Updated Bowl Projections

[Eric]

New Mexico: Air Force vs. Temple*
Humanitarian: Ohio vs. Nevada
New Orleans: UL Lafayette vs. Western Michigan*
Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg: Tulsa vs. Louisville
Poinsettia: San Diego State vs. Louisiana Tech
MAACO Las Vegas: TCU vs. Cal
Hawaii: Utah State vs. Wyoming*
Independence: Boise State vs. NC State
Little Caesar's: Purdue vs. Toledo
Belk: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Military: Wake Forest vs. Western Kentucky*
Holiday: Utah vs. Texas A&M
Champs: Florida State vs. Notre Dame
Alamo: Washington vs. Kansas State
Armed Forces: BYU vs. SMU
Pinstripe: Missouri vs. Rutgers
Music City: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia
Insight: Baylor vs. Ohio State
Meineke Car Care Bowl Of Texas: Texas vs. Iowa
Sun: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State
Liberty: Southern Miss vs. Mississippi State
Kraft Fight Hunger: Iowa State* vs. Northwestern*
Chick-fil-A: Clemson vs. Florida
TicketCity: Illinois vs. Marshall
Outback: South Carolina vs. Nebraska
Capital One: Arkansas vs. Michigan State
Gator: Penn State vs. Auburn
Rose: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
Sugar: Houston vs. Michigan
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Cotton: Oklahoma vs. Georgia
GoDaddy.com: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
BBVA Compass: Florida International* vs. Cincinnati
BCS: LSU vs. Alabama

Bolded teams have accepted bids. The only bowl bubble teams at this point are Hawaii (if they can beat BYU), UConn, USF, and UCLA. UCLA is 6-6, but you have to be .500 or better in order to get a bowl invite. As you probably can guess, UCLA will most likely get annihilated against Oregon on Friday, thus landing them with a 6-7 record and are thus put on the backburner (I guess going to the Pac-12 title game is more of a curse than a blessing). I don't see any of the other three teams winning, but if they do, they would most likely fill in the at-large opening in the Military Bowl and obviously Hawaii would wind up in the Hawaii Bowl.

CBS' projections have nobody taking Penn State until they hit the at-large market. I can't see this happening because, to my knowledge, the Big 10 has rules in place about how the bowls can select their teams. I don't think they can intentionally pass up teams with better records (I believe the rule is that if Team A is two games better in-conference than Team B, that the bowl can't take Team B over Team A). I think this would, at worst, put Penn State in the Insight Bowl or Texas Bowl. Maybe this rule has changed, but I don't know why CBS has Penn State as an at-large selection.

In this scenario, my only eligible team getting left out is 6-6 Ball State and Miami who declined the option of going to a bowl game. Keep in mind that they did remove the 7-5 Precedence rule that they installed a few years ago. So if Western Kentucky and Western Michigan are 7-5 and USF or UConn are 6-6, the bowls are under no obligation to select Western Kentucky or Western Michigan over those two teams. If one of them get eligible, I think Western Kentucky would get bounced. If both get eligible, than WKU and Western Michigan get bounced.

[RazorHawk]

My guess on the Capital One bowl, is that if Michigan St loses to Wisconsin, they may very well pass them over for Nebraska. Also, the Capital One bowl usually favors the East division teams of the SEC, as they are much closer to Orlando and will bring a better fan following. I know most Arkansas fans are hoping to get dropped all the way down to the Cotton Bowl and would probably bring 40,000 to 50,000 fans for a matchup with OU. My guess it that less than 15,000 would travel to Florida.

Also, Michigan State has been to the Citrus Bowl and I see them probably in the Outback. My guess is that South Carolina might be the choice of the Capital One bowl. Again bowl selection is not as much about rankings but the about the teams that they feel will make the bowl the best.

Normally, an Arkansas getting slighted with a 10-2 record to not play in the Citrus Bowl would be wrong. I do feel that the players probably would prefer the Citrus Bowl, as the perks of going to Orlando are ahead of Dallas, but most assuredly the fans would prefer Dallas. Will be an interesting selection for this bowl game, for both sides of the matchup.

Losing in a conference championship, will normally hurt the teams desirability to a bowl. I remember one year Arkansas lost (Alabama was on probation) in the SEC championship game and fell all the way to the Music City Bowl in Nashville.

[billybud]

I think that while FSU will probably be Orlando bound...that the Chic Fil A may still be in play for te Noles...

