Oregon's Schedule

[Eric]

Isn't as good as Boise's so far.

From Fiutak:

Oregon is ranked No. 1 in both human polls, but it goes to show how insane the BCS rankings are that the computers aren’t on board. How can the Ducks be ranked eighth by the wires and chips … EIGHTH?!

Simple. Their schedule makes Boise State’s look like the SEC West.

Oregon has played the 81st toughest schedule in America. Boise State's slate is ranked 57th, Auburn's is third, Wisconsin's is 45th, TCU's is 67th, Michigan State's is 49th, and Missouri's is 13th. Out of the top 25 teams in the latest BCS rankings, only Utah (96th) has played an easier schedule.

Obviously that will change as the season progresses, and Oregon has looked great. But if we're going to be consistent here, I don't see how you can give them a comparative advantage over Boise State at this point in time. You can say they've passed the eye ball test, but they haven't beaten anybody besides Stanford. As a matter of fact, I would go as far as to say that Boise State has had the most impressive win between and the two.

And Fiutak also lays out the case of why Oregon will almost assuredly lose. California has been a world-beater at home, they face Oregon State in a rivalry at the end of the season, they do play Arizona at home but the Wildcats can hang in a shootout with the Ducks, and USC is USC and their offense is playing absolutely lights out while getting Oregon at home and also considering they get a chance to play spoiler in what is pretty much their 2010 bowl game.

Just thinking out loud

[GoBoilers]

SOS is subjective. If Oregon stays unbeaten I will put them 1 or 2.

[Spence]

Isn't as good as Boise's so far.

From Fiutak:

Oregon is ranked No. 1 in both human polls, but it goes to show how insane the BCS rankings are that the computers aren’t on board. How can the Ducks be ranked eighth by the wires and chips … EIGHTH?!

Simple. Their schedule makes Boise State’s look like the SEC West.

Oregon has played the 81st toughest schedule in America. Boise State's slate is ranked 57th, Auburn's is third, Wisconsin's is 45th, TCU's is 67th, Michigan State's is 49th, and Missouri's is 13th. Out of the top 25 teams in the latest BCS rankings, only Utah (96th) has played an easier schedule.

Obviously that will change as the season progresses, and Oregon has looked great. But if we're going to be consistent here, I don't see how you can give them a comparative advantage over Boise State at this point in time. You can say they've passed the eye ball test, but they haven't beaten anybody besides Stanford. As a matter of fact, I would go as far as to say that Boise State has had the most impressive win between and the two.

And Fiutak also lays out the case of why Oregon will almost assuredly lose. California has been a world-beater at home, they face Oregon State in a rivalry at the end of the season, they do play Arizona at home but the Wildcats can hang in a shootout with the Ducks, and USC is USC and their offense is playing absolutely lights out while getting Oregon at home and also considering they get a chance to play spoiler in what is pretty much their 2010 bowl game.

Just thinking out loud

I don't think Oregon is as good as Boise State. Just using last year's Rose as a frame of reference - Ohio State isn't much different now then they were last year, Oregon is a little different - not much. They are a good team, but not the dominating team they look to be. Just as Boise State isn't as dominating as they look to be. I still think Boise State is a better team. Just my opinion, but I think Boise State has more talent man to man than Oregon. I have to pay more attention to Auburn to really have an opinion.

[billybud]

SOS is all Auburn's way right now....Auburn has played and beaten 4 Top 30 teams (sagarin)...Boise = 1, Oregon = 2, Utah = 0

[GoBoilers]

SOS is all Auburn's way right now....Auburn has played and beaten 4 Top 30 teams (sagarin)...Boise = 1, Oregon = 2, Utah = 0

That's OK. Still gonna put Oregon 1st. Howvere, I have USC beatin them this Saturday.

[Eric]

SOS is all Auburn's way right now....Auburn has played and beaten 4 Top 30 teams (sagarin)...Boise = 1, Oregon = 2, Utah = 0

Actually Boise has 2 according to Sagarin. But I hate Sagarin's ranking system

Actually, they do only have one win in the top 30. But Virginia Tech is rated 31st. Big differential there

[WoVeU]

SOS is all Auburn's way right now....Auburn has played and beaten 4 Top 30 teams (sagarin)...Boise = 1, Oregon = 2, Utah = 0

That's OK. Still gonna put Oregon 1st. Howvere, I have USC beatin them this Saturday.

I got that same itch telling me it is Oregon's turn! "It's wabbit season...ur, I mean, duck season!

[Spence]

I don't know. SC has a ton of athletes, but they are a mess. L. Kiffin isn't a good coach. I think if him and his dad weren't a package deal, he would be home watching Sesame Street.

