Famous NCAA Dynasties

[mountainman]

Big WOW, ktffan. That's quite a revelation and would certainly bring into question the results these 'systems' are spitting out.

I suppose this would help explain why there is so much difference in the various polls and predictions. I would think, and would be hopeful, that folks would question how the results of any poll or predictions were arrived at before they took them as gospel.

[billybud]

Maybe its my experience as a long time Nole ticket holder that has influenced me.... I expect the Noles to be sorely tested as they play the Big Boyz of the Big Ten.

After hearing Big Ten fans wail on about their "smash mouth" football...I have been mildly surprised at FSU's experience...Went to Columbus in '81, watched a mediocre five loss Nole team smack ranked Ohio State down...I was surprised, particularly since Art Schliester was known as a big time QB. FSU went back the next year and won by double digits (17 points) in The Shoe.

Michigan State was ranked #8 when FSU went on the road and throttled them 30-3...kicked the crap out of them the next year, too, 30-7

Michigan in 1991, was the best Big Ten team...I never expected the Noles to set a scoring record in the Big House (51 points) against a Wolverine team that was undefeated in conference play.....FSU beat the Big Ten Champ in their house by 20 points.

Ohio State (in 1997) was, in most folks opinion, one of the best of the Big Ten (if they hadn't blown the Michigan game 20-14, they would have played in the Rose for the NC...their only losses were to #1 Michigan and then #1 Penn State by a total of 10 points ). That team had Winfield in the defensive backfield, and Andy Katzenmoyer at MLB..a strong team.
The Bucks played FSU in the Sugar Bowl.

FSU's D line continually collapsed the Buckeye O line, slamming down the QB for 6 sacks. The Buckeyes could only score one TD in the game and had to settle for FG's...Noles win going away...by 17.

Now it's 2005...FSU is slated to meet the Big Ten Champ Penn State in an Orange Bowl "mismatch". Penn State brings a senior laden powerful Big Ten Champ team with a shifty QB in Robinson. The Noles have been depleted due to injuries, they have a patched up offensive line with starters out, the all star cornerback has been out all season and freshmen are playing in the backfield. The all ACC linebacker and leading tackler has been suspended and 12 former starters are out.

The Noles do not have much of an offense but match Penn State in points...take em to OT, once again, and again, ... FSU is brutal..smashing into the offensive line, sacking Robinson 6 times, stuffing the run...although Penn Staete's offense has the ball for 9:00 minutes more than FSU....the FSU defense holds....a great, gritty game.... FSU, in one of their worst seasons, played close enough to have won against a 10-1 Big Ten Champion...

Stats are stats...I am a fan and am influenced by my "homerism" and my experience...my experience is that the Big ten hasn't been so fearful for the Noles....Penn State was good, but they were no Clemson.

[ktffan]

Big WOW, ktffan. That's quite a revelation and would certainly bring into question the results these 'systems' are spitting out. :shock:

I suppose this would help explain why there is so much difference in the various polls and predictions. I would think, and would be hopeful, that folks would question how the results of any poll or predictions were arrived at before they took them as gospel. :wink:

Opinion polls are a composite of opinions. While definately imperfect, they do reflect more than one opinion. The BCS mixes computers and humans and gets a composite of both. Not perfect, but hopefully they gloss over some imperfections. The opinion polls do better than you might think.

[ktffan]

Maybe its my experience as a long time Nole ticket holder that has influenced me.... I expect the Noles to be sorely tested as they play the Big Boyz of the Big Ten.

After hearing Big Ten fans wail on about their "smash mouth" football...I have been mildly surprised at FSU's experience...Went to Columbus in '81, watched a mediocre five loss Nole team smack ranked Ohio State down...I was surprised, particularly since Art Schliester was known as a big time QB. FSU went back the next year and won by double digits (17 points) in The Shoe.

Michigan State was ranked #8 when FSU went on the road and throttled them 30-3...kicked the crap out of them the next year, too, 30-7

Michigan in 1991, was the best Big Ten team...I never expected the Noles to set a scoring record in the Big House (51 points) against a Wolverine team that was undefeated in conference play.....FSU beat the Big Ten Champ in their house by 20 points.

