Potential Upset

[Duke1632]

A buddy of mine is always predicting upsets, so when I spoke with him today I asked his upset picks this week, and he gave me 3. Perhaps the biggest one was Arizona @ California.

What do you guys think?

[Eric]

I was borderline on putting it on the pick'em this week, but it was contingent on how they played against Washington in the second half. As it turns out, they got hammered by Bishop Sankey. I think Cal could score against Arizona, but Cal has one of the worst secondaries. Arizona isn't a huge passing team, but they can go over the top for big plays. Cal is also one of the worst-tackling defenses in the country, so I don't think they can keep Carey at bay. Sankey went over 200 and I expect Carey to do the same.

My best guess: Arizona 53, Cal 30

[Eric]

Personally I don't see too many upsets this week. Colorado State can beat Boise State since they get them away from the Smurf Turf. The Rams have discovered a really good running game and Boise's passing game might be thrown out of whack this week. I'm still going Boise.

I think Kentucky will beat Alabama State easily, but it might be close for a half. Kentucky has kind of forgotten how to win so I expect it to be a low-scoring first half with the Kentucky fans scratching their heads. Ultimately they should win by at least 20.

Temple has been starting P.J. Walker at QB. He's a freshman (I believe a true one) and he's been a godsend for that program the way their season started. If he had started against Fordham or Idaho, they would have won easily. It was one of those deals where the new head coach didn't want to come in right away and upset the apple cart. He had to give the veteran the chance to hang on to the job, but Walker lit up Army and SMU pretty well. Rutgers is a little schizo on offense with the passing game sometimes really looking effective and at other times looking absolutely dreadful. It's all due to Gary Nova having sloppy footwork and not understanding coverages well enough (in my opinion). The Knights have one of the lowest ranked passing defenses in the country so Temple will score. The only question is which Rutgers passing game decides to show up. Put me on the record picking Rutgers, but I think this is a coinflip.

I wanted to get Georgia State on the Pick'em this week. Not sure if they'll go the distance against Western Kentucky, but they've been more competitive in Sun Belt play than they were against FCS competition. They seem to be progressing on a weekly basis. WKU already has a headscratcher on their resume by not beating South Alabama. The turnover bug keeps biting this team so that could hurt them on the road.

So I guess what I'm saying is keep these games in mind, but I'm not man enough to call any of these

[Duke1632]

Eric, you should write a column somewhere. I'd read it. You've convinced me at every step, and actually succinctly answered some of my questions about Rutgers with conclusions I was unable to reach, but just seems right now in hindsight. I sure cannot fault your Arizona/Cal prediction, but I like the fact that you put it out there, so you can receive any deserved accolades.

[Spence]

Eric knows more about more teams in CFB than anyone I have ever known.

[Eric]

Come on now, don't make me blush

The longer you post on the board, the more you'll realize I'm big on predictions, bad on accuracy . And by "bad", I mean about as good as random chance

[Spence]

Come on now, don't make me blush

The longer you post on the board, the more you'll realize I'm big on predictions, bad on accuracy . And by "bad", I mean about as good as random chance

Maybe, but you have a working knowledge of the more abstract teams in CFB regardless of conference or division. Most of us know about the top 25, or at least top ten. Most know the regional conference and regional teams. Very few know as much as you about teams from outside our regions that aren't nationally known teams. I have always found that to be quite amazing. Especially for a Michigan fan.

[donovan]

Eric follows teams that the player's mothers don't even care about.

[Spence]

Eric follows teams that the player's mothers don't even care about.

That is a very good discription. I don't know a tenth as much about some of the teams that he knows.

[RazorHawk]

I think the Big Ten schedule this weekend, sans Purdue vs Ohio St, every game could produce an upset. I think Michigan will beat Sparty as my upset pick as the Wolverines are a 4 1/2 pt dog. Of course Eric, might proclaim Mich St winning to be an upset.

Unfortunately in our pickem to find games that have small spread differentials, it requires picking games with teams like Idaho, Idaho St, Middle Tenn, Texas St, Georgia St, MAC schools and a bunch of teams that few follow and many are not televised.

[Duke1632]

I think the Big Ten schedule this weekend, sans Purdue vs Ohio St, every game could produce an upset.

Now that you mention it, I'm inclined to agree. I could see Iowa surprising Wisconsin a bit if their run defense looks more like it did earlier in the year, before the last few games. But then, Wisconsin is just so powerful on both sides of the ball, so much would need to go right for Iowa. I could also see Northwestern beating Nebraska. Both teams have shortlived performances that demonstrate they are excellent, even if these periods rarely last more than a half. In fact, I would have picked Northwestern this week if not for Nebraska's traditional home field advantage. For Minn vs. IU, I already picked Minnesota for the upset. And, as you say, UofM vs. MSU will not shock me no matter what happens, since I have no good feel for how this could turn out, all across the spectrum...close game or blowout in a win for either one.

[Eric]

Of course Eric, might proclaim Mich St winning to be an upset.

Trust me, I wouldn't

Michigan State is favored and rightly so. Homefield advantage plus a defense to speak of means they probably have an edge. Michigan is all over the place this year. Some plays they look great offensively and others they make awful turnovers. Some defensive plays they do their job and others they can't seal a deal and it goes for a huge touchdown. I have no idea what to expect and I don't know if it comes from the coaching staff or if the depth just isn't there. I would be surprised if Michigan pulls this out. In my rankings I had to go Michigan-Notre Dame-MSU in order to be somewhat consistent, but I think Michigan State is playing the best out of those three teams as of right now.

I know a lot of State fans personally since I live closer to MSU than Michigan, so I'm preparing for a long week

[Duke1632]

It looks like my buddy wasn't right, but he can take solace in the fact that he beat the spread, as Cal did give Arizona a scare. Also looks like RazorHawk's forecasts were very on target (except Mich), as most of the B1G games held surprises for the favored team. Iowa looked great the first half, but what is the deal there? That seems to have been plaguing them all year--great first half, then it seems things start to get shaky...is it that the defense gets worn out (which might be a function of offense not holding the ball long enough)?

Also, Eric was right on target with the Temple/Rutgers game. It was a coin toss, even though I thought Rutgers would win handily.

[Eric]

The end of the Rutgers/Temple game was crazy. Temple came back to take the lead and Nova tossed up a 30 yard bomb to the endzone on 4th and 10ish and Caroo hauled it in for the victory with under a minute left on the clock. Wild finish there.

I watched quite a bit of the Cal/Zona game and Rodriguez needed to do more to get Carey into space. For whatever reason, Cal was clogging a lot of the running lanes inside. Speed options killed Cal for the most part yet they keep smashing away up the middle. Denker isn't a great passer either so they were limited downfield for most of the game. It was closer than I thought.

Bama State and Kentucky didn't go as expected since Kentucky dominated from the get-go. I thought Kentucky would be so used to losing that they wouldn't know how to handle an inferior opponent at first

I also had no idea where Boise State's passing game came from. I knew Colorado State was a very mediocre team, but Hedrick was chucking the ball all over the place and they threw it with ease. I thought they had issues after the BYU game, but maybe they're onto something.