[Spence]

Why don't you try an test your system of rating a teams strength against Eric's weekly picks and see how well you do using only that system rating the strength's of teams. See if you can do better then 80% or even 70%. It would be a good way to test out your theory of rating the strength of teams.

[Spence]

I would think that would be the best way to test it out. Most people on this site pick around 50%. The winner is generally a little higher. CFP's computer picks around 80%. Of course upsets can happen, but I would bet not many. probably less than 10%. I would think the rest were just stronger teams that shouldn't have been underdogs. I think that Eric's game would be a perfect way to test it out. You should beat the crap out of us.

[Eric]

Why don't you try an test your system of rating a teams strength against Eric's weekly picks and see how well you do using only that system rating the strength's of teams. See if you can do better then 80% or even 70%. It would be a good way to test out your theory of rating the strength of teams.

Ok, good idea. Will look at that. Doing 20 games probably would balance out the upsets, because those always occur. Computer polls generally do predict around mid-70s for winners (no spread), though their sample includes a lot of games that are huge favorites, not just games with close or almost no spreads, and they are about 50-55ish% ATS.

Maybe to start, the undefeateds could be analyzed, since those are easier, and maybe a few teams with only 1 loss.

Computers pick 70% because they get the Miami/Duke, Boise State / Louisiana Tech type games. Many human pickers would also approach that mark if they also picked the gimmies.

[donovan]

At last, a recognition of why all of this prattle is just that....No one knows...for proprietary reasons, I suppose...how various SOS are determined. Some are static and some change for some reason known only to the programmer. We talk about computers and deity in the same breath when in fact SOS is the arbitrary factor in all of this. Personally I think human polls use SOS. Not sure what are criteria is, but we generally give credence to a win over perceived better teams than we would say...a team like..hmm.. Boise. (Oh..bad example...we wouldn't know that...ah...guessing how it might me is just as good.)

[WoVeU]

Massey has Michigan St. below both Boise and TCU by about 10-20 spots for SOS, while CCR has the opposite. The big secret may be how SOS is calculated, since that is really what makes a 10-2 record = 12-0 record ... by manipulating SOS modifiers, a computer (programmer) could effectively add or take away wins from a team, or group of teams. If one program only looked at opponents records, for example, Michigan St. would look pretty good...but, when you start looking at who those teams beat, it gets ugly, and even uglier when you see who those other teams beat...that's where creative SOS programs could really skew results, and no one would complain, since really no one knows what those programs do.

Any SOS algorithm that doesn't apply a good deal of indirect win analysis is not worth anything...it is just another ESPN Analyst without the $47 tie!

[Spence]

Massey has Michigan St. below both Boise and TCU by about 10-20 spots for SOS, while CCR has the opposite. The big secret may be how SOS is calculated, since that is really what makes a 10-2 record = 12-0 record ... by manipulating SOS modifiers, a computer (programmer) could effectively add or take away wins from a team, or group of teams. If one program only looked at opponents records, for example, Michigan St. would look pretty good...but, when you start looking at who those teams beat, it gets ugly, and even uglier when you see who those other teams beat...that's where creative SOS programs could really skew results, and no one would complain, since really no one knows what those programs do.

CCR doesn't follow BCS guidelines. It is why Mr. Congrove turned down being included in the BCS.

[silverfox]

Massey has Michigan St. below both Boise and TCU by about 10-20 spots for SOS, while CCR has the opposite. The big secret may be how SOS is calculated, since that is really what makes a 10-2 record = 12-0 record ... by manipulating SOS modifiers, a computer (programmer) could effectively add or take away wins from a team, or group of teams. If one program only looked at opponents records, for example, Michigan St. would look pretty good...but, when you start looking at who those teams beat, it gets ugly, and even uglier when you see who those other teams beat...that's where creative SOS programs could really skew results, and no one would complain, since really no one knows what those programs do.

CCR doesn't follow BCS guidelines. It is why Mr. Congrove turned down being included in the BCS.

BCS uses subtle manipulations of the formula used to calculate and manipulate poll results to the advantage and benefit of it's own membership. You can bet those calculations stongly favor BCS members because, after all, this entire system is built around their entire (closed) membership. Any association, whether it be the boy scouts, the homebuilders, the rifle, etc. has its own rules and when activities involve others outside said group they always, always dictate preferences for their own. After all, why would members stay members if there isn't a benefit? That is why it is the way it is.

I bet Mr. Congrove's system is more "neutral" rather than slanted which would be why he would not follow BCS guidelines.

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