Fatal Foursome . . .

[Cane from the Bend]

With all of the top 4 winning tonight, the BCS will spin its spool tight, and expect us to buy what they have for sale. (I guess, since it's the only purchase in town, there isn't much of a choice . . . except to spin the wheel first)

So, in front of us, we have the supposed nations best 4. Alabama, Kansas State, notre dame, Oregon.

Going by the total body of work, and the schedule which lies ahead; I believe we can guesstimate a rational sequential variant of who should top out in the 4 coveted highest rankings.

I list them in this order:

#1 Alabama (though their ame with LSU was close; they overcame the wave of momentum thrashed over them, and pulled off a very exciting come-from-behind win in an extreme environment . . . not to mention LSU is a top competitor, and had everything to play for)

#2 Kansas St (continues to impress; and though, once they got out in front of Oklahoma State, the Wildcats never fell behind . . . the Cowboys did garner some momentum, and K. State was able to flex their muscle, and finish the game off)

#3 Oregon (they have, to this date, had a stronger schedule than the team I list below {in my opinion} and have a more difficult road ahead of them . . . oh, and the only real competition left for the team below, more or less got ran by the ducks tonight {let's face it; starting the last play of the game with only 5 seconds on the clock and scoring a touchdown truly means very little when your down 62-45 --- so what if the final was 62-51, there wasn't any time left on the clock . . . get out the chocolate cake, and eat it with your comfort points, fat girl}

#4 notre dame (okay, yes, they are still undefeated; if you watched that game, you wouldn't understand how this could be . . . one thing you can ascertain from what took place . . . nd did not lose that game, but not because they were good enough to win . . . a horrible pass interference call on 4th down which would have had Pitt with ball leading by 14 {player of the game, the zebra with a yellow piece of fabric}, a missed field goal in 2cnd overtime {Pitt chose the wrong avenue there} . . . okay, enough about tonight; how about, the teams above also have played and beaten teams on your schedule, and have looked more impressive throughout the season . . .

You could interchange 3 & 4, however, assuming nd wins their game vs usc, it will be the trojans' fourth loss, meaning it would also adversely affect Oregon's SoS.

To that same effect; the Ducks beating Stanford would see the Cardinal fall to 3 losses . . . which also would hurt the irish's schedule strength.

Anyhow; that being posted, what about a finale'?

Yes, I have a projection, based purely upon what has taken place:

Alabama vs. Kansas State BCS National Championship game

And even though it is likely for the Rose Bowl to pluck up Oregon & the poor sap Big Ten team who will get stuck on that slope . . . It would be a much more interesting game, to see Chip Kelly's offense vs. Brian Kelly's Defense . . . how's `bout them Roses ? ? ?

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[Eric]

It's going to be a tough, late call. The computers will no doubt favor Kansas State. The question is how much. The humans have 2/3 control over the BCS, so Oregon will get the love there. If the computers like Kansas State a lot more than Oregon, then that's how they can sneak in. Oregon is after all going to close the gap by playing Stanford, Oregon State, factoring in the USC victory tonight, and then getting a 13th game against the South champion (most likely the UCLA/USC winner). I think that'll be enough to boost them ahead of Kansas State when it's all said and done. But it's in flux to be sure.

It's actually a little relieving that Notre Dame isn't getting automatic bonus points for being Notre Dame. Usually I would assume in this scenario that Notre Dame would be the number two team due to the hype factor, but the pollsters are doing a good job of ranking the teams as far as I see it.

[billybud]

The Irish certainly had the luck of the Irish on their side...Pitt only needs to chip in the short FG for the upset...and it's a miss.

[Derek]

The problem with Notre Dame being ranked so high is that they get that Automatic Berth in a game.

I'm torn with them in the USC game. I might actually pull for USC this time, as my hate for ND and their ruining a BCS game for some group of fans, outweighs my disklike of USC and Kiffin.

So much hate.

[Cane from the Bend]

Oregon is after all going to close the gap by playing Stanford, Oregon State, factoring in the USC victory tonight, and then getting a 13th game against the South champion (most likely the UCLA/USC winner). I think that'll be enough to boost them ahead of Kansas State when it's all said and done. But it's in flux to be sure

You maybe right . . . however:

Oregon State plays @ Stanford this up coming weekend --- So, One of these teams is going to take a rankings hit, for sure, prior to the Ducks playing either of them.