Ohio State (in 1997) was, in most folks opinion, one of the best of the Big Ten (if they hadn't blown the Michigan game 20-14, they would have played in the Rose for the NC...their only losses were to #1 Michigan and then #1 Penn State by a total of 10 points ). That team had Winfield in the defensive backfield, and Andy Katzenmoyer at MLB..a strong team.
The Bucks played FSU in the Sugar Bowl.

FSU's D line continually collapsed the Buckeye O line, slamming down the QB for 6 sacks. The Buckeyes could only score one TD in the game and had to settle for FG's...Noles win going away...by 17.

Now it's 2005...FSU is slated to meet the Big Ten Champ Penn State in an Orange Bowl "mismatch". Penn State brings a senior laden powerful Big Ten Champ team with a shifty QB in Robinson. The Noles have been depleted due to injuries, they have a patched up offensive line with starters out, the all star cornerback has been out all season and freshmen are playing in the backfield. The all ACC linebacker and leading tackler has been suspended and 12 former starters are out.

The Noles do not have much of an offense but match Penn State in points...take em to OT, once again, and again, ... FSU is brutal..smashing into the offensive line, sacking Robinson 6 times, stuffing the run...although Penn Staete's offense has the ball for 9:00 minutes more than FSU....the FSU defense holds....a great, gritty game.... FSU, in one of their worst seasons, played close enough to have won against a 10-1 Big Ten Champion...

Stats are stats...I am a fan and am influenced by my "homerism" and my experience...my experience is that the Big ten hasn't been so fearful for the Noles....Penn State was good, but they were no Clemson.

While "stats are stats", none of this says anything about the ACC, only Florida State. I think we can figure that Florida State was a pretty good team, not that a conference was bad. I remind you that from 1992-2000, Florida State went 70-2 in the ACC, outscoring them by a 42.8 to 12.8 margin. Starting in 1981, as you did and going to 2000, Florida State went 7-1 against the Big Ten, outscoring them 32.3 to 16.5. If Florida State is the benchmark by which we measure conferences, the Big Ten may be bad, but the ACC sucks outright.

And that's what I mean by using selective stats. Your stats did absolutely nothing to support the claim your making that the ACC was better than the Big Ten. I, on the other hand, provided definate and comprehensive numbers showing the Big Ten won a bigger percentage against better teams.

[Spence]

After hearing Big Ten fans wail on about their "smash mouth" football...I have been mildly surprised at FSU's experience...Went to Columbus in '81, watched a mediocre five loss Nole team smack ranked Ohio State down...I was surprised, particularly since Art Schliester was known as a big time QB. FSU went back the next year and won by double digits (17 points) in The Shoe.

Unfortunately Art Schlichter wasn't known for just being a big time QB.

Ohio State's smash mouth style didn't do them in, it was Florida State's speed that took Ohio State down. The B-10 has been one of the last conferences to adjust to that. The B-10 used to recruit big bodies and didn't care at all about speed on either line. That Sugar Bowl game changed the philisophy of Ohio State about speed on the lines. We out weighed Florida State big time on the lines and they beat us all day.

The B-10 hasn't fully got up to speed in that regard. Wisconsin still recruits big and Michigan has just started to put some speed at LB and on the D-line.


With regard to the 'Noles this year, no one ever questioned their defense, it was their offense that was suspect. That really didn't change with the Penn State game. In that game you had two great defenses and two mediocre offenses. Personally I like defensive games, I thought that was the best game of the bowl season.

[mountainman]

So, ktffan ....... I'm surmising, so correct me if I'm wrong, what you are saying is:

That since college football is not a science, and therefore not quantifiable, trying to apply a mathematical formula would, at best, produce questionable results.

On the other hand, a human poll, along with the inherent traits of humans, would produce more accurate, or a least out perform, the mathematical approach.

Do you know of instances where this has been demonstrated?

I am also taking this as an endorsement of the BCS' approach of combining the two.

