I think Michigan will lose at Wisconsin, split with MSU, and lose to Indiana again and then lose to Indiana in the tournament finals. That would leave them with five Big 10 losses regular season. Sounds to me like a three seed, but Wisconsin beating them would be an upset and it would be hard to lose to the same team three times, even if it is Indiana. They're still in the running for a 1 or 2, but I'm going with a 3 seed (objectively, I think they may get a 2, but I'm feeling very pessimistic). I think your 1 seeds will be Duke, Indiana, Florida, and Kansas. 2 seeds I'm thinking Syracuse, Arizona, Louisville, Gonzaga. 3 seeds for me in this scenario look like Michigan, Ohio State, Butler, and Missouri. To cap my bracketology at 4 seeds, I'll go with Michigan State, Miami, NC State, and Kansas State. Gonzaga is a bit of a reach on my part since they always find a way to flub some WCC game that they otherwise shouldn't (like they almost did on the road against San Diego). Butler could drop to 4 or 5 depending on how they finish out their A-10 schedule. This week should remind everyone that Butler shows up for big non-conference games but tends to have a few in-conference clunkers.
I think the Big 10 is having a great basketball season, but as a collective unit, we never win anything in the clutch. So if I'm allowed to eliminate every Big 10 team from the get-go, I think you take your pick between Florida, Kansas, and Syracuse for the national title. I'm leaning towards Wichita State being my Final Four sleeper, but that will all depend on what their bracket looks like.
Let's check back in March and see how well I did
