Eric's 100% Inaccurate Bowl Projections: Week 12

[Eric]

With some surprising results, I had to completely re-do these. Remember, I'm only doing this to keep my word about the every-four-weeks thing. None of us know how on Earth this will pan out . Feel free to disregard

New Mexico: Oregon State vs. UNLV
Las Vegas: Boise State vs. USC
Idaho Potato: Ball State vs. Washington State*
New Orleans: UL Lafayette vs. Tulane
Beef O’Brady’s: Middle Tennessee vs. Pitt*
Hawaii: Utah State vs. North Texas
Little Caesar’s Pizza: Northern Illinois vs. Syracuse*
Poinsettia: San Diego State vs. Arizona*
Military: Maryland vs. ECU
Texas: Iowa vs. Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger: Washington vs. BYU
Buffalo Wild Wings: Kansas State vs. Michigan
Pinstripe: Notre Dame* vs. Rutgers
Belk: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Russell Athletic: Miami vs. Louisville
Armed Forces: Colorado State vs. Navy
Music City: North Carolina vs. Ole Miss
Alamo: Arizona State vs. Texas
Holiday: Stanford vs. Oklahoma
Sun: UCLA vs. Virginia Tech
Independence: Boston College vs. Arkansas State*
Liberty: Vanderbilt vs. Marshall
Chick-fil-A: Duke vs. Georgia
Gator: Minnesota vs. LSU
Capital One: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Outback: Nebraska vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas: Rice vs. Texas State*
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta: Baylor vs. Fresno State
Orange: Clemson vs. Wisconsin
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
BBVA Compass: Houston vs. Toledo*
GoDaddy: Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State

Added:
San Diego State
Texas State
Washington State
Middle Tennessee
Boston College
Syracuse
North Carolina
Colorado State

Dropped:
Utah
Tulsa
Ohio
Northwestern
Wyoming
NC State
Tennessee
San Jose State

The BCS at-large scenario: Stanford's loss tonight opens the door wide for Wisconsin. It'll be tough to climb high enough in the rankings, but I think they'll get there barely. Two B1G teams bumps everyone up a notch and bumps the Pac-12 down a notch. Wazzu beats Utah to get eligible and goes to the Idaho Potato Bowl who won't fill their MWC bid (SJSU loses out). Arizona goes to Poinsettia to replace Army. The B1G loses its spot in the Heart of Dallas.

My Chick-fil-a Bowl gave me a little bit of pause. Would Duke really take that spot? I think there's a likelihood that they do. I have Duke winning out and getting slaughtered by Florida State, but their regular season will put them ahead of everyone else. The Chick-fil-a taking a 7-5 Georgia wouldn't be out of the question as it would likely insure a more competitive game than LSU (who could do a number on Duke) and would be a better draw than Ole Miss. Georgia will be 5-3 in SEC play so they will be in that mix with a team like LSU, who I have at 4-4. I could see this being Miami/LSU which would be more attractive, but they may like Duke as a bit of a novelty selection.

The ACC bowl games are in complete flux. I think North Carolina to Nashville and Maryland to DC would be pure travel picks over Syracuse and Boston College who will have equal records to UNC and better records in conference to Maryland. Boston College gets exiled to Shreveport to face either UL Monroe or Arkansas State, whichever the bowl execs feel would be better. Arkansas State would travel to northeast Louisiana and are a better team than Monroe, so that's how I went there.

I don't know how the bowls will treat an undefeated Northern Illinois. Do they get set up with the Sun Belt champion? Do they face a 6-6 at-large from the ACC in Detroit? Who knows. As it stands, they would have to give NIU some special treatment and I doubt that will be the case. I still feel like they could arrange a Boise/NIU matchup in Boise, but that's speculation on my part. I haven't heard any sorts of rumors about that. I went with the conservative prediction and had them in Detroit. Buffalo gets left out of the picture with an 8-4 record for 7-5 Texas State, who gets the homer pick in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Buffalo is not a very attractive at-large selection with their lack of history, distance from possible bowl slots, and questions about how well they would travel. One scenario could be where Notre Dame does not go to the Pinstripe Bowl. The Pinstripe Bowl could conceivably hook up Rutgers and Buffalo in what would be an interesting, almost intra-state matchup. Probably unlikely since they could probably nab one of those northeastern ACC at-larges.