[ktffan]

So, ktffan ....... I'm surmising, so correct me if I'm wrong, what you are saying is:

You're wrong.

That since college football is not a science, and therefore not quantifiable, trying to apply a mathematical formula would, at best, produce questionable results.

Well, that's right.

On the other hand, a human poll, along with the inherent traits of humans, would produce more accurate, or a least out perform, the mathematical approach.

No.

Do you know of instances where this has been demonstrated?

I didn't say it had been.

I am also taking this as an endorsement of the BCS' approach of combining the two.

I really don't care, but the BCS system does offer varying opinions and approaches.

[Spence]

HUH?

[mountainman]

Ditto ....

Guess I must have missed some things.

[Derek]

Big WOW, ktffan. That's quite a revelation and would certainly bring into question the results these 'systems' are spitting out.

I suppose this would help explain why there is so much difference in the various polls and predictions. I would think, and would be hopeful, that folks would question how the results of any poll or predictions were arrived at before they took them as gospel.

Exactly....

[colorado_loves_football]

Ditto ....

Guess I must have missed some things.

This guy seems to like to argue a lot, that's about all I can figure out. I don't necessarily object to his style, other than that he's very opinionated, and seems to view his 'opinion' as the 'absolute' truth, which is clearly isn't.

I'ts only one way, to look at things, but it does at least give us an alternate viewpoint to consider.

Who says a computer can't make a comparitive analysis of teams, and put them in some kind of a 'categorical' summary? I don't necessarily care that you don't like how it's done, that's your right, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a way for a computer to arrange teams, fairly while utilizing pertinent information.

Anyway, I don't care to comment further on this for now. Suffice to say he's made me reassess a few of the things we argue about.

[billybud]

With regard to the 'Noles this year, no one ever questioned their defense, it was their offense that was suspect. That really didn't change with the Penn State game. In that game you had two great defenses and two mediocre offenses.

For an offense that just "mediocre"...PSU did put up some points...I guess they could have been better, but they did put up over 30 points in six conference games...

Penn State put up...

34 points on NW

44 points on Minnesota

63 points on Illinois

35 on Purdue

35 on Wisconsin

31 on Mich St...

[Spence]

34 points on NW

44 points on Minnesota

63 points on Illinois

35 on Purdue

35 on Wisconsin

31 on Mich St...

Exactly.

[billybud]

Penn State put up points on the weaker Big Ten teams but the Ohio State vs Penn State game was a 17-10 battle...

Ohio State also put up a lot of points on some of the same teams...

31 on Iowa

35 on Mich St

41 on Indiana

45 on Minnesota

40 on Illinois

48 on NW

When Ohio State or Penn State met a good defense...it was lower scoring....like OSU's 22 on Texas, 10 on PSU....

[Spence]

This guy seems to like to argue a lot, that's about all I can figure out. I don't necessarily object to his style, other than that he's very opinionated, and seems to view his 'opinion' as the 'absolute' truth, which is clearly isn't.

I'ts only one way, to look at things, but it does at least give us an alternate viewpoint to consider.

He is right a lot. I have checked his facts. Nothing wrong with being opinionated, we all are. I just didn't get the point behind that post or maybe he was in a hurry and didn't have time to go into detail as to what he meant. Anyway I didn't get it at all.

Who says a computer can't make a comparitive analysis of teams, and put them in some kind of a 'categorical' summary? I don't necessarily care that you don't like how it's done, that's your right, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a way for a computer to arrange teams, fairly while utilizing pertinent information.

Some computer polls are good some aren't. Depend on the guy feeding the computer the info and the formula used. Nothing is going to be 100% correct, none of us, none of the experts, and none of the computers. That is why we are still here arguing football in April.

I would think that the average football fan could pick at 50%, a fan who is pretty knowlegable should pick at around 56-60%(that has been my experience with the predictions game.

When it comes to the experts, I would say anything above 70% is outstanding. If you can pick at 70% over a period of years your good. If you placed bets with a bookie and won at a 70% clip, he would either start squeezing you on the spread or dump you all together.