Eric's 90% Inaccurate Bowl Projections - Week 15

[Eric]

Well the MAC was more or less getting kicked out of the bowl game in Detroit (LC Pizza Bowl is dismantling and the Detroit Lions are going to run their own bowl game at Ford Field without the MAC) and the Sun Belt has been tired of getting passed over for bowl berths, so I thought it was good to see them take matters into their own hands in creating the new bowl games down the road. Especially with the additions of Idaho and NMSU for football only and then Georgia Southern and Appalachian State full-time (and they keep waiting on James Madison, Eastern Kentucky, and Missouri State to see if they want to make the jump), the Sun Belt had no choice but to create new avenues to get their teams into the postseason.

I'm not a huge fan of the dilution of the bowl season, but at this point of 35 bowls, there's no real going back. If 6-6 is good enough to get into a bowl game, having 9 teams get left out in the cold for programs that are basically interchangeable is kind of unfortunate for those teams. The way Ohio closed out their year, they should not really be in a bowl ahead of Toledo. For the record, Ohio is a veteran team I think they will show up against ECU, but Toledo should have gotten that bid. San Jose State got a raw deal as well, and the way the MWC postseason was shaping up, somebody was going to get the shaft. The Sun Belt saw 8-4 Western Kentucky get left out and 8-4 Middle Tennessee and 8-4 Troy have been left out over the last couple of seasons.

When there were 28 bowls, I remember 10-2 Northern Illinois getting left out of the postseason in 2003 which was crazy (they beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Maryland that year). That seemed too restrictive to me. Now we'll be at 39, which has also come with more additions into the FBS field. When we had 28, I believe there were 115 teams at this level, and when Charlotte, Georgia Southern, and Appalachian State move up, we'll have 129, so that does make a bit of a difference.

[donovan]

Everybody gets a blue ribbon....that has worked well for this country.

[Cane from the Bend]

I'm not a huge fan of the dilution of the bowl season, but at this point of 35 bowls, there's no real going back. If 6-6 is good enough to get into a bowl game, having 9 teams get left out in the cold for programs that are basically interchangeable is kind of unfortunate for those teams.

In Esse; the NCAA Basketball Tournament "Keep expanding --- they'll all buy into it"

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When there were 28 bowls, I remember 10-2 Northern Illinois getting left out of the postseason in 2003 which was crazy (they beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Maryland that year). That seemed too restrictive to me.

I've on more than one occasion brought this up in conversations.
I never really questioned the overall Bowl scheduled line up until then.

The two excuses given that season:

1. the MAC didn't have enough bowl tie-ins
2. Northern Illinois wasn't a recognizable proven commodity

With 28 Bowl games, they (1.) should have gotten somebody else's at large bid [@ 10-2] --- and (2.) they weren't pushing a BCS appearance, rather, a minor Bowl appearance [one way that helps a team to build its future stock value]

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Everybody gets a blue ribbon....that has worked well for this country.

There is some irony here {or maybe it's hypocrisy} wherein many SEC fans complain about that very thing; usually in regards to little league & other youth sports programs --- but, come time for NCAA Football; every SEC team should get some kind of pittance; and if not, the rest of the country needs to heed some kind of penance.

(however --- I would like to draw attention to the fans of SEC teams here within as members of this particular site --- they show genuine class, seem to be stand-up people, and do not tend to lean on that media propagated ideology --- even to the point, where they, themselves, may express temperaments of annoyance & frustration with the slant of their their common conference peers)

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[Cane from the Bend]

America wants Oregon/Bama and I think the Sugar Bowl would be making a mistake to pass up on that opportunity.

I don't know where you got this ... I think America wanted Alabama vs Oregon when they were projected #1 & #2; I also got the impression, that just many people wanted FSU in the title game against Alabama.

It felt as though a shift away from Oregon being BCS desirable, faded when the Ducks ran into Stanford.

The whole, Bama's Defense vs Oregon's Offense became not so interesting, since the Cardinal showed what can happen if a good defense was prepared.

Bama vs Oregon was something only the people who frequented Autzen Stadium wanted at that point; then Arizona happened.

