Florida State v. Oregon

[donovan]

I will, under some convoluted reasoning, try and take Oregon's side, for the purpose of this discussion.

FSU's big advantage is they have been there, that stadium, that game and won the National Championship. Winston has not lost a college game...this can not be underrated...

This game will be determined by mistakes. If both teams play flawlessly, which could well happen...No idea who would win.

Turnovers, or the lack of, will be the key. Oregon has turned the ball over only 8 times this year, best in football. FSU has not done that well in this area.

Oregon's offense probably has an advantage over FSU's defense.
FSU's offense probably has an advantage over Oregon's defense.

So the team teams defense that steps ups and creates opportunities will win.

Oregon does not play as quickly as they did under Kelly. Quick, but not as quick. I think that is to their advantage.

Winston is probably the best QB in college football. (Forget the irrelevant Heisman)

Oregon needs to have a totally different game plan in the second half than the first. Winston thrives on seeing the first half play and compensating later on....hence all the late moment rallies...these are not by chance, but by Winston's savvy.

I think Oregon will cause turnovers and the game will go into OT and in the third OT, where kicking the extra point is not allowed, Oregon will win with a two point conversion.

FSU could reverse the score if the game was replayed. Mariota and Winston had almost equal records. Whether just a bad ball handling day for FSU receivers and runners or if they were caused by Oregon, I don't know. That was the game.

[Spence]

I fully expected Florida State to win this game. I didn't think Oregon was as good as they turned out to be. They are really good on both sides of the ball. I knew they were pretty good, just not dominating good. It doesn't look good for my team next week, but it will be fun for the week leading in.

[Eric]

Florida State lost their composure after the Winston fumble. If FSU converts there, it's a completely different game from then on. You can't give Oregon those extra possessions. This is not even mentioning the first quarter goal line stop and the missed field goal at the end of the half. FSU talentwise is in Oregon's league, but Oregon is by far the better team when it comes to taking care of the football, and it wasn't just in today's game, it's been all year. FSU has gotten in trouble because of their gift-wrapped possessions to the other team.

I don't think turnovers are necessarily worse than punting the ball away. Both results are bad because you're not scoring, but turnovers tend to be worse than 3-and-outs because of the field position involved. And if they happen in plus territory, it's bad for team morale. Both of these effects derailed FSU today, big-time.

[Spence]

They got caught up in a perfect storm. Same thing happened to Ohio State in 2006. Florida was a better team, but the way they dominated was the result of one mismatch on the defensive line. It made Ohio State look much worse than we were. Florida State made some mistakes early and Oregon smelled blood in the water with the T/O's and took full advantage. The same thing could have happened to Ohio State last night against Alabama. If Jones missed a couple of those 3rd and longs that kept the offense on the field, Bama would have rolled us. Ohio State just got that one play they needed every time they needed it.