Northern Illinois and Fresno State
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Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
NO...it doesn't make you right ....after Sagarin is linked...by when the first BCS ranking hits and Sagarin is effective.
Unlike Colley..who seems heavily influenced throughout by the last year's performance.
The problem with computers is that their mechanics are not transparent...we really do not know what they are doing.
When there are 115 systems and the top 5 teams are ranked fairly consistently, that tells me that they have some commonality of method.
CCR does something different. Their results seem to speak to less weight on SOS...less "value" if you will, to a win.
But we don't know....the specifics are closely held.
Unlike Colley..who seems heavily influenced throughout by the last year's performance.
The problem with computers is that their mechanics are not transparent...we really do not know what they are doing.
When there are 115 systems and the top 5 teams are ranked fairly consistently, that tells me that they have some commonality of method.
CCR does something different. Their results seem to speak to less weight on SOS...less "value" if you will, to a win.
But we don't know....the specifics are closely held.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
FSU is ranked 5th on CCR, but the actual numbers are extremely close between 2-5, so it's probably not so much of an "outlier" as it seems at a glance.
The athletic team of my geographic region is superior to the team from your geographic region.
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
huh? If almost all other 115 systems have FSU as #1..a couple of #2's and 3s...a 5 is a huge difference in methodology.
You seem to think that a just a few spaces off does not make you an outlier...what makes you an outlier is being THE ONLY system that ranks beyond a 3....
And to be 20 places off of the average for Fresno and NIU only adds to that.
You seem to think that a just a few spaces off does not make you an outlier...what makes you an outlier is being THE ONLY system that ranks beyond a 3....
And to be 20 places off of the average for Fresno and NIU only adds to that.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”
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Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
billybud wrote:NO...it doesn't make you right ....after Sagarin is linked...by when the first BCS ranking hits and Sagarin is effective.
Unlike Colley..who seems heavily influenced throughout by the last year's performance.
The problem with computers is that their mechanics are not transparent...we really do not know what they are doing.
When there are 115 systems and the top 5 teams are ranked fairly consistently, that tells me that they have some commonality of method.
CCR does something different. Their results seem to speak to less weight on SOS...less "value" if you will, to a win.
But we don't know....the specifics are closely held.
I don't know how CCR works. I'm not comparing them to Sagarin or anyone else. I'm not arguing that Sagarin isn't effective, as I really have not looked at them. But whether or not he disregarrds them after five games, Sagarin does use past performance to start. If he thinks his algorythm isn't effective until five games have been played then he shouldn't put out his first ranking until after five games. What would be the point of putting out a ranking for five weeks that you believe is flawed?
Also, just because 115 systems run a similar algorythm, doesn't make it a correct algorythm. For years intelligent people worked under the assumption the earth was flat. They probably used same argument to prove the guy who said it was round was nuts. I think if they should just eliminate all the rankings and make all conference winners play. I think if CFB is going to have a playoff they should quit letting any subjective influence into it. Kind of like the old days when you didn't win your conference you didn't go to a bowl at all.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
Nobody's algorithmns are effective until enough games are played to lionk results...Not CCR, Not Colley...nobody.
But there is demand to know.
But there is demand to know.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
LOL...yeah can hit a 120-1 flyer in the derby sometimes too...
But generally the guy picking, time after time, the 120-1 horse to win will be a loser.
But generally the guy picking, time after time, the 120-1 horse to win will be a loser.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”
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Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
billybud wrote:Nobody's algorithmns are effective until enough games are played to lionk results...Not CCR, Not Colley...nobody.
But there is demand to know.
I agree. But demand to know what? The only reason to put them out is to stir up interest and add to the spin.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain
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Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
billybud wrote:LOL...yeah can hit a 120-1 flyer in the derby sometimes too...
But generally the guy picking, time after time, the 120-1 horse to win will be a loser.
But that isn't the analogy. If the guy who picks the 120-1 horse knows something everyone else does not; would be the analogy. But you are right, most often the known favorites are going to be the winner. We agree on that.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
The guy whose system keeps picking the outlier will lose.
A sharpy who could do it would be a multi millionaire. That is why the Vegas line is a great predictor of the straight up winner. We humans can decipher the strength equation and bet accordingly.
The odds on a team that is a 7.5 to 10 point Vegas dog winning outright, are about 21% (vs a dog of 3 points that has a 48% probabilty of winning).