My reasoning:

With Florida losing, Auburn may be gaining momentum for the Chic Fil A. If Clemson loses to VT and now with Virginia's loss, Clemson would be the one to go. However, Clemson and Auburn have met in regular season and start the season off nest year in the Chic Fil A opener.

Just maybe, too much Clemson-Auburn.

[Eric]

My guess on the Capital One bowl, is that if Michigan St loses to Wisconsin, they may very well pass them over for Nebraska. Also, the Capital One bowl usually favors the East division teams of the SEC, as they are much closer to Orlando and will bring a better fan following. I know most Arkansas fans are hoping to get dropped all the way down to the Cotton Bowl and would probably bring 40,000 to 50,000 fans for a matchup with OU. My guess it that less than 15,000 would travel to Florida.

Also, Michigan State has been to the Citrus Bowl and I see them probably in the Outback. My guess is that South Carolina might be the choice of the Capital One bowl. Again bowl selection is not as much about rankings but the about the teams that they feel will make the bowl the best.

Normally, an Arkansas getting slighted with a 10-2 record to not play in the Citrus Bowl would be wrong. I do feel that the players probably would prefer the Citrus Bowl, as the perks of going to Orlando are ahead of Dallas, but most assuredly the fans would prefer Dallas. Will be an interesting selection for this bowl game, for both sides of the matchup.

Losing in a conference championship, will normally hurt the teams desirability to a bowl. I remember one year Arkansas lost (Alabama was on probation) in the SEC championship game and fell all the way to the Music City Bowl in Nashville.

Yeah, I considered this a possibility. Everybody else seems to think Arkansas will go to the Capital One much like they did in 2006. The Cotton Bowl has only used one SEC East team in the last 10 years (Tennessee in 2005). I think that after the Capital One grabs Arkansas off the board, the only logical choice remaining for the Cotton would be Georgia although I realize they would much prefer an SEC West team. I think there is a shot though that the Cap One grabs Georgia over Arkansas.

And I also agree that you could mix and match those teams in the Outback/Capital One. Nebraska or Michigan State could go to either one.

[billybud]

Eric...you may end up being right about WVU to the BCS bowl...

Although Louisville has the head to head with WVU, if Cincinnati and WVU both win this week, it will throw the conference into a three way tie. If no team has both head to heads (they don't), the BCS game goes to the highest in the BCS rankings...it appears that would be WVU since they are the only ones currently ranked.

[Eric]

Yeah I probably should put West Virginia in the BCS now. I still had my tiebreak messed up. I think Cincinnati and West Virginia will each win, although UConn is starting to come on kind of strong and Cincinnati is playing with their backup QB.

Louisiana Tech is also going to the Poinsettia Bowl.

[billybud]

FSU received invite from Champs Bowl yesterday (Notre Dame is the lock)...but awaiting next weekend to see if the Chic fil A may open up.

[Spence]

We are hearing the Gator bowl with Ohio State and Florida may be too good a TV match up for the bowl to pass up.

[billybud]

Yeah Spence...that's the speculation.

The Gators, if OSU has a decent defense, are toast. Their offense and their offensive line are really having problems.

[Spence]

Yeah Spence...that's the speculation.

The Gators, if OSU has a decent defense, are toast. Their offense and their offensive line are really having problems.

Nah, they will beat us. We are extremely thin and inexperienced at linebacker. I also think that because Meyer recruit most players on the team, they would be jacked. Still it would be a fun game for us to get. Probably the best team we could draw considering how bad we have been this year.

[billybud]

FSU reporters are now saying that the Chic fil A Bowl is being pressured to take Georgia Tech if VT beats Clemson.

GT has been to the Peach Bowl (Chic fil A) only once this decade.

It is looking like the FSU-Notre Dame match is becoming closer to a lock. I was hoping for a FSU-Auburn match up.

[donovan]

It looks like the FSU v Notre Dame game for the CHAMPS bowl may be the matchup...If so...they could be the best game of the bowls.

as a side note..Boise State against Louisiana Tech in the Poinsettia bowl....talk about falling from grace...Sominex could sponsor that one...Well..they did it to themselves.

[billybud]

I'd like to see Boise match up with a good team...one that could give them a game...

Boise vs Wisconsin, or Baylor...

[Spence]

I'd like to see Boise match up with a good team...one that could give them a game...

Boise vs Wisconsin, or Baylor...

Wisconsin isn't a good team.