CFP Bowl Pickem Standings

[RazorHawk]

We don't have a power ranking that is anywhere close to being accurate because you have to have comparable scheduling to be accurate.

So then, there really is no way to do this. Comparable scheduling could only be done by the elimination of all conferences and grouping in super-conferences. This IMO would be more detrimental than a playoff.

You could do it with just the OOC scheduling being changed, but it would take away all choice of OOC games by the schools.

I don't believe you could. How would you equal out the schedule with say SEC teams and Mtn West, Big East etc. There is so much difference in the actual strength of the teams within the conferences, that it could not be done. Maybe if the teams in the mid majors would play 4 NFL teams in non conference play and the Big 10, Pac 10, Big 12 and SEC would play all FCS teams in non conference play, then the overall strength of schedules might become close to being equal.

[Spence]

You don't have to equal out schedules. You just have to have enough common opponents to do a comparison. Say you are the #1 Big 10 team this year you play 2 #1 AQ teams and 2 #1 non AQ teams in you OOC schedule. The #2 B-10 team does the same with a different mix of conferences but the same format - 2 #2 AQ teams and 2 #2 non AQ teams and so on down the line. Then you have 48 games with equal teams in other conferences. The conference games then add in 8 more games with conference teams that would bring the common opponents to nearly every team in every conference or very close to that. The computers take over from there and they would be very good overall because they would have enough information on each team to compare. Then you rankings would be very accurate. You would have to sprinkle the OOC games over the whole course of the season to keep from getting bad numbers from a team that started bad and got lots better, but it would work.

It would cost teams, especially the big schools like Ohio State, more money to play under this kind of system, but I think the TV contract would pay the difference because you would add 240 very competitive games that CFB doesn't have today. I think the CFB would rival the NFL in TV ratings under this sort of system.

[RazorHawk]

But still does not address the balancing of complete SOS when comparing a non AQ conference to an AQ conference. Your suggestion of forcing the AQ conference teams to play top teams of other AQ conference would, if I understand what you are saying, would actually make a bigger gap of SOS between the AQ conferences and the non AQ conferences.

So, are you saying for instance, if Ohio St was Big 10#1 ranked, they might be schedule in OCC against #1 in SEC Auburn and #1 in Big 12 Oklahoma plus #1 From Sun Belt and #1 from Conf USA? and #2 teams would do similar and #3 teams down the line.

This would, in my mind, make a larger difference in SOS between the AQ and non AQ teams.

[Spence]

You have what I am saying correct. And yes it would create a large gap in SOS between not only non AQ and AQ teams, it would create a pretty good gap between the top and bottom of conference teams. It doesn't matter, though, because we are using the strength of schedule to create a power ranking that can accurately use SOS to rank teams. You will have all the teams playing their counterparts from other conferences and there will be enough games with all other conferences to have an accurate comparison. They try to do it now with SOS but they can't because their isn't enough of a power comparision between top teams against each other. You may have a top team from the B-10 playing a number 7 team from the ACC or and SEC top team playing the number 4 team from the MWC and then no other games to connect the conferences or rate the teams. That means there is too much randomness (if that is a word) to compare evenly. Even if Auburn and Ohio State played and Ohio State won, if they didn't have any other teams to draw a comparison it really doesn't tell you anything except on that day, in those conditions, Ohio State won a game. Nothing more. If Ohio State went on to play Oklahoma, TCU, and MIami (OH) and Auburn went on to play Virginia Tech, Boise State, and Miami (OH) you would start building a comparision. Add together the others and you have a really solid comparison between teams. If you sprinkle those games at different times of the season, you will keep teams that start slow and pick up from being wiped out early. You could also have a team that played a super tough schedule be able to lose a couple games - they almost certainally would lose a game or three - and be ranked number one. Also if you lose one from a less tough schedule you would be knocked out of consideration. It would completely be decided by an algorithm, but an algorithm with enough information to legitimately rank the teams.

The ranking results would still hack off some people because it would rub on them that a three loss team can play for a championship against a one loss team with two undefeated teams left at home. But if you can accurately rank them it doesn't matter it will just be chatter. This sort of ranking could also be able to seed a playoff if things would come to that.


The big fallacy about SOS is if you play a tougher schedule you are a better team and that isn't necessarily true. You should be given credit for playing a tough schedule, but the guy who didn't play as tough a schedule may be better. This system would rank teams against their schedule compared to other teams against their schedules and that is how SOS is legit.

[RazorHawk]

I can't disagree with any of that, now that I think I understand what you are saying. It sure would create more interesting games. I think it would really hurt the opportunity for teams in a non AQ conference to play on the big stage.

Oh, and I hope the Buckeyes go easy on the Hawkeyes tonight.

[Spence]

It would give the non AQ conferences a fair chance without being unfair to the AQ conference teams. I think you understand it fine.

People in these parts are thinking the Bucks go down tonight. They have been struggling for about two weeks.

[Spence]

Guess they were wrong. I don't watch much basketball until march.

[billybud]

Play offs...why watch until March?

[RazorHawk]

I now will start watching college basketball daily. Particularly if one of my two teams are playing.


I just thought about looking at the Basketball section of the board, but it is almost unreadable, with a thread started on every game that is being played.

[Spence]

Play offs...why watch until March?

Exactly.