessee's favor. Alabama is the game I would be worried about. Their defense looks formidable. If they can get past Bama, South Carolina, then another awfully hard game but at home against LSU, at Arkansas's a win, Vandy is a revenge game, and Kentucky is automatic.

So the only ones I see UT about to lose is to Louisiana State and to Alabama. Even if they lose one, this team might get the nod from the BCS.

I know it sounds crazy, but when I get too analytical, that's when I tend to not do too well. Oh well, it's a guessing game at this point in time.
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

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Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue May 16, 2006 4:43 pm

I disagree that it's even about who has the easiest schedule, to win a national championship you have to be the best team, irrespectively.
I was halfway joking about Notre Dame, I don't think they are anywhere close to being ready.
W. Virginia won't be there, either.
My money's on Alabama, winning it all, they better not let me down!

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Postby Eric » Tue May 16, 2006 4:48 pm

Really? The good thing about this season is in the preseason, you can make any prediction and you can't get ridiculed for it because most every tradionally elite schools have a legitimate chance :lol:
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

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Postby Eric » Tue May 16, 2006 5:18 pm

Yeah, I have just a little hunch that they can do it. I'm not the greatest SEC psychic, but there is just something about Tennessee this year. I like their offense. The defense doesn't look outstanding, but I think they can get it done better and better as the season goes on.

The D-line is talented but inexperienced and Justin Harrell is crazy good.

The linebacking core isn't very experienced either. It's going to be tough, but these guys look good. Now, I know Ohio State is in the same situation, but Ohio State had a lot of NFL talent on that defense, so I can't see a beat not missed. Same goes for Tennessee. The run D might take a hit early on, but as the season progresses, both teams will pick it up.

The secondary has some veterans and they look solid as well.

The only question about that Cal game is, "can they stop Marshawn Lynch?" I don't know. I think that will act as an equalizer and I think Tennessee's offense will be where it's at early on.
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Postby ktffan » Tue May 16, 2006 5:56 pm

It seems every year a team gets predicted to win the title because of their "easy schedule". Last year's popular favorite was Louisville (never understood that one). Every year some teams jump up that nobody expected to be good. Predicting strength of schedule is tough in the pre-season. Always a lot of surprises along the way.

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Postby billybud » Tue May 16, 2006 6:50 pm

I think that relative schedule strength isn't as hard to predict as WTF losses...a loss to a team that should be beaten.

I noticed in the ACC last year, that a few breaks or coming out flat could be a WTF loss....Clemson is playing good ball and then along comes Wake, BC has the division wrapped up and along comes North Carolina, VT is favored by double digits to go Orange Bowling and along comes FSU.

In the BE, Louisville was cruising until USF wiped them out....that's the fun of college ball.

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Postby Spence » Tue May 16, 2006 8:10 pm

I think Miami has some problems to work out. I don't think they are ready yet.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain


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