Florida State v. Oregon

[billybud]

Mariota was awarded the Heisman and assigned sainthood all in one fell swoop.

The interwebz are full of snippets encouraging the newly minted saint to take down that dark and evil usurper.

Marcus will be marching forth, as if cloaked with the blood red cross, on a holy crusade to vanquish the heathen holders of the title.

ESPN is doing a great job...I think that they scripted this on a Hobbit movie..I'll have to see the Hobbit latest.."The Battle of the Five Armies"

Any chance that the script has the bad guys winning?

[Spence]

That just gives Florida State more bulletin board material to be used as motivation.

[billybud]

I think that I recognized that tune that the FSU band was rehearsing..."Sympathy for the devil".

[donovan]

You have it spot on. This was written in the bowels of Hollywood in a Bank of America backroom. The sad part is these are two young men, both with futures ahead of them. They both have done well and things they most likely regret. The minute they stop being moneymakers for those to whom sportsfans sold their souls, they will thrown into the abyss.

[donovan]

So as I am perusing the Rose Bowl game I came across this....The conclusion on the Tomahawk website is the ACC was better this year than the PAC 12.....I am sure I can find similar dribble for the Oregon Egotists...... As one who puts little stock in SOS, more having been slightly influenced by Mr. Billybud...I am thinking...The talk happens on Jan 2nd. Today I think FSU wins by 14........14-0 or maybe 94-80.....

http://www.tomahawknation.com/2014/12/19/7417405/florida-state-oregon-strength-schedule-fsu-rose-bowl

[billybud]

While I am not optimistic...I do think that FSU has a shot at beating Oregon...

The PAC 12 may be better than the ACC...but then again, maybe not.

Hard to tell when Oregon scores so many points...skews defensive rankings.

But...I guarantee that FSU will give a lot more fight than Arizona in the CCG...If the Ducks stop the running game like they did Zona's, the Noles will be in trouble with blitz's teeing off...but if not, the game could stay interesting.

[billybud]

I am starting to feel better about FSU's chances after returning to Tallahassee from the cabin.

My connections are saying some good things...

1...Marcus is the main threat...FSU will try to institute a "if he flies, he dies" defense. Attempt to limit his winning with his legs, as much as is possible. They think that the FSU defensive front will be able to play well enough to allow the linebackers more freedom (by not having to protect the middle as much). One rotating LB may key on the QB.

As I had thought, the front four will try to contain while pushing the pocket...no real crashing by the DE's. Some blitzes will be called but they are concerned about man to man match ups...if the blitz doesn't get there, the man coverage is vulnerable. If the FSU front can command a double team, expect a MLB blitz through the hole occasionally.

2...If this game is close (and it probably won't be), the kicker will be a weapon. Aguayo is 46-49 over his two year career and has never missed from over 50. I would not squirm if he has the last attempt to break a tie in the waning seconds. He has been money.

3...Oregon just lost their All American CB during practice...he is out for remaining games. FSU has noticed and is adjusting game planning. Rashad Greene (who would have been covered by the All American) will get more looks as first option.

[Spence]

I think stopping the run is the first line of defense against any team. Still Florida State must stop Mariota from running while getting pressure. That means the middle linebacker has a big job in front of him because he has to maintain his coverage and be there if Mariota breaks contain. If Florida State tries an all out blitz, they will get beat. That is the key to winning the game for Florida State. Then as long as the offense plays mistake free, they should be fine. I agree the kicker is money. I wish Ohio State had someone like him.

[donovan]

I will, under some convoluted reasoning, try and take Oregon's side, for the purpose of this discussion.

FSU's big advantage is they have been there, that stadium, that game and won the National Championship. Winston has not lost a college game...this can not be underrated...

This game will be determined by mistakes. If both teams play flawlessly, which could well happen...No idea who would win.

Turnovers, or the lack of, will be the key. Oregon has turned the ball over only 8 times this year, best in football. FSU has not done that well in this area.

Oregon's offense probably has an advantage over FSU's defense.
FSU's offense probably has an advantage over Oregon's defense.

So the team teams defense that steps ups and creates opportunities will win.

Oregon does not play as quickly as they did under Kelly. Quick, but not as quick. I think that is to their advantage.

Winston is probably the best QB in college football. (Forget the irrelevant Heisman)

Oregon needs to have a totally different game plan in the second half than the first. Winston thrives on seeing the first half play and compensating later on....hence all the late moment rallies...these are not by chance, but by Winston's savvy.

I think Oregon will cause turnovers and the game will go into OT and in the third OT, where kicking the extra point is not allowed, Oregon will win with a two point conversion.

[billybud]

Both Donovan and Spence make great observations...

Controlling the running game is key and, of course, the team that turns the ball over is at a real disadvantage.

I hope that, like the last game, FSU will play a turnover free game.

[Spence]

I agree with Donovan that Oregon is different than under Kelly. I think they are better this way. I think the key for Florida State winning will be to collapse the pocket without losing contain. Making Mariota beat you with his arm isn't foolproof, but you want the other Oregon skill guys to try and beat you. This can be done and it is the reason I think FSU wins. Throw that out the window though if Florida State has a turnover ridden firt half and spots Oregon 17+ points. If that happens don't expect the comeback, Oregon is too good offensively to spot that many points and lose.

Florida State has always been a team that plays better when the stakes are higher. If they stay true to that MO they will get it done, but this will be the toughest team they have played.

[billybud]

Winston may have a lot less on his mind....for this game.

The retired former Florida Supreme Court Judge who was brought in as a neutral party by FSU (with the approval of Winston's and accuser's attorneys) has completed his investigation in the Code of Conduct hearings.

Winston was cleared of all charges.."Former Florida Supreme Court judge Major Harding wrote in a letter to Winston that the evidence was "insufficient to satisfy the burden of proof." A prosecutor made a similar decision a year ago when he decided not to criminally charge Winston, citing a lack of evidence."

[donovan]

I would think that is a lot of relief.

[billybud]

"In sum, the preponderance of the evidence has not shown that you are responsible for any of the charged violations of the Code," Harding wrote.

[Spence]

I think he has shown the off the field stuff doesn't affect him. I don't think it will help or hurt his performance in this one.