Then, Oregon St takes a hit in the SoS department at the end of the season . . . because their game with Nicholls St got postponed to Dec. 1rst.

So, whereas the human polls may reflect bias for Oregon, primarily due to there Love of offense; the Computers are gonna reflect a sour down turn on the Ducks' schedule strength.

There is a possibility Oregon can look better to the computers, if; UCLA wins out.
UCLA presently only has 2 losses
Oregon doesn't play UCLA in the regular season
UCLA is currently ranked higher than USC

If the Ducks wind up replaying USC in the CCG, and assuming nd beats the Trojans; usc would finish with 5 losses. And the voter may be less impressed by that.

If UCLA wins out, then the Ducks will face a 10-2 team; and likely a top 8 opponent. Which would look a whole lot more impressive.

On-the-other-hand; UCLA winning out, also means usc & Stanford take another loss. Assuming Stanford loses to Oregon, the Cardinal finish at best, with only 4 losses (could be 5 if they lose to Oregon St this weekend) --- as well, usc would still finish with 5 losses too.

And so, even seeing the road becoming harder for Oregon . . . Oregon's opponents of value are about to weaken the DUcks' SoS by knocking eachother down.

Which is the one problem K. State is potentially suffering.

The Big XII might very well be beating itself up right now . . . but so is the pac 12.

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[Eric]

Wouldn't this scenario still help Oregon's SOS? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm working with the assumption that SOS is only as good as the teams you've played in the past. Isn't Oregon's current SOS determined by the 9 teams they've defeated thus far? So upon playing Oregon State, Stanford, and UCLA/USC, even if they beat up on each other a little bit, the SOS would increase relative to where it is now because those teams are higher ranked than Tennessee Tech, Fresno State, Washington State, etc.

I think even if those teams do lose some ground in the computer rankings, the computers are still going to view them as relatively quality wins. If this is the case, I don't know if Kansas State is rated so highly above Oregon in the computers that they can hold them off against the popular will.

[donovan]

I think you are correct on Oregon, or any other team that is out there, Eric. And that is exactly what drives me nuts...well..among a myriad of other things, only some pertaining to football....

1. You have no idea what SOS is based on. Every ranker has a different criteria and they keep it proprietary. Even if they tell you what the items the track are, you do not no the weight and even if they tell you, which none of them do, how much they weight them, you never can duplicate it because they want to keep is a secret. Its not Coca Cola, so not sure why it has to be a secret other than it gives them a product to sell.

2. You start off the year with an SOS ranking. Based on what? Last year(s) performance. On some subjective argument that school A is bigger and better, faster and stronger than school B?

3. As we have seen year after year, you can not make great leaps in the ladder. Sure you may get close but no cigar.

So.....how about this.....if SOS is necessary..which I doubt it is....Have everyone start out with no SOS, after all this year should stand independent of previous years. Then after the first game, let the computer SOS rankings based on whatever the criteria is take over. At least then you would not have prejudice until the first game.

Or better yet, like it was when I was a kid. Practice had to be over by 5:30 so the players could get home and do the farm chores....I was a city kid and that didn't affect me...but it was exactly what happened. Just like school was out for the year when the strawberries turned ripe and needed to be picked. Can not have the pickers sitting in some classroom.

After tomorrows election, I fear SOS will be very important....but who will save us, from ourselves.

[Spence]

I think SOS only matters if you can use it to determine the strength of the team. As we have discussed in the past, all strength of schedule does now is compare teams strength of schedule. You can't use it to compare teams because it doesn't provide a component to get from strength of schedule to strength of team. Alabama would be a great team even if the played the 12 worst teams in the country during the regular season. You just wouldn't know how strong they might be. That is the problem with SOS as I see it. --- my "objective" opinion.

[Eric]

That is exactly correct, Spence. SOS can be a useful metric, but I think there's a lot of subjectivity involved. People can't discount Boise State (sorry to harp on this story from 2009/2010, Donovan ) because they played in the WAC at the time. They could be great, they could be roughing up on inferior competition. Maybe you can hold it against them that they are less deserving than another team, but that doesn't mean that the other team is better necessarily; it just means they got an opportunity to prove it. You can pin the blame on the AD and the people involved in making the schedule, but it's not like the players have control over their opponents.

