Ok -v- Mizz

[Eric]

Oregon folds under offensive pressure. They don't like catch-up. I still think Oregon State will take them out (But next week's test against USC could do the trick since the last two and only two losses they had were only by a combined 3 points in two games). Boise State has plenty to worry about from Hawaii -- regardless of ranking, in-conference familiarity breeds danger. Its like a bad marriage: "Familiarity breeds contempt" -- so to speak.

If the game was played in Hawaii, the Warriors would have a 1% chance of winning that game. Because it's in Boise, I downgrade the possibility of an upset to .0001%

[Spence]

I'm not a poll voter.

[Spence]

Ohio State being home or in Wisconsin had nothing to do with the win. Ohio State has a side to side defense. They can shut down a spread team. They can't handle a straight ahead runner. They haven't been able to do that for years. Ohio State can't play smashmouth and Wisky is a smashmouth team. If that game would have been in the 'Shoe it would have played out the same way. Take a look at the recent history of Ohio State-Wisky games and you will find that home or away doesn't matter.

[Spence]

analysis of OOC games by AQ conferences is a waste of time. Most play 3/4's of their OOC games a home and most play two to three games they have a 90% chance of winnng. If Ohio State plays any of their OOC teams, except maybe Miami, they still win big. They would still be big favorites against all those teams. Home field may make a difference between evenly matched teams, but it has no bearing concerning teams that are big underdogs. Those teams are going to win no matter where they play. Ohio State would beat Eastern Michigan at Eastern Michigan, in the 'Shoe, or anywhere else in the world they played the game. Eastern Michigan doesn't have the athletes to beat Ohio State.

[RazorHawk]

I'm even questioning Auburn right now as well. How did they get away with a home schedule like the one they were gift-wrapped? Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, and South Carolina so far have all been at home. Auburn was really pushed on the road by Mississippi State and Kentucky.

Probably has something to do with last year they played Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia on the road. Clemson, they did not play last year, but my guess is that the last time they played Clemson, it was at their place. South Carolina replaced Georgia this year. They play Alabama on the road this year,,,,, you guessed it, they played Alabama at home last year.

I don't see it as getting away with anything, as this is the way it is done in almost every conference. Every now and then an aberration will happen where a team will play the same team back to back on the road, or at home.

Iowa had a very opportunistic schedule this year with, Mich St, Wisconsin and Ohio St all at home.

[Spence]

Conclusion: OSU appears to be very equally matched with Wisconsin, over these 10 seasons, with both Home and Road nearly equal, though more close games are played on the Road, suggesting a slight favoritism toward Home field advantage, though Home record is actually 1 win less, so that probably cancels out. The past 4 seasons, however, would appear to suggest that Home field is advantageous, though it is a smaller sample. The bottom line is that it looks inconsequential, but remember with more data, especially using the point spreads, it may be possible to see better results. Usually, though, if there were a very large difference it would jump out, so at least that doesn't seem to be happening.

What it means is that Wisconsin's system is a brand of football that Ohio State isn't good at defending. Ohio State has more talented players then Wisconsin - still they hold their own or hold a slight edge in the series.

Home/away doesn't matter that much. It is about X's and O's. It is about the football. You are looking for something that is relatively inconsequential. You can draw comparisons between players, coaching, and regional systems of football and that matters. If Kent State plays Ohio State 100 times 50 at Ohio stadium and 50 at Kent State, Ohio State would win 100 or close to 100 games. The win percentage would be in the high 90's. Talent, coaching, matchups, and even player attitude can all make a difference. Where they play doesn't matter that much. The reason the numbers are like they are is that teams loke Ohio State play more teams that have no chance of beating them, at home. When they play a Team like Texas, USC, or Miami, they usually are in a home and away situation and the talent levels of the teams are lots closer. You are wasting your time dealing peripheral data that doesn't mean anything.


Compare football players. Compare coaching ability. Compare how players execute. Compare systems. Those things matter. Comparing the where teams are playing is like doing a chemistry experiment in two different labs and blaming the labs if something is different. It doesn't matter.

