UCLA and Nebraska

[promanmiller]

How can UCLA be ranked 13 spots below Nebraska after beating them last week?

[Dossenator]

First welcome to the board.

I think it is crazy but it is due to the stupid polls coming out before games are played.

[Dossenator]

Nebraska started season ranked and UCLA did not. Not right but how the system works.

[promanmiller]

Thanks for the welcome.

Clearly, the pre-season rankings were wrong, as they usually are in many cases. And one has to wonder about a system that does not take into real consideration clear hard facts. UCLA's SOS is even higher than Nebraska's (37 vs 41). Yeesh.

[billybud]

I think that early on, that it is about how the pollsters think that a team will do against their schedule...and some must have thought that Nebraska would do better on their schedule than would UCLA...

[Spence]

I think that early on, that it is about how the pollsters think that a team will do against their schedule...and some must have thought that Nebraska would do better on their schedule than would UCLA...

I think that is mostly correct. Some also has to do with how they finished last year and some is elite program bias. The polls generally work themselves out by the fifth week, but it is always hard to take if your team upsets a higher ranked team and then stays behind them in the polls. Especially if they "handle" them. Unless or until they can figure in an accurate way to measure the strength of a team - not just against their schedule, but in relation to all the other teams - you will continue to have situations like this. Even then, there will be instances where a stronger team gets beat by a weaker team. It happens. Not that Nebraska is stronger than UCLA. The Big 10 over all is bad. There is not one strong team in the conference.

[Brian Roastbeef]

Might be a worthy footnote to add that around here, we have UCLA ranked #21 after Week 2, while Nebraska is among the group of "others" outside the Top 25.

In that case, I believe a significant portion of the advantage to our polling is due to the fact that most of us are less likely to feel beholden to our preseason rankings. Nebraska was #18 in the preseason poll here, but when they got beat by UCLA many of us dropped them like a rock right out of the top 25 and brought UCLA in. Meanwhile in the Coaches poll, Nebraska fell from 14 to 24 and now back up to 22. Michigan sits #17, ahead of a probable second loss to Notre Dame... Knocking Arkansas out of the top 25 after losing to La-Monroe was some sort of historically big deal to the AP; for us it's just another week surveying the landscape.

Anyway, horn-tooting aside, I also think there could be some hesitance on UCLA because now that Nebraska is out of the way their schedule currently looks very backloaded leading to the comparative expectations game billybud and Spence have described. They've shown a powerhouse offense, but with Arizona looking stronger than expected against Okie St, the USC rivalry, and a strong Stanford team, the Bruins are going to have to work hard in November.

[billybud]

And...UCLA was 6-8 last year...Lsing to 7-6 Louisville in the bowl. NOt much to inspire confidence.

Nebraska was 9-4...

[WoVeU]

The polls right now are just pre-jockeying for the most part. The next poll will be the one where people put much thought to it, mostly feel right now. WHat they did last year, off season talk nad expectations, and Sports Center Highlights. Comparative data and field performance start to unmuddy the waters about now, but like Spence says about week 5 before the polls look respectable, week 7 and people only argue about a spot or 2 for the greater part.

[promanmiller]

This poll is certainly making less sense to me.

UCLA beats Nebraska by 6
Oregon State beats Wisconsin by 3
Oregon State beats UCLA by 7
Nebraska beats Wisconsin by 3

Nebraska is ranked 26 spots ahead of UCLA. Come on.

Patrick

[promanmiller]

And Nebraska is ranked 25 ahead of Oregon State. Looks like the poll doesn't sort itself in time but worsens.

How is this disparity explained, especially at nearly the middle of the season?

Patrick

[Vileborg]

I'm not sure what formulas CCR124 is using.

Our users poll is here:

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/cfpusers.php

I'm running a personal predictor poll and it has Nebraska 23rd and UCLA 24th. Oregon St. is 11th. The reason my predictor has Nebraska higher is because their offense and defense are performing better across the 5 game season. If they were to play again my prediction says that Nebraska would win by .36 points.

My Predictor Lines
Nebraska +3 OSU
UCLA -30 Cal

[donovan]

And Nebraska is ranked 25 ahead of Oregon State. Looks like the poll doesn't sort itself in time but worsens.

How is this disparity explained, especially at nearly the middle of the season?

Patrick

Welcome to the board that has yearly on going discussions about the polls and how they reflect....well, there you go...just what do they reflect.

I certainly agree with you that the polls do not make a lot of sense this time of year. My problem with polling is that most of them do not define what the specific poll's destination is. Is it to reward performance over the past 10 years and this season is a microcosm of that purpose? Is it a seerstone of how the teams will be ranked at the end of the year so the poll looks like it has some psuedo scientific prophetic value? Is it a manipulation of those that have a fincancial interest to insure that the final games played will be the highes revenue generators for those with the most to gain? Does the arbitrary and somewhat mystical SOS have a bent that askews the results to insure the powerful remain that, even if in their own mind? Does it reward only the current year's performance without regards to past history or prejudice? The possibilities are as endless as time itself.

So... join in. Nothing is heresy, well except speaking ill of the ESPNSEC, but that is, of course, only my observation.

[promanmiller]

I'm not sure what formulas CCR124 is using.
I'm running a personal predictor poll and it has Nebraska 23rd and UCLA 24th. Oregon St. is 11th. The reason my predictor has Nebraska higher is because their offense and defense are performing better across the 5 game season. If they were to play again my prediction says that Nebraska would win by .36 points.

My Predictor Lines
Nebraska +3 OSU
UCLA -30 Cal

Now, your personal predictor makes a lot more sense to me based on what the three teams have displayed to date. Oregon State seems the most impressive to me, especially in their game against UCLA. Their defense has been particularly stout. Thanks.

Patrick

[billybud]

Latest stats...against FBS only...

Scoring Offense...
Nebraska...#21
UCLA........#24
Oreg. St.....#72

Scoring Defense...
UCLA......#31
Oreg. St...#32
Nbraska...#48