The only teams seriously left on the bowl-eligibility bubble are as follows: SMU, Pitt, Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, San Jose State, UNLV, Central Michigan, Troy, Washington State, Mississippi State, and UL Monroe. As it stands, most of these teams wouldn't make it in anyway if they did get to six wins considering there figures to be quite a surplus of eligible teams. I think SMU has a legit shot at getting to 6-6 which would require either a win against Houston or UCF. I feel a defeat of Houston in Houston is a very real possibility and they will push UCF to the brink. I think they lose both in close fashion which ends their season 5-7. FAU could easily get there, but they wouldn't be much of a draw. They could get the Beef O'Brady's over a more deserving Middle Tennessee, sending MTSU into the at-large pool, but I think an upset from New Mexico State will squash any hopes of that. San Jose State could easily beat Navy at home, but I like Navy there. CMU has no chance whatsoever, but FWIW, they do get eligible. Troy doesn't make it. Mississippi State needs to beat both Arkansas and Ole Miss, not happening. Tennessee needs a win over Vandy and with their QB situation being in the shape it is, I highly doubt that happens. UNLV will get there with a split against San Diego State and Air Force for the first time in what feels like forever.

[armchairqb]

CMU has a real shot of getting six wins; their remaining opponents are UMass and Eastern Michigan. Enos' job is on the line if he doesn't win out.

UTSA would get a bowl IF there was a bowl spot available; but I've already counted 73 teams that will likely be bowl eligible.

Ones that I think might not make it from your list: UNLV.

I believe Tennessee upsets Vandy this week and gets back on the list. I can't imagine SMU getting in, but I'm sure Rutgers gets in.

Louisiana vs. Tulane is right on target for the New Orleans Bowl.

Mississippi State actually still has a shot; the Egg Bowl vs. Ole Miss is a big deal in the state of Mississippi. The game happens to be at Mississippi State this year and with a healthy Dak Prescott the Bulldogs could win this one.

That Auburn-UCF prediction would be a great matchup in the Sugar Bowl.

[Eric]

I think Mississippi State has a chance. I haven't heard an update on Prescott and Russell got knocked out on their final drive against Alabama. I think their game on the road against Arkansas is a coin flip game and then you add on top of that a game where they'll be a sizable underdog on the road, and I can't say I like their chances too much.

I think Central can get to six, but they'd be the seventh MAC team on the totem pole under the obvious teams and then Buffalo and then Ohio. Eastern always plays their Michigan rivals close. I was always amazed at how they managed to beat Dan LeFevour twice . Well, I guess it wasn't his fault, it was the defense's

[Derek]

Peach: Ehh....I don't see Ga getting anything as good as the Peach bowl. (I refuse to call it the new name. ) I don't even want them to go, I want the fan base to get angry that so much talent was wasted.

Cotton: I do like the idea of a Big 12 reunion with Missouri and Okie State.

Fiesta: No one will watch if Baylor is put up against Fresno State. That would be a slaughter I think.

Gator: I think LSU would annihilate Minn.

Belk: THey have a Belk Bowl??????? WHy???

[Eric]

I could see the "Peach" ( ) Bowl opting for somebody other than Georgia, especially if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and goes 7-5. They might not want a dejected, disappointed fan base since they are one of the bigger non-BCS bowls. Georgia in SEC play though could have an equal or better record than Texas A&M and LSU, so I could see them being in contention for that spot. LSU was just there and A&M will be off the board, which I think could narrow it down to Ole Miss and Georgia.

[billybud]

Duke football fans, with Duke going to the Peach, would be raving. This would be the most exciting thing to happen to Duke football since Steve Spurrier was their coach.

Their fans will all would troop down to Atlanta...all 659 of them.