Now I doubt even the residence of Eugene want to see that match up --- if for no better reason than, as Stanford proved, Arizona was able to suppress the Ducks Offense; and they also exposed a major weakness in Oregon's rushing Defense ... which is how Bama really likes to win games.

Basically, I believe America feels as though they have already seen what would happen if these two teams were to meet on the field.

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As for Oklahoma:

(a.) the BCS knows Oklahoma has a fan base that travels better than Oregon does
(b.) an argument was made for Oklahoma, by beating the projected Big XII champ
(c.) the Sugar Bowl is the SEC's; they hope to humiliate Stoops for his SEC comments

As for Alabama:

Nick Saban will not have to whip these guys into shape ... the Sugar Bowl committee has shown its homage to the old Roman Empire, and is throwing Oklahoma into the lion den ... Bama is going to be playing to prove themselves in this game; the Sooners are the sacrifice. --- The media is going to try to fill everyone's heads with your overview; "can Alabama really bounce back after having lost the chance to play for a 3rd National Title?" , "will Bama be able to shake off the affect of a last second loss to Arch Rival Auburn, and get up to play in this game against the Sooners?"... it will all be window dressing. --- The Tide are going to be as agitated as a hungry rattle snake. They are likely stewing right now, boiling over with anticipation; wishing that the game were tomorrow night. --- I don't think the Sooners stand much of a chance.

(where's Donovan with his favorite one liner when you need him never mind, I guess I'll just post it)

But then again; we play the games for a reason.

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[Eric]

Right, I understand the reasons for why the Sugar went in favor of Oklahoma. It's always better to get a surprised, excited fan base than it is to get one who was disappointed, and Oklahoma is obviously a lot closer to New Orleans than Oregon is. Oregon also didn't travel great to the Fiesta Bowl last year, so that undoubtedly factored into their decision.

I think Oregon's issues stemmed from a mixture of health and want-to. I don't think they were mentally prepared for Arizona and the Stanford game may have answered a few questions about the effectiveness of their offense. Everybody seems to think that Mariota was injured badly down the stretch and that was part of the reason they were less effective offensively. I think as far as excitement went, the comeback victory against Oregon State, as far as I could tell, got this team excited again. If they got a shot at Alabama, I'm of the opinion that they would be ready to go and the fan base would come down to New Orleans for that matchup, as its something they've wanted for the last five years. I think America would tune in, more than would tune in to watch Oklahoma. Oklahoma has been completely off of the radar all season long. They're a team that has gotten next to nothing as far as national attention goes and it mostly comes from their blowout losses to Texas and Baylor. They've had a few games in conference play where they haven't been all that impressive either, if you're talking about a potential BCS team.

I'm sure the committee who runs the Sugar might know more than I do about the economic benefits of choosing Oklahoma over Oregon though, I just think Oregon/Alabama would make for an infinitely more entertaining game. They would stand a much better chance against Alabama than Oklahoma does. This game is blowout central. I literally have almost zero doubt that Bama wins by less than 10; maybe a shred of doubt but still extremely confident that they win by 20. I think the line right now is at 11 for Alabama and if I were a gambling man, I would take that to the bank. Oklahoma will get steamrolled. I'd like to be wrong, but....No, not happening

[billybud]

These games, to me, seem doomed to be duds from the start...

1...Duke vs Texas A&M.....ugh....I know, I know...Duke "pushed" FSU as the Noles won by 38.....another wipe out for Duke.

2...Clemson-Ohio State...I have alreasy seen what happens to Clemson when they hit a defense that can pressure Boyd....as FSU and USCe could do.

3...UCF vs Baylor...yeah, Bortles can be nifty as a QB...But this game should be Baylor by 3 scores.

[Spence]

These games, to me, seem doomed to be duds from the start...

1...Duke vs Texas A&M.....ugh....I know, I know...Duke "pushed" FSU as the Noles won by 38.....another wipe out for Duke.

2...Clemson-Ohio State...I have alreasy seen what happens to Clemson when they hit a defense that can pressure Boyd....as FSU and USCe could do.

3...UCF vs Baylor...yeah, Bortles can be nifty as a QB...But this game should be Baylor by 3 scores.

I wish we had a defense.