My Too-Early-Top-25

[Eric]

I'm already excited for August to get here, so I'm going to unveil the always-anticipated Too-Early-Top-25 (.....what, crickets? ). Here goes nothing:

1. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
3. Stanford
4. Clemson
5. Ohio State
6. South Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Georgia
9. Notre Dame
10. LSU
11. TCU
12. Florida
13. Texas
14. Michigan
15. Louisville
16. Boise State
17. Oklahoma
18. Florida State
19. Oklahoma State
20. Oregon State
21. Wisconsin
22. Nebraska
23. North Carolina
24. Washington
25. Northwestern

On the Cusp: Ole Miss, Miami, Fresno State, Northern Illinois, Kansas State

This is about where I'm at right now. Alabama's defense is going to be downright nasty and extremely difficult to defeat yet again entering next year. Texas A&M got a boost by getting Jake Matthews back to anchor that offensive line and they have to restructure about half of the defense, but they've got Johnny Manziel. That's why I can't put them any lower than #2; they have the best player in college football over the last five years at least. I'm going to buy Clemson for the time being with Tahj Boyd coming back with Sammy Watkins along with most of their offensive line. We'll find out how good they are off the bat as they open up against Georgia. I have a lot of question marks regarding Oregon without Chip Kelly, but they're still a threat and there's no telling what potential sanctions might do. Stanford is going to be a force to reckon with yet again. I'm leaning towards South Carolina being the class of the SEC East this season, but Florida and Georgia will obviously challenge. I think the Big 12 is going to come down to Texas and TCU with Oklahoma State being a sleeper.

For the lower half, I'm buying Michigan, and not really out of homerism. I'm usually pretty harsh on the Wolverines and my expectations are almost always tame and pessimistic. But I do believe that this team is ready to win the Big 10 and I expect them to lose to Notre Dame and Ohio State regular season, but beyond that, I think they'll be decent favorites over everybody else. Taylor Lewan coming back along with Gardner getting a full offseason of work at QB will surely help. Louisville is going to be getting a lot of hype, but I have them a little lower because a lot of it is fueled by the Sugar Bowl performance, which is just one game. They do get a lot of returners back and a soft schedule, so I expect them to go undefeated. I also believe Boise State, with Southwick a year older, is a threat to go undefeated and play in the BCS. Florida State's only question for me is the QB play. North Carolina is my big sleeper this year. I don't know if they'll win the ACC or not (probably not), but I think a 10 win season is possible. They do need to play much better defensively however. Ole Miss is a team I'm going to wait and see on. I don't get the vibe that they'll be as good as people are projecting, but they are probably a fringe top 25 team for me. We'll see how the season goes. They play Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU.

[armchairqb]

Eric, I'm glad you were the one to break the ice on this one...

1. Alabama
2. Stanford
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma State
8. Texas A&M
9. Louisville
10. Boise State
11. Oregon
12. UCLA
13. South Carolina
14. Florida
15. Florida State
16. Baylor
17. Oklahoma
18. Northwestern
19. Vanderbilt
20. Michigan State
21. Oregon State
22. Cincinnati
23. Texas
24. Arkansas
25. Louisiana-Lafayette

Notre Dame will be better in 2013, but that schedule is more of a monster than last year. They are at Stanford this year which won't be a close loss at all.

The Mountain West will be the mid-major to keep an eye on. Boise State will be better this year. Southwick will be a better QB.

Georgia loses very few players from last year and Alabama won't be on their regular season schedule. They will be in the SEC Championship Game again providing another smash-mouth classic and likely another close loss to Alabama. Alabama will reload seamlessly. A&M will have a hiccup as they are losing a few OL and who knows how they will handle being under the microscope. LSU's coaching atmosphere is dysfunctional; they start the year at Cowboys Stadium against TCU...with a loss.

Possibly undefeated again for Ohio State. Nebraska and Michigan State are not on their regular season schedule. Northwestern could give them their greatest test of the year; that will be week six and OSU will have played without a bye at this point. Pat Fitzgerald does a really good job coaching the players he recruits in an atmosphere where fan support can be indifferent at times. Michigan State's schedule will be easier than last year's, I predict 8-4.

Clemson will win the ACC. Hiring Brent Venables at DC moved them up a notch in 2012. And Tajh Boyd returns as QB. NC State could be the dark horse of the 2013 ACC.

I used to not be a fan of the Sun Belt until last year. If La-Lafayette QB Terence Broadway stays healthy/in school, they will beat Kansas State on the road. They nearly beat Florida on the road last year. Their coach, Mark Hudspeth, has achieved a lot with arguably not much raw player talent.