Once you get up to 14.5 point plus dogs...the outright win percentage is minimal (13.16%).
Now I'd bet the holy hell against CCR's figure...Although he has Mizzou and Fresno about equal in power, I'd take Mizzou. CCR would have NIU favored over Miami, Texas A&M, Michigan State and LSU...I'd bet against NIU in a heartbeat.
A sharpy who could do it would be a multi millionaire. That is why the Vegas line is a great predictor of the straight up winner. We humans can decipher the strength equation and bet accordingly.
The odds on a team that is a 7.5 to 10 point Vegas dog winning outright, are about 21% (vs a dog of 3 points that has a 48% probabilty of winning).
Once you get up to 14.5 point plus dogs...the outright win percentage is minimal (13.16%).
Now I'd bet the holy hell against CCR's figure...Although he has Mizzou and Fresno about equal in power, I'd take Mizzou. CCR would have NIU favored over Miami, Texas A&M, Michigan State and LSU...I'd bet against NIU in a heartbeat.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
If you are interested in lines and how they stand up with actual straight up winner results...Phil Steele ran the data...
http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html
http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html
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Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
Trust me, I have been to Vegas and it is obvious that they only lose when people don't play.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
billybud wrote:huh? If almost all other 115 systems have FSU as #1..a couple of #2's and 3s...a 5 is a huge difference in methodology.
You seem to think that a just a few spaces off does not make you an outlier...what makes you an outlier is being THE ONLY system that ranks beyond a 3....
And to be 20 places off of the average for Fresno and NIU only adds to that.
That perspective does not make as much sense to me. CCR has FSU within 3.4% of the top spot. That does not appear to justify the term outlier for an argument that FSU ought to be ranked at or near the top because all other systems have them at or near the top. Particularly since it is possible that other systems ranking them at #2 or #3 might even exceed that differential, even if there are no other teams in between. The most salient difference does not appear to have anything to do with FSU, but rather with how CCR ranks OSU and Baylor. If those two teams were not there, then FSU would be #3, even with the same 3.4% differential determined in the same way. But whether or not OSU and Baylor are in the picture is irrelevant to a question of whether FSU is close to the top or an outlier in that category.
**3.4% is virtually certain to be within any reasonable margin of error. And being within the margin of error is statistically the exact opposite of an outlier.
The athletic team of my geographic region is superior to the team from your geographic region.
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
billybud wrote:If you are interested in lines and how they stand up with actual straight up winner results...Phil Steele ran the data...
http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html
I was looking for something just like that the other day. Thanks for the link. Do you happen to recall a stat where all that's combined? As in the aggregate for all spreads in which the underdog wins straight up. If not, I could work it out by hand easily enough with his data, but thought I'd ask.
The athletic team of my geographic region is superior to the team from your geographic region.
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
billybud wrote:Now I'd bet the holy hell against CCR's figure...Although he has Mizzou and Fresno about equal in power, I'd take Mizzou. CCR would have NIU favored over Miami, Texas A&M, Michigan State and LSU...I'd bet against NIU in a heartbeat.
Actually, in terms of power, Mizzou and Fresno are not at all equal: Mizzou: 80.61; Fresno: 73.99. Their ranks (but not power) are nearly identical, but that's because "rank is a combination of power and won-loss record" and Mizzou has a loss that Fresno doesn't.
Therefore, I would expect that CCR would not pick Fresno over Mizzou, but will someone verify that?
In fact, is that how CCR picks? Based on a direct comparison of either "power" or "rank"? I would think not because wouldn't there be Home-Away adjustments, etc.?
The athletic team of my geographic region is superior to the team from your geographic region.
Re: Northern Illinois and Fresno State
I follow college football pretty closely and betting as well.
Duke...3.5% doesn't matter. When the majority of 115 systems have a team ranked #1...and your system drops them down to #5...it is a statistical outlier of the highest order. How about looking at it on a Bell curve of rankings...the CCR would be out at the extreme edge of the bell curve.
And in an endeavor where one place counts for so very much...a two place difference is huge....
Duke...3.5% doesn't matter. When the majority of 115 systems have a team ranked #1...and your system drops them down to #5...it is a statistical outlier of the highest order. How about looking at it on a Bell curve of rankings...the CCR would be out at the extreme edge of the bell curve.
And in an endeavor where one place counts for so very much...a two place difference is huge....
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”
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