To give an example when it comes to polling, if I had to rank teams based on power, I would assume that Toledo isn't much better, if at all, when compared to teams like Tennessee, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, etc. But I did decide to rank Toledo. They look hot right now and their only loss was in Week 1 on the road to an Arizona team that has shown that they can play with some good teams. I'm not going to hold that against the Rockets. Maybe if they have played a tougher schedule though they wouldn't be 8-1. But I'm going to give them the tentative benefit of the doubt of being #25 in my poll, at least for the time being.

[Cane from the Bend]

The problem with this sort of rationale, is that you are assuming the people in control of the rankings hold this sort of ethic when formulating their opinion.

I am not referring to who I personally feel should play for any championship; rather, the continued emphasis the media harps on schedule strength.

No matter how you cut it, a win over a 1 or 2 loss usc team looks a lot more impressive than if the trojans finish with 4 or 5 losses.

The voter will proclaim the same time told mantra; "they weren't as good as we thought they were".
That sort of thinking does not increase your teams impressiveness.

The same goes for Oregon St and Stanford.

Losing 2 more games is not going to raise your ranking.
And as Oregon plays these teams, they will play them after a rankings drop.

That is not going to improve your schedule strength.
As the teams you play lose, the computer ranks the value of your schedule.

No matter how you cut it, the teams you play losing, only help when you're the team that beats them.
Any other losses are adverse to your progress.

I remember back when Tyrone Willingham was coaching nd, and the irsih were 5-6 with one game left to play.
The big question wasn't simply, will nd play in a bowl game . . . because . . .
with the teams nd had played, even if the irish would have won their last game, it wasn't enough.

That year, Syracuse had to win their last game, or the irish were going to be left out of the post season.
Because of the computers strength of schedule formulation.

Of course, this didn't matter, due to nd losing their last game . . . however, this is a real example of how SoS does factor in.


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[billybud]

There is a reason that FSU (with only one 1 point loss) is behind two loss South Carolina....it is the judged difficulty of the wins/losses.

South Carolina lost to a top ranked team...FSU lost to a bad team.....wins and losses have values...and that is as it should be.

[donovan]

Let's say team A beats team B. The SOS should apply to both teams on how they have performed against the strength of their schedules up to that game. After that game no matter what either team does should not change the weighting of the SOS for the game they played prior. A lot of things can happen to a team as the season progresses. Why does Team A or team get punished because either team has changes, for good or bad on a game that was played 4 weeks ago. The problem with SOS it is hardly good in theory and objectively impossible in reality.

PS Have we had this discussion before, my memory is getting as short. No, not as short as that...nothing can be that short.

[Cane from the Bend]

Let's say team A beats team B. The SOS should apply to both teams on how they have performed against the strength of their schedules up to that game. After that game no matter what either team does should not change the weighting of the SOS for the game they played prior. A lot of things can happen to a team as the season progresses. Why does Team A or team get punished because either team has changes, for good or bad on a game that was played 4 weeks ago. The problem with SOS it is hardly good in theory and objectively impossible in reality.

PS Have we had this discussion before, my memory is getting as short. No, not as short as that...nothing can be that short.

Again, you are assuming ethics into rankings . . . and if I am not mistaken . . . that is precisely what you claim drives you nuts about this sort of logic.

I am basing my projections off of how the polls rate a value of schedule.
Not my own personal opinion.

Once you separate what I have posted, from what I have stated as personal opinion, you will understand the logic behind my subject matter.

I am not formulating my rankings off of these scenarios.
I am reading into the pattern of the BCS poll voters.

I do not have a vote; nor do I pretend to.

I have not submitted a voter poll to this website; as I haven't presently the time that it would take to objectively build a concise interpolation of viewed performance vs wins/losses, plus other criteria, that would comprise a fair & unbiased field.

Maybe in the future I will participate as a CFP voter . . . right now, I choose to abstain.

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Objectively

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[donovan]

I think you are correct, I don't get it.