Alabama, Oregon, meet Baylor and Florida State

[Eric]

I'm pretty much convinced at this point that there are four elite teams in the country and they are the ones listed in the title. I can't say I'm surprised at all that Clemson got slaughtered tonight. FSU is definitely in the same echelon as Alabama and Oregon as far as complete teams go. A great offensive line, solid running backs, athletic receivers, athletic defensive line, great cover guys, and Heisman-caliber quarterbacks. It doesn't get much more complete than that. My only question is how voters are going to handle a situation where FSU goes undefeated with Bama and Oregon. Bama and Oregon have some work left ahead of them, but unless FSU has a complete WTF performance in their system, I can't see how Miami or Florida can beat these guys.

With Baylor, there are still question marks since they didn't obliterate an average Kansas State team. But you have to hand it to them that they are demolishing bad teams like crazy-good teams should. I think this team comes equipped with a great defense which is something that the doubters are overlooking. They outgained Iowa State by roughly 600 yards today, at least that was the +/- with about 3 minutes left in the game before Iowa State scored their first touchdown in junk time. This isn't a fluke since this is an extension of how Baylor closed out last season. It's obviously less iron-clad, but I would feel comfortable stacking these guys up against Oregon, FSU, and Bama. This is a group that can beat any team in the country on a given day.

If you had to get a prediction out of me on this, I think we might get three undefeated teams with Florida State being the odd man out. Which would be absolutely criminal, but since Oregon and Bama started the year ahead of them and did nothing to fall in the rankings, I think Florida State would have to be the team to get the shaft. I think Baylor will win the Big 12 at this point, but they might get knocked off once. It could come against Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State.

[Spence]

Not sure about Baylor, but Florida State is good. That defense is one that Mickey Andrews would make Mickey Andrews proud and they will only get better on the other side of the ball, and that is scary. Welcome back to the road to the championship Florida State.

[Duke1632]

You convinced me. Actually Baylor did too, because I think Iowa St. is a much better team than their record indicates based on the games I've seen this year. And Baylor did it to them, too.

That said, I do not see an undefeated Baylor being ranked in the existing polls above an undefeated Ohio State. Do you?

[Eric]

That's a good question. I have no idea what would happen there since I think people perceive the Big 12 to be a slightly better conference, but neither Baylor nor Ohio State played anybody of note OOC.

[Duke1632]

To be clear, I'm not saying I think Ohio State is better than Baylor, I just do not see Baylor being ranked higher than Ohio State in the polls, given their initial positions. But then, I come from an era where leapfrogging a team that wins almost never happened except under really outrageous occurrences, but today, it's much more common, so who knows?

Right now, it looks like Ohio State is the least likely to be beaten, or at least appears to have less dangerous tests ahead, even though as you say, they probably are not the same caliber of the other four teams you mention. However, my dream NC game would be Oregon vs. Alabama, with both of them undefeated.

[Spence]

To be clear, I'm not saying I think Ohio State is better than Baylor, I just do not see Baylor being ranked higher than Ohio State in the polls, given their initial positions. But then, I come from an era where leapfrogging a team that wins almost never happened except under really outrageous occurrences, but today, it's much more common, so who knows?

Right now, it looks like Ohio State is the least likely to be beaten, or at least appears to have less dangerous tests ahead, even though as you say, they probably are not the same caliber of the other four teams you mention. However, my dream NC game would be Oregon vs. Alabama, with both of them undefeated.

I wouldn't have a problem with Florida State or Alabama vs Oregon. I think they would be the most entertaining games. I also think it would be very hard to predict how they would play out. I wouldn't put Baylor in the same catagory as any of those teams. They are the three elite teams this year.

[Duke1632]

One thing that interests me is the CCR 125 SoS values:

1. Oregon = 42
2. Baylor = 40
3. Bama = 58
4. Fl. St. = 75
5. Oh. St. = 56

Of course that will change from week to week, but according to this metric, the popular perception that Baylor has an easy schedule (since they have so far) is not correct. Should all 5 teams win out, then (at least based on this weeks' value), Baylor will by then have played the toughest schedule and Florida State the easiest. That is a bit contrary to expectation.

[Spence]

One thing that interests me is the CCR 125 SoS values:

1. Oregon = 42
2. Baylor = 40
3. Bama = 58
4. Fl. St. = 75
5. Oh. St. = 56

Of course that will change from week to week, but according to this metric, the popular perception that Baylor has an easy schedule (since they have so far) is not correct. Should all 5 teams win out, then (at least based on this weeks' value), Baylor will by then have played the toughest schedule and Florida State the easiest. That is a bit contrary to expectation.

But even if Florida State is the easiest if you know how to break down a defense you know that Florida State is going to have a chance to win against anyone. SOS is a component to be considered. How they play within that schedule is important too. I watch defenses to determine how I pick teams. Defense is usually consistent. If the dline gets pushed around you can count on that team, They are going to be burned at some point. I believe a great defense will alway beat a great offense.

[Old Ducker]

Alabama, although occasionally unimpressive, clearly deserves the top spot until they are dethroned. I am not sure that Oregon is more deserving of the second spot ahead of an obviously very good Florida State team.

[Spence]

Alabama, although occasionally unimpressive, clearly deserves the top spot until they are dethroned. I am not sure that Oregon is more deserving of the second spot ahead of an obviously very good Florida State team.

It is very close. Oregon appears to be better than both to me, but Bama is Bama and Florida State looked like world beaters last night. They have a juggarnaut as well.

[Eric]

I'm just learning not to get ahead of myself. Last year everybody was ready to crown Alabama and Oregon as the national title participants, until Texas A&M spoiled Bama's perfect season. Then it was Kansas State and Oregon. And they lost their tickets on the same evening.

[Spence]

I'm just learning not to get ahead of myself. Last year everybody was ready to crown Alabama and Oregon as the national title participants, until Texas A&M spoiled Bama's perfect season. Then it was Kansas State and Oregon. And they lost their tickets on the same evening.

True.

[Duke1632]

But even if Florida State is the easiest if you know how to break down a defense you know that Florida State is going to have a chance to win against anyone. SOS is a component to be considered. How they play within that schedule is important too. I watch defenses to determine how I pick teams. Defense is usually consistent. If the dline gets pushed around you can count on that team, They are going to be burned at some point. I believe a great defense will alway beat a great offense.

I agree with you on all accounts. Yet, the intent was to focus on Baylor because I think most people would be surprised to learn at the end of the season that Baylor played the most difficult schedule (if the current numbers hold out till then) from among the currently ranked BCS top four, particularly given that SoS is often cited against them as a reason why they do not deserve to be considered with the elites. Clearly doesn't mean Baylor is better than FSU, but it does mean that the general perception just isn't (or at least won't be) true.

[Spence]

It also means Baylor will rise up through the rankings as long as they win. They probably started too low to get to the championship game. That is an argument for another day. This system isn't fair to new comers. Baylor has to beat someone big during the CCG and win the bowl game. Then have enough depth to be great next year. Most would say that isn't fair, I can't disagree.

[Derek]

Hypothetical question.

Since the voters pick the NC and the computers (for this last year) are a rubber stamp....If Bama or Oregon stumble, will the voters send Baylor, FSU, or OSU (providing they don't stumble)??

Discuss...