[Cane from the Bend]

Central Fl (a team, none of us Fantasy Conferencers picked) is still marching on, with their tail-whipping of Rutgers tonight.

The Sugar maybe within reach.

Rice went on to pull off an overtime win vs UAB, minutes ago (an exciting game if you had the chance to view it). We'll see if their Heart really can win their way into Dallas.

I know you have Miami playing Louisville in the Russell Athletic, but, unless they simply want a final showcase for Bridgewater, I'm not so sure they are interested in that match up --- of course, it would be Bridgewater's chance to play the team he decommitted from ... seeing as he'll be gone next year, when Louisville joins the ACC.

However, I think a higher profile game, could be Miami/Texas.

Both teams have had improvements turn into disappointment, hold, I believe, the same record @ present, and draw a bunch of TV revenue.

Interesting note: Baylor has not won a game @ Stillwater in the last 43 years ... I doubt that will change many peoples' opinions of the Baylor/Oklahoma St game this weekend ... but it does give you something to think about.

The Cowboys fan base will be out in full force for Baylor's visit. And we've all watched as a team lost, whom we believed shouldn't have.

This one will be worth paying attention to.

Alright, gotta go and watch the second half of the UNLV/Air Force game.
For those interested ... UNLV is winning 33-14 --- The Falcons are continuing their lack of performance they've become accustom to, this season.

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[Cane from the Bend]

Okay, so, with their win tonight, UNLV (6-5) is now Bowl Eligible for the first time in 10 years .

The Rebels play San Diego State (6-4) next week. The Aztecs have to face Boise State this Saturday(though it is a home game for San Diego).

If the Aztecs lose to the Broncos; November 30th could be a big game for San Diego & UNLV.

Both teams would be 6-5 going into the day, and, most likely, only one of the two would get selected for a Bowl --- that game will take place in Las Vegas.

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[Eric]

I think they'll both get in. In the projections I had, I didn't have the MWC filling all of their bowls, mostly due to Fresno State getting into the BCS. San Jose State though has a decent shot at getting eligible. They basically need a home win against Navy. I've got Navy in a tight one, but I'm not very committed to that prediction. If Fresno stumbles somewhere, then one of those teams would go into the at-large pool.

I did catch the UAB/Rice game. I thought UAB was going to pull that out at the end after their lineman went down. I heard a mic pick up someone saying that the guy's leg was broken. Fox never showed the replay, but the announcer said it was akin to the Kevin Ware injury in the NCAA tournament. I had a feeling that could spark them to a victory, but the execution in the red zone was non-existent and they had to settle for a FG. It was a game with a lot of twists and turns.

The UNLV game went basically how it should have. Air Force's run defense was bad and Cornett had a field day. Tell you what though, I wouldn't want to be a player in those conditions

[RazorHawk]

Interesting note: Baylor has not won a game @ Stillwater in the last 43 years ... I doubt that will change many peoples' opinions of the Baylor/Oklahoma St game this weekend ... but it does give you something to think about.

And Mississippi State has never won against Arkansas when playing in the state of Arkansas. The game Saturday is in Little Rock, so that streak may come to a halt. Also, Arkansas is one game away from their longest losing streak of all time, and they still have LSU remaining on the schedule after Miss St.

Some records are going to fall this weekend.

[Derek]

Here's a writers take on the SEC bowl match-ups.

I'd say this is the best Ga would deserve.

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2013/sec-bowl-projections-week-13/

I think Ole Miss and Michigan would be a good game.

[Eric]

Yeah I think with Aaron Murray out for the year, Georgia isn't a team that will be too high on the bowl radar even though they will finish 5-3 in SEC play. I think the Gator and Music City are likely destinations. I had LSU out of the Chick-fil-a with a loss to Texas A&M, but that never happened. They should be bound for the Cotton or Peach Bowls.

[donovan]

They did a poll in Corvallis to see if the Beavers get a bowl bid, will anyone travel...the resounding answer...NO.....they are fed up...five losses after a promising start. Riley may be safe for only half a season.