Eric's 100% Inaccurate Bowl Projections: Week 4

[Eric]

New Mexico: Nevada vs. Oregon State
Las Vegas: Fresno State vs. Washington
Idaho Potato: Northern Illinois vs. Boise State
New Orleans: Rice vs. UL Lafayette
Beef O’Brady’s: Buffalo* vs. Middle Tennessee
Hawaii: San Jose State vs. North Texas
Little Caesar’s Pizza: Toledo vs. Arkansas State*
Poinsettia: Utah State vs. Ohio*
Military: Georgia Tech vs. ECU
Texas: TCU vs. Iowa
Kraft Fight Hunger: USC vs. BYU
Buffalo Wild Wings: Texas Tech vs. Wisconsin
Pinstripe: Rutgers vs. Notre Dame*
Belk: NC State vs. Cincinnati
Russell Athletic: UCF vs. Maryland
Armed Forces: Wyoming vs. Navy
Music City: Auburn vs. Virginia Tech
Alamo: Baylor vs. Arizona State
Holiday: Texas vs. UCLA
Sun: North Carolina vs. Arizona
Independence: Kansas State* vs. Ball State*
Liberty: Missouri vs. Marshall
Chick-fil-A: Clemson vs. Ole Miss
Gator: Minnesota vs. Florida
Capital One: Nebraska vs. South Carolina
Outback: Northwestern vs. Georgia
Heart of Dallas: Michigan State vs. Tulsa
Rose: Oregon vs. Michigan
Sugar: Texas A&M vs. Louisville
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Orange: Miami vs. Ohio State
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. LSU
BBVA Compass: Vanderbilt vs. Houston
GoDaddy: Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
BCS Championship: Stanford vs. Alabama

Added:
Minnesota
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Wyoming
Georgia Tech
San Jose State
Buffalo

Dropped:
Colorado State
New Mexico
Louisiana Tech
Temple
San Diego State
Syracuse
UAB

Well, I didn't tinker around a whole lot with my first edition of the BCS. I have to admit, my faith in Michigan is pretty shaken over the last two weeks, but I still think it's growing pains. If these struggles continue early in Big 10 play, I'll have to revise my statement. Gardner has been brutal and the reason these games have been so close is because of the dumb turnovers. Anyway....Boise drops out of the BCS, but Fresno will struggle somewhere on the road and drop one game, enough to leave them out of the BCS. This will open the door for Clemson, Florida State, or Oklahoma State to snap up an at-large. I have Clemson losing to South Carolina and being upset in the conference title game against Miami.

The bowl bubble is pretty murky at this point. I doubt Buffalo will get an at-large somewhere as it is likely that one of the lower-tier ACC teams will finish 6-6 which would start a domino effect and knock them out. I can't really pull the trigger on Pitt/Virginia/Syracuse as I don't have any of them better than 5-7, but all it would take is one upset. Nobody in C-USA has really separated themselves record-wise, so it's difficult to determine whether or not teams like Tulane, UAB, and North Texas can muster enough victories to get eligible. I'm taking Marshall to win the conference by default, but Tulsa and ECU could just as easily do it.

I wanted to pit Ball State and Wyoming against each other in the Potato Bowl, but I think Boise State has some more losses in them. A semi-lackluster season could allow them to stick around in Boise for the winter. I don't know if the Idaho Potato game has enough pull to make an attractive matchup like NIU/Boise or if they have to settle for something like Ball State and Wyoming. I haven't really decided whether or not NIU or Bowling Green will win the MAC, but the MAC is pretty flexible in where they send their champs. Toledo is a big draw for the game in Detroit.

The Pac-12 will be a complete logjam. I probably should admit that I'm wrong and accept UCLA as the best team in the South, but I'm sticking with Arizona State for the time being. Washington might end up with a slightly better conference record than Arizona, but I think the Sun Bowl takes RichRod's crew to have a team from the area.


I'll be back with an update in 4 weeks

[billybud]

Looking at Fresno State's remaining schedule...I think it is very possible for them to go undefeated.

Will they climb high enough in the rankings to be a BCS buster?

[donovan]

Good to hear from you. I think they may go undefeated. I think it takes that and some history to break the barrier. Don't agree with that, but seems to be the case.

[Eric]

I've got the Wyoming and San Jose State games circled on my calendar. Fresno State was a lot different of a team on the road than they were at home and, even with two decent home wins, they don't appear to be world-beaters at home. They get Hawaii, Idaho, and San Diego State on the road so there shouldn't be too much to be concerned about until November. Wyoming's passing offense is firing on all cylinders. They probably should have beaten Nebraska in Lincoln earlier this year, too. After that they have to take on the Mountain division champ, which looks like it'll either be Utah State, Wyoming, or Boise State.

I guess the smart money would be on Fresno, but I think they stub their toe once against the rest of the schedule.

[warrriorsfan808]

I remember years ago when playing a football game in Hawaii was seen as a PLAY-CATION get away for the opposing team. Well it looks as though we have come full circle.
Back in 05-06 Mack Brown and THE LONGHORNS actually backed out of a game out here and HAWAII was a team to worry about from the way I have seen them play this year we may not win one this year.

WOW!!!, After reading about some of the other scores: 72-0, 77-7, 76-0

Maybe Hawaii isn't as bad as I think or the teams we have played have not been as intent on running up the score as these other games.

[donovan]

Hawaii has vastly improved over the past years. Jones had a to do with it and Chow I think is a good coach that will have them improve. He is a good football mind. Frankly I am surprise he did not get the UCLA job.

[warrriorsfan808]

Hawaii has vastly improved over the past years. Jones had a to do with it and Chow I think is a good coach that will have them improve. He is a good football mind. Frankly I am surprise he did not get the UCLA job.

Donovan-- Thanks for your vote of confidence, this years UH team has not given me a lot to cheer about. I do wish the Board Of Regents at UH would all get Alzheimer's
then we can get people in who know what is involved in running a DIV. I school, and maybe get JUNE JONES back. However that would take too much money to get him away
from SMU.

[..fanatic]

It's quite unusual that Hawaii can now play defense, but has no offense. The d might give them a chance to make it interesting vs. Fresno State this week. Fresno has NO defense which I predict will be their downfall before the season is over.

[Cane from the Bend]

I do wish the Board Of Regents at UH would all get Alzheimer's then we can get people in who know what is involved in running a DIV. I school, and maybe get JUNE JONES back. However that would take too much money to get him away from SMU.

Well, it may just be that neither Hawaii nor SMU will be Div. I too much longer from the looks of things.
The NCAA president, Mark Emmert brought up Changes are coming.

I'm in the process of updating a previous post about this topic, in the "Suspicions" thread.

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