[Spence]

I like Clemson to make the championship game next year. You have to figure the Tide will be there. They have a favorable schedule and if they get the early win over A&M they should get the momentum to stay very high in the polls.

[Eric]

Nice call on UL Lafayette. I'm not at the point where I can rank them, but Mark Hudsepth is a guy that they can't keep beyond 2013. I think they could win 9 or 10 games and are probably the favorite in the Sun Belt. They open at Kansas State and Arkansas, but I think a 1-1 split is wishful thinking. I can't see them having the ability on defense to win either of those, but crazier things have happened.

My only drawback on Clemson is that they face Georgia and South Carolina. Winning the big games is a monkey on Clemson's back that they only recently shook off (and they need to send Les Miles a thank you card for his clock management). I would still have questions about their mental toughness and their ability to pull out these kinds of games. I lean right now (8 months prior to kickoff) towards them beating Georgia.

I think it's easy to sleep on TCU because of their 7-6 record. But this was a team that was so youthful and not far removed from winning a few of those close games and Casey Pachall is coming back. I don't see the Big 12 being as filled with landmines as it was last year where any team besides Kansas could beat you. Iowa State will be Iowa State, Baylor loses Florence, Kansas State loses Klein and defensive depth, West Virginia won't be nearly as potent offensively, Texas Tech is breaking in a new coach (although I think Kingsbury will succeed off the bat there), and Oklahoma loses a lot of offense and we don't know how Blake Bell will manage the offense full-time. LSU will reload defensively, but they are breaking in new faces. The fans will probably lean towards TCU making it a little bit less than a neutral field.

[Spence]

I think maybe Clemson got over the hump this year. Georgia and South Carolina give them the SOS points they need to jump a more traditional power that could be there.

[Eric]

I think maybe Clemson got over the hump this year. Georgia and South Carolina give them the SOS points they need to jump a more traditional power that could be there.

Yep, I'm in the same camp as you. I just feel very strange predicting Clemson to be in a national title.

If you had a gun to my head today, I would say Clemson vs. Texas A&M for the national title, but I wouldn't feel confident in that at all. Donovan will probably give me an earful, but if the dominoes fall into place, I think Boise State could emerge as a legitimate threat to play for a national title this year. College football is going to be pretty deep and a lot of the teams in the top 15 this year are not going to be elite. Louisville would have to be in this same discussion as well. I think an all-SEC affair could be a possibility between the second-seed in either the West or the East (imagine if Bama is sitting at 11-1 or Florida at 11-1 after championship weekend, something like that). But then again, the Pac-12 has a great shot at sending a team there between Stanford and Oregon depending on what Oregon's NCAA situation will be.

[donovan]

No gun.....we will know with this new format how "fixed" the selection is. If the top four does not include a Clemson or Boise or some other third tier team, that will have gone undefeated or one loss...then we can get out the conspiracy drums. Where we will see this is very early in the year if the top ten is absent a long shot. I would like to see a Clemson team too....especially when they have played solid football for a couple of years. If SOS is heavily used, then there is no hope because mid tier teams can not get a top SOS schedule...just can't happen. That is the one of the things I have learned to believe from being on this board.

[Spence]

SOS is rarely used to help a team's argument. It is most often used against a team.

[Cane from the Bend]

My only problem with Clemson, at the moment, is their recent history vs South Carolina.

Not only do they drop the game, they out right flop, and roll over in it.

.

Then there is that game vs fsu.

The `Noles do a fairly good job in this series.
To the Tigers' benefit, the game will be in Clemson.

.

If Clemson were to beat Georgia early, then they may ride the momentum wave.
But, I'm just not sold on their potential against yearly marquee opponents.

.

.

.

[Spence]

Yes, but beating Georgia, South Carolina, and FSU makes a good argument to make it to Pasadena.

[Cane from the Bend]

"IF" that were to happen ... it would certainly be hard to argue against the resume.

.

.

.

[Spence]

"IF" that were to happen ... it would certainly be hard to argue against the resume.

.

.

.

This time of year all we have is "if".

[Cane from the Bend]

heh, I usually find, that we only ever have 'ifs', irregardless of the time of year ... that is, until game week.

.

.

.

[Derek]

Georgia might lose their first two games. and start at 1-3 after losing to LSU.

But I wonder if they are trying to start the rivalry with Clemson back up....it used to be pretty heated.

[Swamp Daddy]

ESPN commentator Phil Steele talks about UL being in the top 10 to start next year. Interesting

Go here:

http://network.yardbarker.com/college_fo...m/13026121

for a short video of ESPN's Phil Steele predicting UL will be a preseason top 10 team.

Swamp Daddy