[Derek]

I said for a while I wasn't convinced Oklahoma was good. After the game with Cincy, I knew they had chinks in their armour. I not convinced about Oregon either, but mostly based on last year, regardless, looks like they get their shot. It also looks like Auburn is making a case, which will make the rivalry game very intereseting.

I'm even questioning Auburn right now as well. How did they get away with a home schedule like the one they were gift-wrapped? Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, and South Carolina so far have all been at home. Auburn was really pushed on the road by Mississippi State and Kentucky.

And they get Georgia at home. That does not bode well for me.

THe one hope I do have is that Dr Lou, seemed to think that Georgia was playing the best in the SEC right now, and after saying that, the guy to his right laughed.....Whenever those pompus jerks start laughing at teams....I take that as a sign that an upset is about to happen.

[Brian Roastbeef]

Oregon folds under offensive pressure. They don't like catch-up. I still think Oregon State will take them out (But next week's test against USC could do the trick since the last two and only two losses they had were only by a combined 3 points in two games). Boise State has plenty to worry about from Hawaii -- regardless of ranking, in-conference familiarity breeds danger. Its like a bad marriage: "Familiarity breeds contempt" -- so to speak.

If the game was played in Hawaii, the Warriors would have a 1% chance of winning that game. Because it's in Boise, I downgrade the possibility of an upset to .0001%

The only question when it comes to Hawaii football, is how will they do ATS?

[RazorHawk]

If the game was played in Hawaii, the Warriors would have a 1% chance of winning that game. Because it's in Boise, I downgrade the possibility of an upset to .0001%

The only question when it comes to Hawaii football, is how will they do ATS?

Hawaii is currently 7-1 versus the spread. #2 in the country, only behind Utah.

http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input/nn ... nkings.htm

[WoVeU]

If the game was played in Hawaii, the Warriors would have a 1% chance of winning that game. Because it's in Boise, I downgrade the possibility of an upset to .0001%

The only question when it comes to Hawaii football, is how will they do ATS?

Hawaii is currently 7-1 versus the spread. #2 in the country, only behind Utah.

http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input/nn ... nkings.htm

Razor that seems to ring a bell. Isn't that kind of normal from them? (I think you have given this factoid in the past.)

[Brian Roastbeef]

They aren't usually quite this good ATS, but they've been a decent team to bet on for a while - particularly at home.

[Eric]

I've noticed something.

This year ESPN is using the BCS ranking to show the teams rank...they have almost always used either the AP or the USA Today poll.

Maybe I'm just not a fan of ESPN, but I think if the computers had Ok at 10, they would have used the human polls. Cynical? Yes.

Okay, I just noticed some tomfoolery with the rankings! In the "upcoming games" section, they said Auburn was #1 and then in the promotion of the Oregon/USC game they said Oregon was #1.

[Derek]

I've noticed something.

This year ESPN is using the BCS ranking to show the teams rank...they have almost always used either the AP or the USA Today poll.

Maybe I'm just not a fan of ESPN, but I think if the computers had Ok at 10, they would have used the human polls. Cynical? Yes.

Okay, I just noticed some tomfoolery with the rankings! In the "upcoming games" section, they said Auburn was #1 and then in the promotion of the Oregon/USC game they said Oregon was #1.

See....its what they do. I don't trust them, don't ask exactly why...cause I don't think I could tell you...but I do not.

[WoVeU]

I've noticed something.

This year ESPN is using the BCS ranking to show the teams rank...they have almost always used either the AP or the USA Today poll.

Maybe I'm just not a fan of ESPN, but I think if the computers had Ok at 10, they would have used the human polls. Cynical? Yes.

Okay, I just noticed some tomfoolery with the rankings! In the "upcoming games" section, they said Auburn was #1 and then in the promotion of the Oregon/USC game they said Oregon was #1.

Just like the rest of the world really. This car is #1 by J.D. Power. This car is #1 by Road and Track.

ESPN just applies this to the teams for them as part of their own branding. You can't say it isn't true. But I want to see how they tout 2 teams if one is ranked #20 in one poll and the other ranked #20 in the other (each teams highest ranking).